Cease To Padres per Passan

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

To be fair, Bowden's was a hypothetical.

You have to remember that Balta will use anything possible to support his negative takes, including made up trade proposals from a former incompetent GM who is widely panned by the broader baseball community.

[Whisox05]

 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

I’d say Caulfield has more credibility than Jim Bowden.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-legg-mason-miller-idUSKCN10M1DV/
 

This guy was the most famous stock pickers in the world, with the most credibility of anyone, even more than Warren Buffett even…he beat the S&P 500 Index a record 15 times in a row.

Most of the Rick Hahns of the world could only accomplish this feat maybe once every decade…as 90% plus of actively managed funds don’t even beat their indices.

But take a look at his track record from 2007-08-09 through today.

He’s probably in the Bottom 5-10% overall during these past fifteen years..

Was he a success or failure?

Were those who invested in him after that impeccable record of success idiots or merely unlucky?

 

https://www.forbes.com/profile/stewart-horejsi/?sh=6db14a863aa3

Likewise, is this guy one of the smartest, luckiest or most credible to end up with $2.8 billion dollars from investing all his money with Berkshire Hathaway beginning in the 1980’s?

 

Success and credibility are often times a product of sheer luck and being in the right place at the right time.

Edited December 1, 2023 by caulfield12

[Bob Sacamano]

I really wish Youtube TV still had MLBN. I liked having the Winter Meetings coverage on in the background during the work day the last couple of years.

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Were you surprised by the Giolito return?

Yes, positively so. As with basically each pitcher traded last deadline.

[Quin]

41 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Why not?

If Bradfield was the 3rd piece in a BAL deal why would we refuse that if we liked the top two pieces?

If Teel was paired with Mayer or Anthony, why would we say no?

You can't cry over spilled milk. Hahn sacrificed the pick in a last ditch attempt to get an allegedly close to MLB position player with an allegedly high floor so he could fill a roster spot on the cheap to save himself, and it didn't work. He didn't save himself and the player turned out not to be anywhere close to MLB ready, what does that have to do with Getz evaluating a trade package now?

It's over. We choked or in Teel's case, Boston stepped on our dick with work boots.

I would absolutely love to still have Kyle Teel. The draft is what it is. 

...I was being sarcastic (which, to be fair, is hard to read on the internet and I should have done greentext)

The Baltimore package I proposed early in the thread was Kjerstad, Bradfield, Povich, Nunez.

That was before a dozen teams reportedly started checking in on Cease and Rosenthal began talking of a "monster haul," cause now I've got stars in my eyes (what are the weird odds we could swap Hall for Povich?)

[bmags]

25 minutes ago, Quin said:

...I was being sarcastic (which, to be fair, is hard to read on the internet and I should have done greentext)

The Baltimore package I proposed early in the thread was Kjerstad, Bradfield, Povich, Nunez.

That was before a dozen teams reportedly started checking in on Cease and Rosenthal began talking of a "monster haul," cause now I've got stars in my eyes (what are the weird odds we could swap Hall for Povich?)

I was looking at Toronto and just like, pouting and reading Arjun Nimmela's bio.

[Quin]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

I was looking at Toronto and just like, pouting and reading Arjun Nimmela's bio.

I'm gonna just keep trying to manifest Gonzalez into taking off and channeling all our negativity into an awesome 2024.

[South Side Hit Men]

40 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Pretty telling you have three Central teams…White Sox spending frivolously, Twins and Tigers pushing chips in but pushing limits of what ownership is willing to spend and the the Guardians a profit machine due to a minuscule payroll and 2022 playoff/ticket sales…and finally the Royals turning a typical small market profit due to perennially low payrolls since 2016-17 and the current subsidy system.

The fact that the White Sox didn’t get hurt by the RSN/Bally fiasco tells you everything you need to know…that there’s not even a pretense of attempting to compete anymore at this point when rivals are basically tapped out and subtracting in Minnesota and Cleveland (Bieber, Quantrill, new manager) and Tigers only ones actually intent on improving their team for 2024.

Bally's impacted the net worth of Detroit and Minnesota in preceding the 2023 season., but not 2022 net income. Payroll and a slight edge with the two non revenue spending teams (Chicago and Detroit) in TV revenue are really the only significant differences across the Forbes reported numbers. I wonder what MLB Revenue Sharing estimates for Cleveland, Kansas City and Minnesota are included, as I'd expect their "additional" revenue to reflect that, but it's the same across all five teams.

A $53M operating loss is 2.5% of White Sox value, or less than half of what a typical 5% money market pays today.

All known Forbes amounts listed, 

Forbes Reported 2022 American League Central Financials

1. $2.05B #15 Chicago White Sox 7% Debt/Equity
   • $276M Revenue ($90M MLB + $73M Gate + $60M TV +  $53M Additional)
   • $329M Expense ($213M Players + $116M Everything Else)
   • $53M Operating Loss
2. $1.45B #21 Detroit Tigers 12% Debt/Equity
   • $260M Revenue ($90M MLB + $49M Gate + $60M TV + $61M Additional)
   • $286M Expense ($158M Players + $128M Everything Else)
   • $26M Operating Loss
3. $1.39B #22 Minnesota Twins 20% Debt/Equity
   • $267M Revenue ($90M MLB + $68M Gate + $42M TV + $67M Additional)
   • $294M Expense ($172M Players + $122M Everything Else)
   • $27M Operating Loss
4. $1.30B #25 Cleveland Guardians 8% Debt/Equity
   • $268M Revenue ($90M MLB + $57M Gate + $55M TV + $65M Additional)
   • $228M Expense ($91M Players + $137M Everything Else)
   • $40M Operating Income
5. $1.20B #27 Kansas City Royals 23% Debt/Equity
   • $260M Revenue ($90M MLB + $54M Gate + $45M TV + $71M Additional)
   • $227M Expense ($112M Players + $115M Everything Else)
   • $33M Operating Income

[Vote4Pedro]

44 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I really wish Youtube TV still had MLBN. I liked having the Winter Meetings coverage on in the background during the work day the last couple of years.

Sign up for a free trial of like directvstream for that week and the cancel afterwards. That’s what imma do this year 

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, Vote4Pedro said:

Sign up for a free trial of like directvstream for that week and the cancel afterwards. That’s what imma do this year 

I was thinking of doing that for Sling TV lol. Although, looking at the price, I might ask the people I share YouTube TV with if they want to switch. Wouldn't save significantly more but every bit helps these days I guess.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

1 hour ago, Whisox05 said:

 

80 grade backpeddling skills.  

[wrathofhahn]

On 11/29/2023 at 10:48 AM, oldsox said:

I like Atlanta's top pitching prospects.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles go all in. Their owner is too cheap to sign free agent pitching, they don't have really guys rocketing up the minors pitching wise, and there is overlap among some of their position prospects.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

None of us ever called it a rumor, I specifically called it a "Suggested package".

But a few things together - the Arizona package, Atlanta supposedly being involved, Bowden's speculation here - these are reasons to think that the White Sox fans are dramatically overestimating Cease's value.

And if that is the case, that's how I get to "I have no idea why you would move him right now rather than waiting to the deadline." As I said in the first post. 

Funny you don’t bring up Heyman & Rosenthal claiming we should receive a “monster” package.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Yes, positively so. As with basically each pitcher traded last deadline.

So is it fair to say you don’t have a great read on the market or are you saying the market is considerably worse than it was at the deadline?

[wrathofhahn]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So is it fair to say you don’t have a great read on the market or are you saying the market is considerably worse than it was at the deadline?

Deadline is usually best time to move guys but the free market has been so crazy so who knows.

But usually it's the old saying everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face aka everyone usually overrates their own guys on paper before the season starts. It's only when the real games stat  and they struggle then realize their pitching is going to cost them a chance at a championship or postseason that the best opportunity presents itself.

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Funny you don’t bring up Heyman & Rosenthal claiming we should receive a “monster” package.

First, the triumphant views are getting plenty of play in the thread from everyone else. Note what happens when anyone questions that.

For example, Nightingale said the Braves were definitely involved and basically the whole thread shrugged off that concept because the Braves don't have enough, so the groupthink has no problem dropping a rumor from a sometimes legit source if it doesn't fit the narrative.

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So is it fair to say you don’t have a great read on the market or are you saying the market is considerably worse than it was at the deadline?

I did not have a good read on it at the trade deadline. I'll take that.

Did you think that Anderson was getting released?
Do you think that Oakland came away with a positive result in the biggest trade last offseason, of Murphy to the Braves? Was the market last offseason just way worse than this offseason - if so, why is the trade market that different now?

I do think it's clear the Market is less than it was at the trade deadline. Lance Lynn got $10 million. The Dodgers took on $4 million for Lance Lynn at the deadline and also gave up their #8 prospect at the time - would you trade Nastrini for $6 million right now? Giolito and Lopez brought back a top 100 prospect, are they bringing back top level money for their positions now?

[Whisox05]

The Mets also looked into all proven starters available in trade, including White Sox ace Dylan Cease, who’d make more sense for the Mets than others since he’s contractually bound to his team for two more years.

However, Cease won’t be easy to acquire, as other teams have more prospect capital.

[Tnetennba]

3 minutes ago, Whisox05 said:

The Mets also looked into all proven starters available in trade, including White Sox ace Dylan Cease, who’d make more sense for the Mets than others since he’s contractually bound to his team for two more years.

However, Cease won’t be easy to acquire, as other teams have more prospect capital.

Haha yeah, good luck with that Mets. 

[Sleepy Harold]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Funny you don’t bring up Heyman & Rosenthal claiming we should receive a “monster” package.

Passan also said today a "hefty" package FWIW.

[Quin]

7 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Haha yeah, good luck with that Mets. 

It's another bidder and only strengthens the argument for selling Cease now instead of mid-season.

A lot of the high rollers are gonna have disappointed fans once Shohei signs somewhere. Snell, Yamamoto and Montgomery won't cost as much, but will still have a hefty price — and there's still only three of them.

[Pale Sox]

18 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Haha yeah, good luck with that Mets. 

Their top 3 guys on pipeline are all the types I imagine Getz drooling over. Speedy, grindy, and really short (5’8”, 5’9”, 5’6”). 

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, Quin said:

It's another bidder and only strengthens the argument for selling Cease now instead of mid-season.

A lot of the high rollers are gonna have disappointed fans once Shohei signs somewhere. Snell, Yamamoto and Montgomery won't cost as much, but will still have a hefty price — and there's still only three of them.

That's fine...but then you potentially have let's say Gilbert Bieber and Glasnow to consider, too.

[Tnetennba]

22 minutes ago, Quin said:

It's another bidder and only strengthens the argument for selling Cease now instead of mid-season.

A lot of the high rollers are gonna have disappointed fans once Shohei signs somewhere. Snell, Yamamoto and Montgomery won't cost as much, but will still have a hefty price — and there's still only three of them.

By all means, drive up the price.  The more bidders the merrier. 

[Timmy U]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

That's fine...but then you potentially have let's say Gilbert Bieber and Glasnow to consider, too.

Not sure Gilbert is on the market and neither Bieber nor Glasnow has Cease's value.  They are both in their last year of control.  And anyone who points to Cease's loss of velo ought to look at Bieber. He's lost 3+ mph over the last few years. That's without considering his arm injury at the end of the year.  He's buyer beware as far as I'm concerned.