Cease To Padres per Passan

[Tnetennba]

54 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox asked the Reds for 2 top 100 prospects and the Reds said yes? Why didn't anyone change the thread title to say that he had been traded. 

Where did I say the Reds said yes? I never actually said he was worth 2 top 100, those are your words. Yet every reputable source says Cease is in high demand and should bring back a haul, and while that is a nebulous statement, I choose to believe the people in the know. 

Your desire to be obtuse and pedantic doesn't interest me, enjoy your own echo chamber for all I care.

[WestEddy]

29 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Rushing is too redundant with Quero unless they trade one of them.

Well, yeah. Once one of them establishes themselves as the major league starter, trade the other. 

[Tnetennba]

4 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Because teams have scouting departments who can see that the slight loss in velocity may be related to mechanics, and not injury or age? And even with the off year, Cease was still an above average pitcher. Just like teams won't be imagining that Blake Snell will win the Cy Young for the next 7 years. 

A competent org helps him analyze what went wrong with his slider, and if the velo loss is permanent, helps him pitch over that. Or teaches him new ways to attack hitters with a reduced FB.

Acting like 2023 Cease is who he will be going forward is silly. Will he be 2022 again? Who knows, but I think its just as likely he is better in 2024 and is closer to the Cy Young candidate we saw in '22.

[steveno89]

29 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The poster I was replying to was the one who said "one top 100 prospect + another piece (what I think Cease should bring)" is "dogshit". That makes Giolito's return "Worse than dogshit".

I think it's curious too, but people need to put words in my mouth. It's totally fair to run with that, if people are going to put words in my mouth then I'm taking them to their conclusion.

No, I don't think Baltimore is "Desperate for a cheap, high quality starter." I think they know they could use additional starting depth, but I think they also know their prospects turning into decent big leaguers gives them a much longer window where they can be competitive, and that trading away too much too early risks shortcutting their window.

I think the Dodgers have always been quite prudent in who they give up, they are willing to part with pieces but not so much that it depletes their system, and if they spend on Ohtani they will know that they need to have some young talent left over to balance him out.

I think the Braves are looking to add starting pitching, but they also know how valuable having starting pitching prospect depth has been over the past 3 seasons because it's why they've been able to afford the big position player contracts they signed. They also know that there's no such thing as being "unbeatable in a 5 or 7 game series", and adding a pitcher with an xERA around 4 certainly doesn't make you immediately unbeatable. 

These teams aren't desperate. They know their resources and needs and are being calculating. 

Baltimore prospect strength is with position players, may of which are entering their mid twenties right now. 

They seriously lack pitching depth in the minor leagues and it would make a ton of sense to cash some of those prospects to fill an immediate need. 

Just because Cease has not been dealt yet does not mean there is a lack of demand out there. Sox will likely wait until free agent dominos fall to have a club pony up. 

[Bob Sacamano]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

No, he said I think "pitchers are going for absolute dogshit".

I've said repeatedly that Cease should bring back 1 top 100 prospect and another piece to go with him. This is dramatically less than the monster packages people think he should return of 2 top 100 prospects + more, so they can't help but exaggerate and say that "Balta thinks Cease should bring back absolute dogshit". 

Do the transitive property - I think Cease should bring back 1 top 100 piece and one piece outside the top 100, that is more than Giolito brought back, and they insist that I think "Cease should bring back absolute dogshit", therefore - 1 top 100 piece plus another prospect is therefore absolute dogshit. Giolito's deal, therefore, brought back worse than what they just called dogshit, so it's not worth talking about.

I don't think getting 2 top 100 prospects (or 1 and then another guy just outside the top 100), another organizational prospect in the 11-20 range, and possibly a 4th in the 20-30 range is necessarily a "monster return." This is probably close to what I would expect. If they do better than that, great.

I will admit, the proposals that have the O's sending 3 guys in the top 100 seem like a bit much.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Yep. Even at 1B, as a LHH with 55 hit/60 power he will clean Vaughn's clock in terms of production. 

If he could hack it at 2B that would be a dream but he'll still be useful without that, esp where Getz is building a speed/defense based team, since someone has to be able to bring in all the tablesetters. 

I'm having a really hard time seeing Busch as a can't miss hitter.Sure he put up great numbers at AAA last year but once upon a time the majority here viewed Vaughn as a can't miss top hitter and now Busch is going to clean his clock? Busch is older than Vaughn and is about as useful at 1st base as Vaughn. He's also not much faster than Vaughn ,26.9% vs 25.5 % in sprint speed.

The whole reason I like Outman better than Busch or Vargas last year was because Outman could play all 3 OF positions very well and has near elite speed a shade below Robert. If the bat failed he wouldve still been a likely guy to be a strong side of a platoon and or at worse a 4th OF who can PH, PR and play very good defense.

If Busch fails to hit you have nothing and he doesn't fit the Getz profile for what he's looking for.Of course the Dodgers are going to push hard for anyone to take Busch in a trade. Luckily the Dodgers didnt give him enough AB's to ruin his rookie status or less he'd be nowhere to be seen in the top 100 like the Sox did with Colas.

The fact that Busch is still the 44th ranked prospect in baseball is actually laughable. If the Dodgers had given him 58 more ABs he'd be just an ex top 100, 26 yr old who put up great AAA numbers who is useless anywhere but DH and 1st base .

How anyone can salivate over him because he is technically still 44th on MLB Pipeline and the Dodgers #2 prospect is beyond me. The only thing holding him in those rankings is 58 ABs he didnt get.

Miguel Vargas was the Dodgers 5th ranked prospect and #94 in MLB Pipeline a year ago. Why is no one still clamoring for him ? He's still 24, a switch hitter and the Dodgers played him more than Busch last year and he lost his rookie status so he's no longer ranked. He played more than Busch because he actually can run a little, play LF, played a little 3B, 2B and 1st base no not well but better and way more versatile than Busch.

The Dodgers gave him a pretty good run from April through June then sent him down.  After he got sent down in 60 games in AAA he hit 10 HRS , 407 OBP .886 OPS.

 

 

[SoCalChiSox]

18 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm having a really hard time seeing Busch as a can't miss hitter.Sure he put up great numbers at AAA last year but once upon a time the majority here viewed Vaughn as a can't miss top hitter and now Busch is going to clean his clock? Busch is older than Vaughn and is about as useful at 1st base as Vaughn. He's also not much faster than Vaughn ,26.9% vs 25.5 % in sprint speed.

The whole reason I like Outman better than Busch or Vargas last year was because Outman could play all 3 OF positions very well and has near elite speed a shade below Robert. If the bat failed he wouldve still been a likely guy to be a strong side of a platoon and or at worse a 4th OF who can PH, PR and play very good defense.

If Busch fails to hit you have nothing and he doesn't fit the Getz profile for what he's looking for.Of course the Dodgers are going to push hard for anyone to take Busch in a trade. Luckily the Dodgers didnt give him enough AB's to ruin his rookie status or less he'd be nowhere to be seen in the top 100 like the Sox did with Colas.

The fact that Busch is still the 44th ranked prospect in baseball is actually laughable. If the Dodgers had given him 58 more ABs he'd be just an ex top 100, 26 yr old who put up great AAA numbers who is useless anywhere but DH and 1st base .

How anyone can salivate over him because he is technically still 44th on MLB Pipeline and the Dodgers #2 prospect is beyond me. The only thing holding him in those rankings is 58 ABs he didnt get.

Miguel Vargas was the Dodgers 5th ranked prospect and #94 in MLB Pipeline a year ago. Why is no one still clamoring for him ? He's still 24, a switch hitter and the Dodgers played him more than Busch last year and he lost his rookie status so he's no longer ranked. He played more than Busch because he actually can run a little, play LF, played a little 3B, 2B and 1st base no not well but better and way more versatile than Busch.

The Dodgers gave him a pretty good run from April through June then sent him down.  After he got sent down in 60 games in AAA he hit 10 HRS , 407 OBP .886 OPS.

 

 

I believe with the BA update they now have Busch as No. 1 in LAD system even above Rushing and even though I think in the commentary/chat I think BA said decent shot Rushing sticks at C. Given that Rushing is a high OBP and good SLG too, Busch's bat must be truly legit for him to outrank Rushing even with no glove at all.

Regarding Outman, i don't want him as the primary piece because there is extreme JAG risk. Yes he does alot of things OK but he's projected to be about a 2 win player next year. Last year he only hit 248 even tho his babip was 343. If AVG plummets to 200, his BB isn't gonna matter too much.

If we are going to get one hitter and one SP from LAD I don't want it to be him and I don't see LAD letting him be a third piece so there's a problem there. 

Edited December 6, 2023 by SoCalChiSox

[oldsox]

I'm actually impressed by Getz for showing some restraint.  You just know they were gonna try to fleece him.  We'll see.

[fathom]

 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

 

Cue the Balta signal!

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I believe with the BA update they now have Busch as No. 1 in LAD system even above Rushing and even though I think in the commentary/chat I think BA said decent shot Rushing sticks at C. Given that Rushing is a high OBP and good SLG too, Busch's bat must be truly legit for him to outrank Rushing even with no glove at all.

Regarding Outman, i don't want him as the primary piece because there is extreme JAG risk. Yes he does alot of things OK but he's projected to be about a 2 win player next year. Last year he only hit 248 even tho his babip was 343. If AVG plummets to 200, his BB isn't gonna matter too much.

If we are going to get one hitter and one SP from LAD I don't want it to be him and I don't see LAD letting him be a third piece so there's a problem there. 

I'm not advocating getting Outman from the Dodgers in a Cease trade. That ship has sailed even though Getz might ask for him the Dodgers wont part with him now. I'm saying if it wasn't for 58 AB's Busch wouldn't be a top 100 prospect anymore and he can't field a lick. Rankings are deceptive. Outman was never ranked and yet put up 4.4 fWar last year because he was a very good defender and baserunner to go along with OBP and power.

Excuse me If I don't trust your scouting report on Busch or the extreme risk of Outman becoming just a guy profile. If you still cant understand how Outman  always had a better chance than  Busch or Vargas to become a  useful MLB players I can't help you. Speed ,defense, athleticism and a discerning eye along with his power gave him an opportunity. Busch still can't get an opportunity because he doesnt possess useful tools beyond hitting. Even Vargas got more opportunities than Busch because he's faster and can play multiple positions although none of them very well.

Those other skills mean a lot when it comes to the opportunity to continue to get playing time. Unfortunately Vargas just didnt hit well enough or field well enough to stick but he did walk 12.5 % and K'd 20% and managed a .1 fWar and 85wRC+ in 81 games .

In 27 games Busch walked 9.8% K'd 33% and his fWar was a  -.5 and 49 wRC+. Skills give you opportunities. Even the Dodgers know that Vargas had enough skills to get him a chance over Busch. Should the Dodgers have given Busch more playing time over Vargas because of his ranking ?

 

[Sox_me]

Past couple of days, both locked on podcasts for Rangers and Diamondbacks have highlighted their GM's willingness to move top prospects for a tor pitcher and dh... Both talked about not spending in free agency and utilizing the trade market. Cease/Jimenez+cash? 

[Johno]

what i can see happening with the Sox is that all these free agent pitchers start signing with all the different teams and the market for Cease drys up.   with such, contact the orioles and make a deal 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Sox_me said:

Past couple of days, both locked on podcasts for Rangers and Diamondbacks have highlighted their GM's willingness to move top prospects for a tor pitcher and dh... Both talked about not spending in free agency and utilizing the trade market. Cease/Jimenez+cash? 

I think Eloy to the Dbacks makes a ton of sense.

[fathom]

4 minutes ago, Johno said:

what i can see happening with the Sox is that all these free agent pitchers start signing with all the different teams and the market for Cease drys up.   with such, contact the orioles and make a deal 

There will always be a market for Cease. Again, why do people not listen to NBB, and frankly, common sense?  No reason to trade him with all the top pitchers still available.

[Baron]

15 minutes ago, fathom said:

There will always be a market for Cease. Again, why do people not listen to NBB, and frankly, common sense?  No reason to trade him with all the top pitchers still available.

Absolutely. Just wait for the desperation to kick in. There's 1 player for alot of pitch needy teams. 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

21 minutes ago, Johno said:

what i can see happening with the Sox is that all these free agent pitchers start signing with all the different teams and the market for Cease drys up.   with such, contact the orioles and make a deal 

If the Yankees or Mets win the Yamamoto sweepstakes, the market for Cease will get that much more contested.

[SoCalChiSox]

14 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm not advocating getting Outman from the Dodgers in a Cease trade. That ship has sailed even though Getz might ask for him the Dodgers wont part with him now. I'm saying if it wasn't for 58 AB's Busch wouldn't be a top 100 prospect anymore and he can't field a lick. Rankings are deceptive. Outman was never ranked and yet put up 4.4 fWar last year because he was a very good defender and baserunner to go along with OBP and power.

Excuse me If I don't trust your scouting report on Busch or the extreme risk of Outman becoming just a guy profile. If you still cant understand how Outman  always had a better chance than  Busch or Vargas to become a  useful MLB players I can't help you. Speed ,defense, athleticism and a discerning eye along with his power gave him an opportunity. Busch still can't get an opportunity because he doesnt possess useful tools beyond hitting. Even Vargas got more opportunities than Busch because he's faster and can play multiple positions although none of them very well.

Those other skills mean a lot when it comes to the opportunity to continue to get playing time. Unfortunately Vargas just didnt hit well enough or field well enough to stick but he did walk 12.5 % and K'd 20% and managed a .1 fWar and 85wRC+ in 81 games .

In 27 games Busch walked 9.8% K'd 33% and his fWar was a  -.5 and 49 wRC+. Skills give you opportunities. Even the Dodgers know that Vargas had enough skills to get him a chance over Busch. Should the Dodgers have given Busch more playing time over Vargas because of his ranking ?

 

The fact that Outman came from nowhere to a 4 WAR season in of itself gives rise to the inference that he's a Dodgers lab created JAG masquerading as a savage. Dude has had several years of abnormally high BABIP in a row which is extremely unusual. Can some people be a little bit above 300 on avg? Sure. But year after of like 368 and 386 etc.? No. 

You want a guy with good OBP, decent speed and some power? Isn't that what we paid Beni for? To be 2018 Beni again once his wrist is healthy? Why are we trying to dump more resources into getting a similar profile to what we just paid 75m for? 

I think there's alot of pyrite in Outman and maybe we are mistaking it for gold. 

Regression will likely KILL him. 

I'd rather not have CWS holding the bag when Cinderella's magic carriage turns into a pumpkin.

As to Busch, I agree he basically only has two tools. It's important to keep in mind not everyone kills it from the beginning in MLB (Cowsers debut was similarly rough, yet BAL is fiercely fighting handing him over). We need savagery. The entire lineup cannot be a bunch of 5'9 180 limp dick speed and glove based players. You want to have a few of them fine, but someone has to hit and someone has to slug besides Robert. There has to be at least a handful of players who don't look like their nutsacks are in a cheese grater against RHP. 

[Chicago White Sox]

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by Chicago White Sox

[Tnetennba]

52 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Cue the Balta signal!

Can’t wait for the premature I Told You So’s 🙄. 
 

Meanwhile Getz, unlike his predecessor, seems to have an accurate read on the market and is in no rush to settle for less before teams get desperate. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

11 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

The fact that Outman came from nowhere to a 4 WAR season in of itself gives rise to the inference that he's a Dodgers lab created JAG masquerading as a savage. Dude has had several years of abnormally high BABIP in a row which is extremely unusual. Can some people be a little bit above 300 on avg? Sure. But year after of like 368 and 386 etc.? No. 

You want a guy with good OBP, decent speed and some power? Isn't that what we paid Beni for? To be 2018 Beni again once his wrist is healthy? Why are we trying to dump more resources into getting a similar profile to what we just paid 75m for? 

I think there's alot of pyrite in Outman and maybe we are mistaking it for gold. 

Regression will likely KILL him. 

I'd rather not have CWS holding the bag when Cinderella's magic carriage turns into a pumpkin.

As to Busch, I agree he basically only has two tools. It's important to keep in mind not everyone kills it from the beginning in MLB (Cowsers debut was similarly rough, yet BAL is fiercely fighting handing him over). We need savagery. The entire lineup cannot be a bunch of 5'9 180 limp dick speed and glove based players. You want to have a few of them fine, but someone has to hit and someone has to slug besides Robert. There has to be at least a handful of players who don't look like their nutsacks are in a cheese grater against RHP. 

What ? Now Outman is Benintendi ? Excuse me Beni can't even come close to playing CF and  can't play anything but left field , SPrint speed is 47% while Outmans is 93%. It's odd you're putting future Outman in Benintendi territory. 4.4fWar to 0 fWar. If he goes downhill Out as you said he's still likely to amass more WAR than Benintendi because he's a way better defender and way faster runner, takes more walks and has way more power.

If Outman becomes JAG he will be JAG in the majors. If Busch doesnt hit he becomes JAG in the minors.

He didnt come from nowhere. He wasnt a high draft pick but once the Dodgers fixed him he put up plenty of good numbers in the minors but as usual you are siting pedigree as a reason to downgrade someone like Outman while it enhances your evaluation of Busch.

I don't care if the Sox get Outman. Let's leave Outman out of the equation. I only brought him up as a reference point that rankings and pedigree are deceiving . I just dont want them to get Busch.

I do keep it in mind that not everyone kills its when 1st arriving in MLB .It's mostly why I would've still wanted Kelenic and Nootbaar while their stock was down but that was because they had more tools so if you dont become  what you are supposed to become maybe you can play a smaller role on an MLB team. What the Sox cannot afford to do is get a completely useless guy among the prospects they trade for . I understand you're looking for a savage but you're swinging for the fences when  you have to keep the floor in mind rather than dream about the upside savagery. With skilled players you might still get something from their floor. With Busch his floor is AAAA hitter.

 

[wrathofhahn]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm having a really hard time seeing Busch as a can't miss hitter.Sure he put up great numbers at AAA last year but once upon a time the majority here viewed Vaughn as a can't miss top hitter and now Busch is going to clean his clock? Busch is older than Vaughn and is about as useful at 1st base as Vaughn. He's also not much faster than Vaughn ,26.9% vs 25.5 % in sprint speed.

The whole reason I like Outman better than Busch or Vargas last year was because Outman could play all 3 OF positions very well and has near elite speed a shade below Robert. If the bat failed he wouldve still been a likely guy to be a strong side of a platoon and or at worse a 4th OF who can PH, PR and play very good defense.

If Busch fails to hit you have nothing and he doesn't fit the Getz profile for what he's looking for.Of course the Dodgers are going to push hard for anyone to take Busch in a trade. Luckily the Dodgers didnt give him enough AB's to ruin his rookie status or less he'd be nowhere to be seen in the top 100 like the Sox did with Colas.

The fact that Busch is still the 44th ranked prospect in baseball is actually laughable. If the Dodgers had given him 58 more ABs he'd be just an ex top 100, 26 yr old who put up great AAA numbers who is useless anywhere but DH and 1st base .

How anyone can salivate over him because he is technically still 44th on MLB Pipeline and the Dodgers #2 prospect is beyond me. The only thing holding him in those rankings is 58 ABs he didnt get.

Miguel Vargas was the Dodgers 5th ranked prospect and #94 in MLB Pipeline a year ago. Why is no one still clamoring for him ? He's still 24, a switch hitter and the Dodgers played him more than Busch last year and he lost his rookie status so he's no longer ranked. He played more than Busch because he actually can run a little, play LF, played a little 3B, 2B and 1st base no not well but better and way more versatile than Busch.

The Dodgers gave him a pretty good run from April through June then sent him down.  After he got sent down in 60 games in AAA he hit 10 HRS , 407 OBP .886 OPS.

 

 

 

Busch is 26. He should be dominating AAA pitching. His numbers down there mean nothing at this point other than his floor is AAAA player.

For me I'd put his value as someone just outside the top 100. He is certainly someone we should not be accepting as any sort of "headliner" back in a deal. I don't really want older prospects not only because is he is 26 still in the minors and that is for a reason. The dodgers know much more than any national scouting service and if they are burying him in the minors it's for a reason.

Secondly, I mean we are in the midst of a rebuild. We don't want to burn through the service time of guys on awful teams. We should be aiming for guys 2-3 years away which match up with our timetable.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

9 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

 

Busch is 26. He should be dominating AAA pitching. His numbers down there mean nothing at this point other than his floor is AAAA player.

For me I'd put his value as someone just outside the top 100. He is certainly someone we should not be accepting as any sort of "headliner" back in a deal. I don't really want older prospects not only because is he is 26 still in the minors and that is for a reason. The dodgers know much more than any national scouting service and if they are burying him in the minors it's for a reason.

Secondly, I mean we are in the midst of a rebuild. We don't want to burn through the service time of guys on awful teams. We should be aiming for guys 2-3 years away which match up with our timetable.

Thank you . That's the same argument I used for the starting pitching not being rookies if it can be helped and you echoed my sentiment on Busch. Maybe your post should've been aimed at SoCalChiSox my fellow lover of LH savery . Where me and him differ is that I need other skills besides the savagery.

[TheFutureIsNear]

None of the Dodgers top prospects are super enticing like other systems but a package that starts with Rushing and De Paula isn’t too shabby. Unfortunately, like Busch, most of their pitching prospects are 25+. 
 

Rushing + De Paula + Pages + a lotto ticket arm would be hard to say no to though

[caulfield12]

22 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

None of the Dodgers top prospects are super enticing like other systems but a package that starts with Rushing and De Paula isn’t too shabby. Unfortunately, like Busch, most of their pitching prospects are 25+. 
 

Rushing + De Paula + Pages + a lotto ticket arm would be hard to say no to though

We can get the Korean hurler we traded $1 million of intl. signing pool bonus money for the Dodgers to sign since we had no connection to him.  Yay!!!