tntoriole Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) The most consistent characteristic of Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal is methodical and process. They had a plan, they have executed the plan and they have a clear take on what Dylan Cease value is. They will not deviate , no matter how many Yankee rumors get leaked. Best GM and assistant GM in Os history and in MLB imho Sig by most accounts tends to be more prospect retaining Edited January 5 by tntoriole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 22 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I think the price has risen to Mayo, Beavers, & McDermott. Do we want Mayo? I wouldn’t be thrilled with that outcome, personally. I think he’s going to mash but he’s a RHH 1B. I’m just not that interested in another righty corner player. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 22 hours ago, Snowy Demon said: Dylan Cease may make the Orioles rotation better if his 2023 decline can be reversed. A big if here. Question remains about his rather noticeable velocity drop in his pitches. He did not do much in the post season either although it is just one bad start. If DL Hall develops into a decent starting pitcher, the Orioles will have very good rotation with Bradish (5 years), Rodriguez (6) and Hall (6) under control for a long time. Another big if. The Orioles will still be good and probably be in the playoff. It has been proven over and over again that anything happens in the playoff. Anyone beats anyone in the playoffs. Question is how much is the Orioles willing to pay for slightly increasing playoff chances without sacrificing long term success? Mike Elias built the Orioles that have depths in every single position in the majors and minors. Clearly, he is looking at a long term success and will not deviate from this plan. Oh my bad Sports guy, guess I had you confused with the other Orioles fan Snowy demon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Y2Jimmy0 said: Do we want Mayo? I wouldn’t be thrilled with that outcome, personally. I think he’s going to mash but he’s a RHH 1B. I’m just not that interested in another righty corner player. He’s a third baseman and he can stay at third. He just won’t for the Os because we have even better options. But it doesn’t matter, he’s not on the table anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said: Do we want Mayo? I wouldn’t be thrilled with that outcome, personally. I think he’s going to mash but he’s a RHH 1B. I’m just not that interested in another righty corner player. I agree. I’m not thrilled by the thought of Mayo as the headliner and only significant piece. I really hope the Yankees miss out on Snell because they line up very well with the Sox in many ways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said: Do we want Mayo? I wouldn’t be thrilled with that outcome, personally. I think he’s going to mash but he’s a RHH 1B. I’m just not that interested in another righty corner player. Agreed, if he can’t play 3B, I don’t understand the massive hype. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, tntoriole said: The most consistent characteristic of Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal is methodical and process. They had a plan, they have executed the plan and they have a clear take on what Dylan Cease value is. They will not deviate , no matter how many Yankee rumors get leaked. Best GM and assistant GM in Os history and in MLB imho Exactly why it’s pointless to discuss the Orioles as a destination for Cease. I don’t see it happening. I think the Yankees and Red Sox line up much better with the White Sox than the Orioles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: The only difference there is that there’s very little GRod data to go off and even Bradish doesn’t have a huge track record either. Cease has a 5 years track record that is held up by one amazing season and the rest are good but not great. With those projection systems, that longer track record means a lot. Btw, to be clear…I hate all the projection systems. I think they are complete bs. The only reason I even mentioned it is to say that we have a lot of fans who don’t like the idea of giving up much for Cease and while you guys seem to believe it a slam dunk that he will get really good again, there are people and systems out there that disagree with that. Im not one of those people but they exist. And this is all under the context of the idea that this article should make Os fans nervous…it just doesn’t, not even a little bit. Misleading. One of those years was his rookie year on a 72 win team and the other was the covid season where he got 12 starts. 2021 he was ascending. 2022 he was amazing. 2023 I would argue he was still good looking at underlying stats but he was on arguably the worst team in the league all things considered. Your 5 year track record shows a young pitcher who has become a very good pitcher, not some guy who had 1 good season 3 years ago and hasn't shown anything since. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frobby Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said: Do we want Mayo? I wouldn’t be thrilled with that outcome, personally. I think he’s going to mash but he’s a RHH 1B. I’m just not that interested in another righty corner player. I don’t think Mayo is coming in a Cease trade, but I’m curious why the concern about him being right-handed? Mayo had a 1.009 OPS vs. RHP this year, .880 vs. LHP. He can hit both. He’s actually hit RHP a little better than LHP each year of his career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rey21 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said: Do we want Mayo? I wouldn’t be thrilled with that outcome, personally. I think he’s going to mash but he’s a RHH 1B. I’m just not that interested in another righty corner player. Careful, can’t say the name Mayo, he’s the second coming of Manny Machado, all of Baltimore will implode if he’s talked about in any deal for any player Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said: Do we want Mayo? I wouldn’t be thrilled with that outcome, personally. I think he’s going to mash but he’s a RHH 1B. I’m just not that interested in another righty corner player. I’m probably in the minority here, but I think he has the skillset to play RF and would potentially be better than Kjerstad out there due to his arm. It would be different if the alternative were a true up the middle prospect, but if I have the choice between those two I’m going with Mayo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: He’s a third baseman and he can stay at third. He just won’t for the Os because we have even better options. But it doesn’t matter, he’s not on the table anyway. If Cease isn't a #1 starter, then Mayo is a first baseman 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I’m probably in the minority here, but I think he has the skillset to play RF and would potentially be better than Kjerstad out there due to his arm. It would be different if the alternative were a true up the middle prospect, but if I have the choice between those two I’m going with Mayo. I’m tired of moving first baseman types to the outfield. Please no. Hopefully Getz agrees with me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, T R U said: Your 5 year track record shows a young pitcher who has become a very good pitcher, not some guy who had 1 good season 3 years ago and hasn't shown anything since. And I'm wondering if the definition of "good" has changed. It seems our Baltimore friends are using good to mean barely adequate. We're all acting like GMs bank on a pitcher having a Cy Young season, and are sadly surprised when they don't. A player has a floor and a ceiling. Cease's ceiling is a CY contender. His floor is an above-average durable innings eater, one whose projections put him at the front of Baltimore's rotation. Seriously, if we're so stuck on the most recent season as the harbinger going forward, I'm not sure why the Orioles aren't signing Blake Snell, because he will surely win the Cy Young every season going forward, since he just won one. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 37 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I think the price has risen to Mayo, Beavers, & McDermott. Are you just saying things or have you maybe heard this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnetennba Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Frobby said: I don’t think Mayo is coming in a Cease trade, but I’m curious why the concern about him being right-handed? Mayo had a 1.009 OPS vs. RHP this year, .880 vs. LHP. He can hit both. He’s actually hit RHP a little better than LHP each year of his career. I think it's more that we've soured on one dimensional RH hitters whose bats don't make up the lack of other tools. Eloy and Andrew Vaughn come to mind. Not saying that's what Mayo will be, but 1B isn't or shouldn't be hard to fill and it shouldn't be a headlining piece in return. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, T R U said: Misleading. One of those years was his rookie year on a 72 win team and the other was the covid season where he got 12 starts. 2021 he was ascending. 2022 he was amazing. 2023 I would argue he was still good looking at underlying stats but he was on arguably the worst team in the league all things considered. Your 5 year track record shows a young pitcher who has become a very good pitcher, not some guy who had 1 good season 3 years ago and hasn't shown anything since. Fair enough, we can throw out the COVID year. And I never said anything even remotely like he had 1 good year 3 years ago and hasn’t shown anything since. However, if you look at 2022 (that wasn’t 3 years ago) and look at the rest of the years, I think it’s obvious what the outlier year is. I think it’s obvious that “one of these is unlike any other”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, T R U said: Misleading. One of those years was his rookie year on a 72 win team and the other was the covid season where he got 12 starts. 2021 he was ascending. 2022 he was amazing. 2023 I would argue he was still good looking at underlying stats but he was on arguably the worst team in the league all things considered. Your 5 year track record shows a young pitcher who has become a very good pitcher, not some guy who had 1 good season 3 years ago and hasn't shown anything since. His decline in 2023 was real, and is somewhat covered up by Fangraphs. Dylan Cease has a high K rate and a high walk rate - the high walk rate prevents him from being an elite pitcher unless he can also produce weak contact. Because Fangraphs doesn't take contact quality into account very much in terms of calculating FIP/WAR, Fangraphs drops this as a factor in how it evaluates him. In 2022, Dylan Cease was elite at preventing hard contact. This makes sense given his K-rate, he generated a lot of swings and misses and no one hit him hard. In 2023, Dylan Cease lost 1 mph from his fastball and dropped from the top 10% of the league in hard-hit rate to the bottom 50% of the league. That's a big change - Dylan Cease was allowing a ton of hard contact in 2023 that he avoided in 2022. He kept up the K rate, but when people made contact with him they hit him hard. Because Fangraphs doesn't take this into account, it decides that "allowing hard/weak contact" is all lumped into BABIP, Fangraphs underestimates how good Cease was in 2022 and says "Dylan Cease was only a top 10 pitcher in MLB" when we all saw a guy who was deserving of the #2 spot in the Cy Young race. Fangraphs says that Cease's best season was 2021 since it had his highest K-rate, and we all know that's wrong. However, it also then over-evaluates his 2023 performance by saying the hard contact he gave up was just bad luck, when he really took a big step back last year in what made him elite in 2022. The 5 year track record to me shows a guy with a high K rate, a high walk rate, a very reliable starter in taking the ball, but a pretty high variance in what I will get from him next year in terms of performance. If you think you can get the 2022 Cease out of him, then he's worth everything you trade for him and more. If you don't....well I'll stop there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, WestEddy said: And I'm wondering if the definition of "good" has changed. It seems our Baltimore friends are using good to mean barely adequate. We're all acting like GMs bank on a pitcher having a Cy Young season, and are sadly surprised when they don't. A player has a floor and a ceiling. Cease's ceiling is a CY contender. His floor is an above-average durable innings eater, one whose projections put him at the front of Baltimore's rotation. Seriously, if we're so stuck on the most recent season as the harbinger going forward, I'm not sure why the Orioles aren't signing Blake Snell, because he will surely win the Cy Young every season going forward, since he just won one. These GM's aren't stupid. They aren't going to look at Cease and say "Man, back in 2019 he had a 5.79 ERA and then in 2020 he only struck out 6.8 per 9 innings in 12 starts. I just don't think we can make this trade" They're going to see a young, controllable pitcher with elite stuff who has developed into the type of arm that you pay for whether that be money or prospects. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, Frobby said: I don’t think Mayo is coming in a Cease trade, but I’m curious why the concern about him being right-handed? Mayo had a 1.009 OPS vs. RHP this year, .880 vs. LHP. He can hit both. He’s actually hit RHP a little better than LHP each year of his career. They have an obsession with lefties because their park is better for lefties, just as ours is. But just like the Os, the WS need balance in the lineup. You can’t have 9 guys hitting left handed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, WestEddy said: And I'm wondering if the definition of "good" has changed. It seems our Baltimore friends are using good to mean barely adequate. We're all acting like GMs bank on a pitcher having a Cy Young season, and are sadly surprised when they don't. A player has a floor and a ceiling. Cease's ceiling is a CY contender. His floor is an above-average durable innings eater, one whose projections put him at the front of Baltimore's rotation. Seriously, if we're so stuck on the most recent season as the harbinger going forward, I'm not sure why the Orioles aren't signing Blake Snell, because he will surely win the Cy Young every season going forward, since he just won one. I mean, we all know why the Orioles aren't signing Snell, it's because Snell will earn $20 million a year and the Orioles seem overly hesitant to pay those prices. If the Orioles were willing to pay free agent prices, presumably this discussion would have ended long ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Mayo is 6’5”, 230. Unless he’s the second coming of Troy Glaus, I have a hard time believing he would stick at 3B for any team even if the Orioles decide to keep him and play him at 3B rather than move him to 1B. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Also, Dylan Cease now leads the league in swords. I don't see Coby Mayo leading the league in...shields...or something. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Tnetennba said: I think it's more that we've soured on one dimensional RH hitters whose bats don't make up the lack of other tools. Eloy and Andrew Vaughn come to mind. Not saying that's what Mayo will be, but 1B isn't or shouldn't be hard to fill and it shouldn't be a headlining piece in return. Calling Mayo a one dimensional player is just an ignorant comment that really says, I know nothing about him. But again, it doesn’t matter because he’s not available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: His decline in 2023 was real, and is somewhat covered up by Fangraphs. Dylan Cease has a high K rate and a high walk rate - the high walk rate prevents him from being an elite pitcher unless he can also produce weak contact. Because Fangraphs doesn't take contact quality into account very much in terms of calculating FIP/WAR, Fangraphs drops this as a factor in how it evaluates him. In 2022, Dylan Cease was elite at preventing hard contact. This makes sense given his K-rate, he generated a lot of swings and misses and no one hit him hard. In 2023, Dylan Cease lost 1 mph from his fastball and dropped from the top 10% of the league in hard-hit rate to the bottom 50% of the league. That's a big change - Dylan Cease was allowing a ton of hard contact in 2023 that he avoided in 2022. He kept up the K rate, but when people made contact with him they hit him hard. Because Fangraphs doesn't take this into account, it decides that "allowing hard/weak contact" is all lumped into BABIP, Fangraphs underestimates how good Cease was in 2022 and says "Dylan Cease was only a top 10 pitcher in MLB" when we all saw a guy who was deserving of the #2 spot in the Cy Young race. Fangraphs says that Cease's best season was 2021 since it had his highest K-rate, and we all know that's wrong. However, it also then over-evaluates his 2023 performance by saying the hard contact he gave up was just bad luck, when he really took a big step back last year in what made him elite in 2022. The 5 year track record to me shows a guy with a high K rate, a high walk rate, a very reliable starter in taking the ball, but a pretty high variance in what I will get from him next year in terms of performance. If you think you can get the 2022 Cease out of him, then he's worth everything you trade for him and more. If you don't....well I'll stop there. So of course 2023 is what he will be going forward, not 2022 or 2021. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.