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Why Sox would be better off drafting 7th and w/ worst 2024 MLB record (best lottery odds for 2025)...Ethan Holliday


caulfield12
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In 2024, the White Sox will have the 4th pick in rounds 2-20 due to their 61-101 record last year. Their first round pick won’t be known until the conclusion of the draft lottery. There’s a very good chance that the Sox land a top three pick and choosing in the top six is extremely likely. There is some question as to whether that’s the best outcome though. If the club lands a top six selection for the upcoming draft, they are ineligible for the lottery next year; similarly to this year’s Nationals. The highest the club would be able to pick would be 10th overall in the 2025 draft.

With rumors of more parts being sold off in the near future and the likelihood of winning not being a huge priority, it’s expected that the 2024 White Sox won’t be very good. There’s a real argument to be made that falling out of the lottery and choosing 7th overall in the 2024 Draft could ultimately be the best case scenario for the organization. This outcome would keep them in play for a top six selection in the 2025 draft and the club is expected to be one of the worst teams in the big leagues next year.

The 2024 draft class also doesn’t appear particularly strong. The best player in the class is a college first baseman. Two of the more exciting college prospects project as second basemen in the big leagues as well. The high school class appears to be underwhelming at the moment. Many of the college pitchers also present significant reliever risk. If the White Sox land a top five draft pick in December, they’ll very likely choose a good player next July. Falling out of the top six spots and remaining eligible to land Ethan Holliday in 2025 definitely doesn’t seem like a worst case scenario at this point though.

Edited by caulfield12
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  • caulfield12 changed the title to Why Sox would be better off drafting 7th and w/ worst 2024 MLB record (best lottery odds for 2025)...Jackson Holliday
  • caulfield12 changed the title to Why Sox would be better off drafting 7th and w/ worst 2024 MLB record (best lottery odds for 2025)...Ethan Holliday

Just goes to show how bad the last two seasons have been that I could care less who will be drafted first in 2025 because its practically guaranteed the Sox will get the fifth or sixth pick and then 10th in 2025.

Book it.

He’ll either turn into Gavin Sheets or honor his commitment to Oklahoma State instead.

https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=530129

Edited by caulfield12
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10 minutes ago, Flash Tizzle said:

So…the Sox need to overcome the low odds (17% chance) of selecting outside the Top 6 for the 2024 Draft. Then next year, they’ll need everything to fall their way to be selected for the 1st overall pick in 2025. Yeah we’re not that lucky.

Roughly 1/6 x let’s say 1/4=4-5% likelihood of actually happening

Edited by caulfield12
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