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Old: Mega Hendriks Speculation Thread

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1 hour ago, SonofaRoache said:

I'm not sure about this. The AL East would have gotten two. The Astros would have figured things out and the A's most likely would have been there til the end. It may have been between us and Cleveland. 

We're not talking about a 162 game season, Jack is talking about the ending standings. Jack implied, I assume because of their seed, that the sox got in due to expanded playoffs but thats actually wrong. Despite them having a seed outside the top 5 they would have been a playoff team under the previous playoff format.

If he's doing what would happen over full season nonsense then thats even more nonsensical.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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4 hours ago, fathom said:

Bernstein today had a long segment where he brought up a conversation he had with a Sox source. He said all the moves they made/make will only be for one year, and not to expect any multi-year big moves.  Seemed to imply they are considering waiting until the deadline for a closer.  Also said he was told the team would never sign someone to a mega-deal, as they don’t believe it’s worth it (Heyward was the example).  They do have money still to spend, but they’re too nervous about the pandemic to tie it up for more than 2021.

This doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. Didn’t you say yesterday that WSD had mentioned that they are deep in talks with Hendriks? Most of the national guys are saying they are in on him as well. Something strange is going on.

Edited by maloney.adam

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3 hours ago, bmags said:

I know. I'm just amazed that a front office source could have opinions like "long term deals never work out" when they work in baseball every day and have much better information than we do.

It's like they're stuck in the late 90s-early 00s. You don't see really see deals like Mike Hampton or Barry Zito anymore. Teams know how to judge talent and project how long a player will be good and how they'll decline. The Sox play in a space where the deals fail way more often, and the MLB scouting they do seems pretty bad so they're seldom successful at these low-end signings.

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3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I didn't think so either, but Bernstein specifically said that they weren't interested in multi-year deals right now. That's contradictory to being interested in Hendriks. 

I also hope that people realize that in a normal year the Sox do not make the postseason in 2020. 

Why wouldn’t they? They had the 5th best record. They’d be in the playoffs. 

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3 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Why wouldn’t they? They had the 5th best record. They’d be in the playoffs. 

Yeah and in a normal year they probably don't choke the division away in the last 2 weeks.

For Hendriks, I don't think we will get him. It just feels like whenever free agent pursuits drag on, the player ends up signing elsewhere.

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It sounds like Hendriks wants to be here but typical Reinsdorf being cheap. I don’t think Hahn is doing anything wrong, he’s just stuck with an owner who isn’t interested in spending money or doing what it takes to win championships. I’m now expecting them to resign Colome, maybe add Quintana and that’s it. Very underwhelming and disappointing. 

Edited by maloney.adam
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5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Why is it that baseball - which is an outdoor game - is the only league crying the end of worlds is here and we need everyone else to subsidize our problems.

Reinsdorf’s greed runs a world in need. 

5 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Lynn + Eaton as our offseason would be a failure for me. F.

 

They have work to do. 

Agreed, though Lynn, Katz and Cairo have been quality adds so far. I believe Hahn intends to add a SP and or late inning RP. A dream would also include a final OF to relegate Eaton to a fourth/fifth OFer, or shift Eloy to part/full time DH. 
 

That said, he also intended on hiring a manager with recent October managerial experience, but does not have final say in any of this beyond perhaps a Tim Beckham type decision.

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Portillos is dead to me. He just retweeted a ChiSoxSchins “scoop”

Edited by Orlando

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1 hour ago, maloney.adam said:

It sounds like Hendriks wants to be here but typical Reinsdorf being cheap. I don’t think Hahn is doing anything wrong, he’s just stuck with an owner who isn’t interested in spending money or doing what it takes to win championships. I’m now expecting them to resign Colome, maybe add Quintana and that’s it. Very underwhelming and disappointing. 

That would still make it a very good off-season and a much improved roster.

Not sure how that's underwhelming. 

 

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Just now, HOFHurt35 said:

That would still make it a very good off-season and a much improved roster.

Not sure how that's underwhelming. 

 

For a team with world series aspirations? Yeah. That's underwhelming. When the Yankees think they need help they sign Cole. When the Dodgers do, they trade for Betts. When the Nats did, they signed Corbin. When the Red Sox were ready, they traded for Sale and signed JD Martinez at his peak. When the Astros thought they were ready, they signed Reddick, Beltran, and eventually traded for Verlander. When the Cubs were ready, they signed Heyward, Zobrist, and traded for Chapman. 

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4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

For a team with world series aspirations? Yeah. That's underwhelming. When the Yankees think they need help they sign Cole. When the Dodgers do, they trade for Betts. When the Nats did, they signed Corbin. When the Red Sox were ready, they traded for Sale and signed JD Martinez at his peak. When the Astros thought they were ready, they signed Reddick, Beltran, and eventually traded for Verlander. When the Cubs were ready, they signed Heyward, Zobrist, and traded for Chapman. 

Other than Albert Belle, the Sox have never operated this way in my lifetime.  And with a Pandemic, I much less expected this to be the off-season they decided to drop a 9 figure contract on someone. 

But this time around it bothers me way less since I believe in what they have already here for a core.  

If the Sox are going to win a World Series, it's because of this core already here and not because of some unicorn free agent. 

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7 hours ago, bmags said:

I know. I'm just amazed that a front office source could have opinions like "long term deals never work out" when they work in baseball every day and have much better information than we do.

TEchnically - I think the Sox view is big FA long term deals don't work well. In general, they aren't wrong. I think instead they prefer to give LT deals to younger in house pitchers where they look to buy out arb years and kind of get locked in cost controll. They prefer the risk that the young player doesn't pan out and/or is less likely to have significant drop off from injuries vs. going 5YR plus in the FA pitching market (at huge bucks).  

If you think about Lynn and buy the reports - there trade may lean that way too...where they kind of think of Lynn making less today enabling them to maybe give him a 2-3 year extension at a good rate (Lynn is happy because it gets him one last big pay day without betting on an injury and I think the Sox are happy cause they probably look at the average AAV over that horizon and feel pretty good about what they did).  

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I agree 100%. Wish he’d realize that he loses credibility with every single tweet. Just unnecessary commentary and speculation 

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4 hours ago, almagest said:

It's like they're stuck in the late 90s-early 00s. You don't see really see deals like Mike Hampton or Barry Zito anymore. Teams know how to judge talent and project how long a player will be good and how they'll decline. The Sox play in a space where the deals fail way more often, and the MLB scouting they do seems pretty bad so they're seldom successful at these low-end signings.

You're kidding right?  If you set the number for a mega deal at $100,000,000 and you just look the least four years...Eric Hosmer, Cespedes, Chris Davis, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmerman... would all fall into the "ohmigod what have we done" category...that's about half of the mega contracts.  If you are confident that Springer isn't Justin Upton...who put up a 5.5 WAR the year before he left and about 4 WAR combined the next four years Or Jason Heyward who put up an average of 5.5  WAR for the four years before the big contract and about 1.5 WAR after the contract.  Big contract free agents are still a crap shoot.  

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49 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

That's a rough break for Portillos.  If you lose Orlando, you've lost Soxtalk.  

Lmao

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18 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

You're kidding right?  If you set the number for a mega deal at $100,000,000 and you just look the least four years...Eric Hosmer, Cespedes, Chris Davis, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmerman... would all fall into the "ohmigod what have we done" category...that's about half of the mega contracts.  If you are confident that Springer isn't Justin Upton...who put up a 5.5 WAR the year before he left and about 4 WAR combined the next four years Or Jason Heyward who put up an average of 5.5  WAR for the four years before the big contract and about 1.5 WAR after the contract.  Big contract free agents are still a crap shoot.  

Cespedes was good before he got hurt, but the rest are fair points, though all were extremely inconsistent and had warning signs - Springer has basically been the same player every year so he's a much safer bet.

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4 hours ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

I don’t know if I can trust Cheesy Beef anymore. He tweets so much every day to the point that he’s probably making up stuff. I feel like he just wants clout and Twitter interactions.

Well of course!

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5 hours ago, almagest said:

Cespedes was good before he got hurt, but the rest are fair points, though all were extremely inconsistent and had warning signs - Springer has basically been the same player every year so he's a much safer bet.

I don't know...they seem like basically the same player.  Here is WAR for the five years before the free agency for each (most recent year first).   Upton and Heyward were both significantly younger and neither of them were told what the next pitch was going to be.  I'm not saying that Springer will be bad...I'm just challenging your assumption that Springer will certainly be good.  Upton and Heyward went on to provide their new teams 1 WAR per year for $20 mill a year.  You could even argue that the Heyward and Quintana moves were what turned the Cubs Dynasty into the Cubs abject failure.   

 

                   Upton

      Heyward     

                   Springer
Age 28 26 31
  4.2 6.9 2.2
  3.1 5.5 6.4
  2.8 3.6 2.7
  2.4 5.5 5
  5.5 2 5.1
Total  46 49.5 52.4

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10 hours ago, maloney.adam said:

 

As soon as money being the problem comes up, you know this isn't going to happen now.

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24 minutes ago, Cashman said:

As soon as money being the problem comes up, you know this isn't going to happen now.

To be fair, this is a tough market for relievers, so it’s very possible no one willing to offer anything close yet to Hendriks’ expectations.

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44 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

To be fair, this is a tough market for relievers, so it’s very possible no one willing to offer anything close yet to Hendriks’ expectations.

Does that really matter?  I mean, its not like he is seeking 10yrs and 300M. I think he is asking for a reasonable contract at $40M.

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4 minutes ago, Cashman said:

Does that really matter?  I mean, its not like he is seeking 10yrs and 300M. I think he is asking for a reasonable contract at $40M.

Does what matter?  3/$30M and 4/$40M is a 33% difference in potential earnings, so if that’s the gap it’s going to take some time to resolve.

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