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I disagreed with you based on the history of available evidence...until you repeated yourself a third time. Now I agree with you. You had me at "Again,"

I was waiting for the season to wind down and work delayed me from starting what will be several posts of where we are, 40 man, and what to do. thxfrthmmrs beat me to some of this so tip of the cap to him. The 2019 WS were bad. In many ways we were worse than out actual record. In other threads some state that many who contributed to our suckiness will be gone but they are only partially correct. In order to go forward, I think we realistically need to see where we are, identify the good and bad in order to develop a plan forward. Hopefully our front office is doing this constantly. I am using baseball reference(BR) and fan graphs(FG) data. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2019&lg=MLB&stat=WAR According to WAR of playoff teams, we are 15-20 WAR from being a contender. You can argue some of these stats may not be the best to use but anyway..... Something good: I was surprised to see that by WAR, we had the sixth best bullpen (BR). Unfortunately we had the worst SO/W . While our GB% was second best, we were league best in lowest hard hit ball percentage. (FG) This was mentioned in a Athletic article that while most of our starters are using the high fastball approach, many of our relievers are going for grounders. Our HR rate was a little better than average so pitching down didn't kill us. Conversely for SIERRA people, we were the worst. My take away is it is not as bad as I thought. Think pitching is bad all over baseball. Could certainly improve but a lot of young options also are on the way. Bad: Our batters should never see a strike, well almost never. We walk at the lowest rate in baseball and strikeout nearly at the highest yielding the worst W/SO ratio in baseball. That includes NL teams who bat pitchers. We swing at a higher rate at balls than any team but the Tigers and we make contact with those pitches less than anyone but the Royals. While some of this is our scrubs, many are significant players. You can tolerate this if a player makes up for it in another area like power leading to a decent OPS or WRC. However we have Leury not walking, slugging .374 while striking out 136 times. Yolmer slugging .322 with 112ks . McCann 135 k 28.8% rate , Abreu 150k . Moncada improved greatly but still 150k and Eloy 132 though both made up for it in other ways and you hope they improve further. In a weird stat, we have the highest batting average on balls in play. Unfortunately this is a stat which often portends regression. Anderson and Moncada are near .400. McCann is way above his norm at .363. If those three regress next year you are probably needing even more added WAR to contend. By WAR, we have the second worst overall outfield. Especially in RF as all are aware by now. Eloy could improve his defense as well as settle in even better at the plate(remember when Hahn said he didn't come up because they wanted him to improve defensively? Sure you do.). Robert should eventually fix centerfield though I think he will get a steady diet of sliders off the plate away and fastballs up out of the zone. He hopefully doesn't bite but he has almost always had a pretty low walk rate. RF I will get to in another post of what to do to fix but currently I don't think this years options will be the answer or return. We have by WAR the worst DH combos in baseball. Again the answer probably comes from the outside although if Abreu is back, which we all expect the team to do, hopefully more time is spent at DH. Despite Jose's 121 RBI and offensive contributions, his glove is still still still -1+ WAR. He needs more time at DH and who knows how much the infield defense/errors improve with a better glove. SP: Giolito huge plus. Hopefully holds steady but not sure you can expect 5+ WAR. Lopez starts. Reinforcements on the way from injury though may not begin the year with the big club. Cease depending on spring training and you probably need a couple more. Previewing, one or two free agents you can pencil in for awhile. One swing and possibly one you sign could be flippable as people get healthy. Nova gets some consideration. More in later posts. So thats kind of the review. We have real issues and a lot of solutions to come from outside. We have earned the draft pick we get. There are so many issues I am thinking .500 maybe before contending seriously unless things break right where players don't regress, others improve, acquisitions perform(that would be a change) and good health(would really be nice). The good news is there are a lot of guys who got there chance during the rebuild and can pretty safely be moved on from but I will get to that more in the 40 man discussion.

Brewers win, Cubs out.

It never started.

CONGRATS TO THE SKINNY KID FROM BAMA TIM ANDERSON! YOU CAN PUT AN AL BATTING TITLE ON THE BOARD, YEASSSSSSSS! THIS RACE IS OVAH!

I like your post. This team is nowhere near contending unfortunately. We'll see how much Robert and Madrigal kickstart the lineup and if Hahn can rebuild a pitching staff. Our staff is so bad this team currently has no chance of sniffing .500 next year at this time. Arguably we could have a worse record next year. You advanced statters ... combining all the war and everything, did this team overachieve a lot this season to get the record it has?

Braun grand slam in the 1st inning

A Cubs loss or Brewers win tonight ends the Cubs' hopes

I do, and if the FO doesn't, then this winter is going to look a lot like last winter.

I'm in the same boat. There's value in these guys' speed even if they aren't stealing.

What you're saying isn't supported by the facts at all. Can you give even one example where it's known the player turned down the biggest offer because that team plays in a shitty weather location, isn't competitive, has bad attendance, etc.? It's pretty much always the opposite -- players pass on their preferred destinations to take more money.

A lot of people assume it's Robert Forester at the end there, which would make sense, but all I can hear in that voice is Michael Douglas.

It's been a tough few years to raise young Sox fans on the North Side. I live walking distance to Wrigley, across the street from one of the more beloved Cubs players, weathered 2016, and have still managed to keep my four kids from straying to the Northsiders during their formative years. It has not come without considerable effort on my part. I recognize it's tough for kids in the schoolyard to fend off "we're in the playoffs, you're in fourth place" with "oh yeah, well...we've got some really good prospects in Winston/Salem, Birmingham, and Charlotte." I've assured my kids that the Sox are on an upward trend, the Cubs (at least since 2017 or so) trending downward, and that there would come a time when those trend lines cross. When one could proclaim with a straight face -- say to an alien moving to Chicago and choosing a new team -- "you're better off picking the Sox right now." I think that moment came on Sunday, September 22, 2019. I now feel comfortable saying that (generational loyalties aside) I'd rather be a Sox fan right now than a Cubs fan, at least for the next several years. Am I too early? Too late? *Apologies in advance to the "too cool to care about the Cubs" crowd.

Chuck: "You know your lead over DJ LeMahieu?" Anderson: "What is it?" Chuck: "11 points." Anderson: "Hooooooooooooooooo. Let's finish it baby."

I'd say a good 10 guys currently on the active roster will be gone or AAA fodder.

Castillo ruining the Sox tank and the Indians playoff hopes at the same time.

shoulder

I'm pretty much watching to see if Timmy can close on this batting title. Counting what they've both done today, I think he's gonna do it. Assume Lemahieu gets 13 more ABs (1x more today and 4x for each of NYY's remaining 3 games) and Tim gets 22x more (2x today and 4x for our remaining 5 games). Lemahieu will need to go 10-for-13 to get his final BA to .338, and Tim would have to go 8-for-22 to sit at .339. If DJ only gets 5 hits, Tim needs just 4. And 4 will keep him above Yelich in the NL as well. Yeah, this, Yoan, and Eloy are pretty much the only Sox things I care about right now.

We all want the best player available at every position. When dealing with budgets someone is usually disappointed. Because there are a shortage of can't miss right field options ...it might be the best place to tread water if the best starters are available if we splurge. I have said repeatedly that I want 2 quality starters, Grandal, a right fielder and 2 or 3 quality relief arms. If we have the money then of course get it all. If RH has to skimp...my preference would be skimp in RF rather than starting pitchers.

Mendick am cry

They have the talent to win 95-100 games on the offense still, and that likely won't change next year. They need a lot of pitching help though. Lester might be done, Hamels is probably a 5th starter at best, Quintana is best as a 3 or 4, Hendricks is fine, and hopefully, Darvish can continue pitching well. That's three dependable starters with only Darvish having ace potential - you could argue Hendricks but I'd need to see 30+ starts and ~200 innings before I'd give that to him. They almost definitely don't have the money for Cole but that's a great fit for them. They also don't have much trade capital to acquire an ace. I assume they'll be active in the mid to lower-tier free-agent pitching market but will that be enough for them?

By the way, I'm not necessarily saying that we'll have a better record next season, or that we won't have our struggles in 2020, especially early on. Just fan experience. I think the next couple seasons will be joyless affairs on the North Side as they continue to watch their core decline and decay, ala the Giants of the last few years. The story on our side of town will be prospect debuts, flashes of brilliance, inconsistent results but a steadily increasing level of play by a team on the rise - that stuff is fun to watch.

There is as close to a 0% chance as humanly possible than the Sox go into 2020 without a RF that is not currently on the roster.

Probably too early. I'm still holding out hope for an all Chicago World Series in the next few years, and I think their core is still solid enough to do so. Pitching has got to be better for the north siders, though.

Yeah because you asked me for evidence that’s impossible to provide. Neither you or I have access to the information of exactly what teams bid on free agents. How about you prove me wrong that the player takes the highest bid every time?With evidence of what every team bid. I’ll wait... But go ahead, live in your fairy tale world if it makes you feel better. I was right that the Sox were never going to sign Harper or Machado and I’ll be right again this off season. AGAIN, whatever helps you sleep at night. Myself? I prefer booze and weed to delusion...works much better

Can we just dispense with this narrative that the Sox are at some kind of intangible disadvantage compared with other teams, and that making the highest offer isn't enough, they have to make a much higher offer because who would want to come to the Sox?!? The reason the Sox haven't signed marquee free agents is because they haven't made the highest offers to those players. Period. The reason that the Sox have signed mid-tier free agents like Melky Cabrera is because they have made the highest offers to those players. If the Yankees offered $250 mil to Cole and the Sox offered $255 mil, I'd bet my right nut that he would sign with the Sox.

He's got a 3.37/3.62 ERA/FIP with a career low walk rate of 1.6 BB/9. I dont really see that as erratic.

The recent comments here make too much sense, which leads me to believe that Ricky will still be managing, they'll be attempting tons of SB's (because "we want to remain aggressive out there") while getting thrown out 32% of the time, and Moncada will be at some weird spot in the lineup (because "I need to break up the righties"). And bunting. Ugh.

We don't need to steal a shitload of bases when the 3-4-5 is a murderer's row. In fact, I'd imagine with a 900 OPS hitter at the plate anything less than a 85% steal success rate is a net loss.

He was also caught stealing 8 times. Makes you wonder how many times he would have scored on those 8 occasions if he hadn't attempted to steal. Probably at least a couple, which have to be taken out from the 11 added. So he attempted 53 stolen bases -- risking injury on 53 separate occasions -- to add fewer than 10 runs to his team's total.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/white-sox/2019/9/24/20882632/white-sox-yoan-moncada-plans-to-build-of-2019-success-i-still-know-that-i-can-do-more

OMG you read my mind. All have the ability to steal 30+ bags.

He doesn't suck, but he did not play well his last two years in Green Bay and his half of season in Washington. He was taking really bad angles on deep passes and was late to come over in coverage. His run defense was really bad, missed tackles, diving at feet and he generally seemed hesitant in his play. He always had a game or two like he did in Washington. His first pick was a perfect example, late on coverage, but the throw was floated right to him, now he made a good catch and run after, but if he was facing an even average QB on that play, the pass is completed for a 15-20 yard gain. I'm not going to get into the who is better, Clinton-Dix or Amos. It's been argued non stop for the past 5 months or whatever. I can say after 3 games, I'm pretty happy with Amos, really sure tackles so far and the middle of the field deep has been a no go for opposing qb's. Personally I really like HaHa, he seemed like a really cool dude when he was with the Packers and does a lot of really good off the field, I think he still has some things going in Green Bay still.

Agreed.

Embarrassing loss. Ripoff for the fans. Sickening Fulmer and Santiago performances. Lot of lousy players in the lineup and on mound for Sox tonight. Roster upgrades needed. Current roster not near a .500 team next year. With Robert and Madrigal? Getting closer. This pitching staff is very very horrid.

The stronger the drum-beat regarding any type of cultural level type changes, the more the native New Yorker owner doubles-down. Renteria ain't going no-where.

This should totally be the plan. Then you can focus on the the rest of the roster all offseason. Clear up that business right away with the pitching going from an obvious weakness to an obvious strength and go from there. Would make bringing in defensive minded RF a possibility as well if run prevention comes back marginally cheaper or easier to acquire than run scoring.

The White Sox are in a great position to win a lot of games in the future. If they wanted to they have the flexibility to overpay, get both Cole and Strasburg, and still be an average team in terms of payroll in MLB. Will they do this? NO. But could they? I think It's possible. The question that remains is if and when they will spend to complete rebuild and how far they are willing to go. I don't mind that the White Sox save a lot of money and rebuild from time to time as long as they spend and invest in high caliber players when their teams are in a good position to win.

TA is by far the biggest feather in this front offices cap. He was a highly risky pick in 2013 and in a 1st round redraft he'd almost certainly be a top 3 pick.

So everyone is supposed to dream small or tell themselves the rebuild will fail because we are doomed to always getting non elite players in Free Agency ? We all know the odds of getting Cole are not good but what Sarava said is spot on.

Just because a lot of guys bust doesn't mean you don't want the opportunity. Odds are you'll find betters players higher than lower. That's why.

Just.Win.Baby.

There absolutely is. The Sox coveted Andrew Benintendi in 2015. They would have drafted Jo Adell in 2017. It's imperative to get as high of a pick as possible.

I'm pretty positive right now, but talk to me in February. If Hahn and KW sit in their offices playing switch all winter again, the optimism will be tempered. A lot. For those that don't know, playing switch starts with one thumb in your mouth and the other up your ass......You get the picture.

Just tank baby! @greg775

Next year we will be gloating and looking down are noses at all these lousy teams.?

HIs late father starting to play for the Sox org in 1986 when Hawk was GM makes sense now.

It's obvious we're trading for Mike Yastrzemski to complete Hawk.

This sounds weird to me. Unless we're 100% all in next season, he's demonstrated clearly that he can hit pitching at Charlotte over the last few months including making adjustments. If we're going to sign Grandal and cast Collins aside we may as well trade him, but unless we do that, sending him back to Charlotte isn't going to teach him much when we know he can hit AAA pitching.