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He is 28th among starters in FIP over the past 3 years and seems almost likely to be dealt this offseason. Those guys don't grow on trees. My beef with the idea is the main reason for the hype is that he only makes 3.75 million this year. Anyone playing pretend GM with a set payroll budget loves to pencil in Musgrove in exchange for 3 prospects that aren't really crucial to the Sox' future. Something like Stiever, Rutherford, Adolfo. I expect the Pirates to get more than this in return. Hopefully the Sox don't give up real value for him in the name of saving money, instead of just paying a free agent and keeping our young players.

I think you are misrepresenting the argument. The argument is Lopez is a failed prospect who in the last three years has a higher peak (game score or WAR) than Musgrove and you don't have to trade an asset for Lopez...let alone multiple. Also the worst pitcher in baseball in 2018 worked with Katz and became a top 10 pitcher in baseball and we wonder if Katz can do the same for the potential of Lopez. I for one think Musgrove is overvalued...if you look at his season last year his last two starts in late September were great...but other than that he had a 6 ERA. In his only good year he had a fantastic April 2019 but after that had a 5.3 ERA...in the no-DH NL. Musgrove is 28 and if you see some kind of star in here I'm not sure what you are looking at. As for overvaluing Stiever...seems like the board is undervaluing him. People are ready to trade him for anything because of a lower than expected velocity in 6 innings in his first major league experience (where Cooper was probably telling him to sacrifice velocity for accuracy). He was their #6 prospect a year ago when Dane Dunning was #5, is 2 years younger than DD, and is a better athlete with better pure stuff than DD and the board lost their minds over trading DD for a top 10 pitcher in baseball. If, as you suggest we trade Stiever and two other top 10 prospects for Musgrove, I fear for our future.

My point is that Teheran, Walker, & Anderson would cost roughly the same salary, have similar or better numbers, and not cost a top 100 prospect or more. Like I said before, Mushgrove was Pitt's 2020 OD starter. They'll overvalue him and be ok to keep him if they don't get what they want. They're in the driver's seat and no reason for the Sox to take that ride when there're plenty of good alternates. What's yours?

Why are there three pages about trading for a guy with a career 4.33 ERA?

Again...last two games in late September he was VERY good...before that he had an ERA of 6. In 2019 he was 1 WAR better than Reylo and in 2018 he was 2 WAR worse. In his best year ever he was 98th in the majors in pitching WAR...worse than Gio Gonzalez...his best year ever was worse than Gio age 33. Honestly Quintana is lefty, has a better track record, better peak and costs you nothing. Why are we even talking about this guy?

Soxtalk game thread when Reynaldo is appearing: ”DFA him!” ”total trash I can’t wait until he’s gone” ”we’ll never compete with Reynaldo being relied on” Soxtalk offseason ”Reynaldo lopez is just as good as Joe Musgrove”

I do not get how people think having Musgrove in the rotation is the same or even worse than López. I also don’t think WAR should be used as a basis for who is a better pitcher, or even who has better statistics. I find it far more useful and accurate for generally quantifying a position player. There’s really not much you need to look at to see how much better Musgrove is currently, but also how much better of a position he is in to progress next season. López could easily be the worst pitcher in the league next year. Also, everyone is overvaluing Stiever. He will not be headlining any package for a player like Musgrove with more than one year of control. If Stiever is at the front of the trade, he will be paired with multiple equally “good” prospects.

I'd hope so. It seems like Michael Reinsdorf will be more open to that than his father. They need to acquire as much talent possible right now, draft well, and sell some superstars on the idea of playing for the Bulls and in Chicago. The Chicago Bulls should definitely be a destination for stars. It is crazy that it hasn't been.

Is this the worst team in the NBA? Carter continues to be impossibly bad.

Or it could be that the website thinks that his 2017-18 is closer to who he actually is and his 2019 was a fluke based on his covid-ravaged 2020 being similar to 2017/18. If you're not a Sox fan that's a rational opinion......but we know better(we hope)

Maybe the website subscribes to the Jack Parkman school of pessimism. Yoan Moncada won't be the same until 2023 - if we even have the MLB back by then.

Lopez's stuff is nothing like it was in 2018. he's pretty much a lost cause. If they could make him a decent pen arm that would be a huge win at this point.

Any 1 of: Julio Teheran (2020 stats after covid. Like Moncada, will he be fully recovered?) Taijuan Walker (nice 2020 bounce back from 2019 TJ surgery). Might be worth taking affordable 3-4 year AAV flyer on him. Quintana Chase Anderson (2020 stats after oblique) Garrett Richards Maybe 2 or 3 year deals for any 1; and/or options. Each has different AAV; with my limited market value research, possibly anywhere from ~ $3.5 for Walker up to ~ $10 for Richards. Does that sound reasonable? Good contract variety depending on Sox plans.

They were not. It’s all smoke and mirrors. I’m laughing at the thought it Reinsdorf spending big money on a player. I’ll believe it when I see it. In the meantime, let’s prepare ourselves for more bargain bin signings. Mitch Moreland will probably be the big lefty bat we sign.

You keep ignoring the fact this deal was agreed to long before Colas was available. The Sox aren't going to burn down their Cuban connections and pipeline just for 1 player. It is shooting yourself in the foot to get a day off of work.

The very 1st article states that the Angels SHOULD have on him. Not going to waste time on the three, because every team SHOULD have interest, but until you literally show me the money of who CAN sign him, this isn't dealing in reality.

It’s just so sad this guy runs his teams like the Marlins. Even the Bulls, he won’t pay the luxury tax. https://www.forbes.com/profile/jerry-reinsdorf/?sh=24c916e76d28

You’re not getting this, no one has $2M to give Colas in this period and it sounds like even $1M from a team would be a stretch. He will likely wait a year to get $2M to $3M rather than take a few hundred thousand now. And the White Sox have probably the best chance of landing him as we seem to not blow our entire load on 16 year olds and like have some uncommitted dollars of materiality unlike most other clubs. Odds are pretty decent we get both Colas & Cespedes.

I will believe they will sign the better players when they actually sign players. We knew they were out on Springer when they signed Eaton. Just business as usual, always trying to get by on the cheap. I wonder if they will tell us like with Machado, their offer was much better, but they can’t afford what he ultimately signed for.

It's how pretty much all of the deals work.

There is no way any competent agent/attorney representing Colas would agree to a handshake deal predicated on future compensation. That is pure folly. Furthermore, such a scheme would be exposed as a thinly veiled attempt to conspire to violate the applicable rules. Also, despite whatever the Sox may want, Colas may want a deal done this this year, not next.

I've heard this story before. Make an offer and wait for another team to get our guy. If this is indeed true, there is no reason that we can't sign Brantley.

I am anxious to see what Katz can do with Lopez. A young arm like Lopez would seem to be the ideal project for a young coach to earn his stripes.

LA Angels Boston Red Sox NY Mets Yankees Not sure how much pool money they have, but there is interest from other teams.

The Grinch

Home Alone.

Lol...yup, let’s renege on a previously agreed upon deal to sign a guy who might be slightly better of a prospect if at all. I’m sure LatAm will guys would love to do business with us after that move.

Hi guys, just wanted to take a minute to wish you a very merry Christmas and a happy year, most of all good health! These days people don't spend much time or thought on some personal words to their friends and family, they just copy and paste some random message and send it on. So after all we've been though together this year I want to thank you for your friendship and wish you a happy and fulfilling 2018 - you’re the best gymnastics group anyone could ask for. Best wishes, Helen

Haven't ever really been a holiday movie person. There are movies that I'm in the mood to watch during the holiday season, though, which don't have anything to do with the holidays. I'll watch the Potter movies if they're on (preferred the books to the movies considerably), for example. The Brosnan Bond movies as well, for some reason. Just watched Christmas Vacation for the first time last year thanks to my Fiancee. I liked it. I've seen the heavy hitters (the one with the tongue frozen to the light pole/bb gun and the one where the main character sees the difference he's made in other people's lives) probably once all the way through, at a very young age, and just haven't ever felt the desire to revisit. They were never a big thing in my household growing up. Also haven't seen Elf or Polar Express all the way through yet. I love Friday After Next.

Pirates failed pitcher is actually an excellent resume recently

Here's to the judges, officials, politicians, and election workers who followed the rule of law, discharged their duties and held our system in place during a difficult and challenging year.

Lol wut? you don’t even know who you’re responding to. You’d think a mod could follow a thread

Nope, I can’t get behind that at all. The 2019 season is equally important to his go-forward expectations as his 2020 season is. And using career stats ignores the natural aging curve and the fact he switched positions where he has been fantastic defensively. I’m starting to think you have an equity stake in the website.

Flash - Yoan Moncada was ranked as the 7th most valuable asset in baseball by Fangraphs in August. While not the end all be all, the reality is Yoan was one of the most valuable assets in baseball prior to 2020 and did not suddenly become a negative value player after a semi-disappointing, COVID impacted season. I tried using him as an example of a flawed projection methodology by BTV and this was your response: I then asked you if you were actually defending a negative surplus value projection for Yoan since you seemed to imply that I was somehow being emotional and/or non objective in calling out BVT. And yes, saying that Moncada has negative surplus value is a laughably bad take and I fully stand by that. Not sure you were even arguing that point or not, but it felt important to call out given your responses to what I deem to be very fair criticism.

3.3 wins per season x 4 years of control = 13.2 projected wins over the life of control. 13.2 x $9.0M cost per win assumption = $118.8M in expected future value. $118.8M - $60.0M in guaranteed contract commitments = $58.8M in surplus value.

Dude, you are taking this way too personally, which is very strange since unless you created the site none of these comments are directed at you. You keep saying they provide a very “comprehensive” description of how they come up with their projections, but here is their blurb on this piece of it for major leaguers: Well gosh damn, it’s now clear as mud how they came up with that negative valuation for Yoan Moncada...lol. Again, you keep acting like coming up with a projected surplus value is simple math exercise and the reality is it’s not because future performance is uncertain. The prior season does NOT automatically predict the future season. I have no idea what BTV is doing to come up with a negative valuation (since they don’t explain their methodology!), but my guess is they are simply anchoring off the prior year. Meanwhile, well known projections systems like Zips & Steamer both project 3.3 win seasons for Yoan next year since they are looking at a broader set of data points and not just 2020 results. With no further growth in performance or with any inflation in the cost per win in free agency (so $9M per win in all years), his surplus value would be ~$60M. I personally would estimate his future production to be higher than what those models project (in this case more like a 4 win player), which would place his surplus value closer to $90M. Regardless, the point here is that some of BTV’s surplus value projections (more than just Yoan) are simply bad, which undermines the tool. By all means keep using it as a reference point, but if you posted any outputs that involved Moncada for example you would be laughed at. This has nothing to do with White Sox fans overvaluing Yoan, but everything to do with BTV’s poor forecast model undervaluing him due to a bad 2020 season.

I’m not sure what I’m missing here, but a player’s surplus value when it comes to trades is based on expected future performance and not on historical performance. There isn’t a magical formula to calculate future performance, which means projections are inherently subjective even if the models used are data driven. The flawed input in this case is the forecast model that thinks a 25 year old, former 70 grade prospect in Yoan Moncada is not going to provide $60M in value over the next four years after coming off what would have been a 4 fWAR season despite being negatively impacted by COVID-19. If their model is ignoring player context, then the tool is basically worthless.

The "Cuban Ohtani" nickname makes me cringe every time I see it.

Karl Marx wrote that one of the features of capitalism is eventually the worker's only value will be what work they can perform for the capitalists. All art, music, theater, literature will die as value is only placed on commodities that can be sold for a profit. We've gotten there. Go borrow money so you can develop skills that someone will charge their customers for and give you a portion of their profits. Forget about anything other than making yourself more valuable for capitalists. Anything you personally may benefit from is secondary to your value to your owner. Seems like if the business owners are benefiting the most from your education they should also pay for it. Any while they are at it, educate folks in the arts and literature. Aren't those the things that differentiate us from the squirrels and ravens who simply work for their living and do not create?