Tommy Kahnle

[maxjusttyped]

The Tyler Thornburg deal is the most recent somewhat comparable trade of a reliever like Kahnle. I'm sure the Red Sox wish the had that trade back as Shaw has been outstanding.

The lesson as always should be if you're a non contender sell high on premium relievers. The Thornburg return is a nice place to start Kahnle discussions, but that underrates his value because A) Kahnle has pitched better than Thornburg did last season and B) teams are willing to pay a premium for relievers in July because their value is enhanced so significantly in the playoffs.

 

If the Sox are able to deal Kahnle for a package centered around a top 50/multiple back half of the top 100 type prospects it would be a mistake not to do so. I think what we've seen from Kahnle this season is legitimate and I'd be targeting him if I were a contender, but looking at reliever attrition rates it's probably less than 50/50 he'd have a role to play on the next good White Sox team.

[steveno89]

The lesson as always should be if you're a non contender sell high on premium relievers. The Thornburg return is a nice place to start Kahnle discussions, but that underrates his value because A) Kahnle has pitched better than Thornburg did last season and B) teams are willing to pay a premium for relievers in July because their value is enhanced so significantly in the playoffs.

 

If the Sox are able to deal Kahnle for a package centered around a top 50/multiple back half of the top 100 type prospects it would be a mistake not to do so. I think what we've seen from Kahnle this season is legitimate and I'd be targeting him if I were a contender, but looking at reliever attrition rates it's probably less than 50/50 he'd have a role to play on the next good White Sox team.

 

You are totally correct in your thinking, but I just cannot imagine teams offering what we would ask in exchange for Kahnle.

[Chicago White Sox]

The lesson as always should be if you're a non contender sell high on premium relievers. The Thornburg return is a nice place to start Kahnle discussions, but that underrates his value because A) Kahnle has pitched better than Thornburg did last season and B) teams are willing to pay a premium for relievers in July because their value is enhanced so significantly in the playoffs.

 

If the Sox are able to deal Kahnle for a package centered around a top 50/multiple back half of the top 100 type prospects it would be a mistake not to do so. I think what we've seen from Kahnle this season is legitimate and I'd be targeting him if I were a contender, but looking at reliever attrition rates it's probably less than 50/50 he'd have a role to play on the next good White Sox team.

This is a great post. Most teams will want a longer track record before paying a high price for Kahnle, but there's always a chance that one front office out there believes in him and thinks one top 50 prospect and change is a steal for 3 1/2 years of an elite reliever.

[BlackSox13]

Kahnle's cheap salary and years of control should interest the Yanks quite a bit. Especially with Betances struggling they need the help.

 

Would love to see a bidding war come down to the Yanks and Nat's for White Sox relievers.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

This is a great post. Most teams will want a longer track record before paying a high price for Kahnle, but there's always a chance that one front office out there believes in him and thinks one top 50 prospect and change is a steal for 3 1/2 years of an elite reliever.

Yep relievers are a hot hot hot commodity for the stretch run. Do not underestimate the importance teams in contention put on them. Kahnle is worth his weight in gold right now.

[beautox]

I think Kahnle's value will be static regardless if he moved now or in the off-season. If he is moved now he gets the added bonus of putting up elite peripherals and relievers bringing back hauls at the deadline; if he gets moved in the off-season he has likely picked up the closers role and shown this year isn't a fluke but due to mechanical changes.

 

Having said that Ken Giles in the off-season with two years of proven sucesss brought back the #43 prospect in Appel, #69 in Velasquez, Oberholtzer a spot starter / reliever, a lotto ticket relief arm in Harold Arauz, Thomas Eshelman a 5th starter prospect and SS/2B Jonathan Arau.

 

Kahnle is on pace for 2.5WAR season and is in the top 15 of relievers in all of baseball.

 

provided he finishes the year strong I would be looking for a similar package now and in the off-season something like Verdugo #50 + Calhoun #69 or Buehler #79 & Ruiz from the dodgers.

[steveno89]

I think Kahnle's value will be static regardless if he moved now or in the off-season. If he is moved now he gets the added bonus of putting up elite peripherals and relievers bringing back hauls at the deadline; if he gets moved in the off-season he has likely picked up the closers role and shown this year isn't a fluke but due to mechanical changes.

 

Having said that Ken Giles in the off-season with two years of proven sucesss brought back the #43 prospect in Appel, #69 in Velasquez, Oberholtzer a spot starter / reliever, a lotto ticket relief arm in Harold Arauz, Thomas Eshelman a 5th starter prospect and SS/2B Jonathan Arau.

 

Kahnle is on pace for 2.5WAR season and is in the top 15 of relievers in all of baseball.

 

provided he finishes the year strong I would be looking for a similar package now and in the off-season something like Verdugo #50 + Calhoun #69 or Buehler #79 & Ruiz from the dodgers.

 

Far too early to call Kahnle the next Giles. Giles was 24 years old when traded and already established. Teams will be skeptical due to the lack of track record, although the small sample size peripheral stats do support that Kahnle is coming around strongly.

 

I'd dangle him, but expecting (2) top 100 prospects + more is a pipedream

[GreenSox]

If Kahnle starts closing games once Robertson is moved, and if successful, then he would look a lot like Thornburg in basic stats. Similar age, too.

Probably better held than traded at this point.

[steveno89]

If Kahnle starts closing games once Robertson is moved, and if successful, then he would look a lot like Thornburg in basic stats. Similar age, too.

Probably better held than traded at this point.

 

I'd lean towards holding on to Kahnle, as I doubt the right return would be on the table for him at this point. If he continues to pitch this well he could be a very valuable asset at the deadline next season.

[GreenSox]

I'd lean towards holding on to Kahnle, as I doubt the right return would be on the table for him at this point. If he continues to pitch this well he could be a very valuable asset at the deadline next season.

Agree

[striker]

If Kahnle starts closing games once Robertson is moved, and if successful, then he would look a lot like Thornburg in basic stats. Similar age, too.

Probably better held than traded at this point.

If he starts closing, he get's more expensive as well, which would impact his trade value.

[southsider2k5]

Far too early to call Kahnle the next Giles. Giles was 24 years old when traded and already established. Teams will be skeptical due to the lack of track record, although the small sample size peripheral stats do support that Kahnle is coming around strongly.

 

I'd dangle him, but expecting (2) top 100 prospects + more is a pipedream

 

Yeah that is the hard part. Giles had put up incredible numbers for two full seasons when he was dealt. Kahnle has put up half a season's worth. Thonrburg even had a better history than Kahnle did, as at least he put up some OK numbers before his breakout season.

[ChiSox59]

If he starts closing, he get's more expensive as well, which would impact his trade value.

 

I think the increased value from middle reliever to closer far outweighs the decrease in value is higher arb figures.

[ChiSox59]

This is an interesting point. However, I am not sure it's one way or the other. I don't mean to imply you were speaking in absolute but with relievers and how they can blow up any given day I'd imagine it's closer to 50-50 than 80-20 in either direction.

 

Sure. Just moreso saying that all else being equal, when a middle reliever successfully (far from a given) takes over a closer role, his value is going to increase from what it was a as a middle reliever, even if his salary increases because of it.

 

Basically, if Kahnle takes over closer duties once Robo is moved, and continues to perform well, I think his value will be higher in December than it is right now. Then again, he could tank, and his value could drop. Such is the case with relief pitchers. But generally speaking, inserting a player into the closing role and then flipping him is not a bad strategy. It is what I wanted to happen with Jones this year, but obviously that wasn't in the cards.

[GreenSox]

If he starts closing, he get's more expensive as well, which would impact his trade value.

That's certainly true; Andrew Miller had good trade value ( and a low arb salary) with Boston without closing.

Speaking of 27 year olds - Miller's another one who wasn't productive until around 27.

[Bob Sacamano]

100%.

 

If Kahnle can go 13/15 in saves in August in September and finish with FIP and K numbers anywhere near where they are now he's a serious asset going into the offseason.

 

Rabbit,

 

Now that the "Trade Winds" forum is open, you have tidbits for us? haha

[striker]

I'm dreaming but Kyle Lewis from Seattle or Carson Kelly from STL would be a nice get.

[striker]

I'm dreaming but Kyle Lewis from Seattle or Carson Kelly from STL would be a nice get.

Kahnle + Garcia to the Cardinals

[greg775]

Kahnle + Garcia to the Cardinals

Isn't Garcia projected to be part of the rebuild? He's gonna be 28-29 when we are good again. Is Abreu gonna be the only piece we keep along with Anderson? If we are WS winners with an ENTIRELY rebuilt lineup and entirely new starting rotation and relief corps that will be wild.

[greg775]

The "issue" with Garcia is if he were to keep these numbers up, when the Sox are "projected" to be ready to go, he will be 28-29 and very expensive to extend.

 

With that said, I wouldn't be so quick on the "trade Avi" front. The Sox have invested a ton of time into him, and they still don't really know what they have in him. Because of that, I'd argue he has more value to the Sox than 29 other teams.

Is the plan to only win 2-4 WS titles with young guys? Hope they are SO talented we just blow away the opposition? It seems to me teams that win WS often have a few veterans to splice in with the young studs. Royals had Zobrist and Wade Davis and some other older guys. Didn't the Giants have a few oldies like Uribe? The Cubs had Zobrist too as well as some veteran pitchers.

If the Sox are unwilling to pay big bucks to anybody (like the Royals) they are going to have to copy the Royals financial strategy when they won their one title. That's all they are getting out of their run, though they did get in two WS. So the Sox already signed Anderson for a few years just as the Royals signed a handful of guys a few years back like Perez for a while.

 

My question is ... are the Sox going to win 2-4 WS with only young players who will be winning the WS before they reach free agency? Will the Sox revolutionize baseball by winning WS titles with one of the lowest payrolls in history? Or will they have to suck it up and actually pay the piper on some guys like a good closer, a good setup man, a veteran starter to go with all the young ones, and a Zobrist type guy to go with the younguns. Will Abreu or Avi be around?

 

It seems to me everybody is suggesting we will win multiple WS with these young superstars and will be able to do it on the cheap. Every time somebody mentions $$ even for a guy like Avi or Rodon, people say no way we'll be able to sign 'em or want to sign 'em.

The Cubs spent some $$$ to go with their youth. The Royals didn't.

[witesoxfan]

Is the plan to only win 2-4 WS titles with young guys? Hope they are SO talented we just blow away the opposition? It seems to me teams that win WS often have a few veterans to splice in with the young studs. Royals had Zobrist and Wade Davis and some other older guys. Didn't the Giants have a few oldies like Uribe? The Cubs had Zobrist too as well as some veteran pitchers.

If the Sox are unwilling to pay big bucks to anybody (like the Royals) they are going to have to copy the Royals financial strategy when they won their one title. That's all they are getting out of their run, though they did get in two WS. So the Sox already signed Anderson for a few years just as the Royals signed a handful of guys a few years back like Perez for a while.

 

My question is ... are the Sox going to win 2-4 WS with only young players who will be winning the WS before they reach free agency? Will the Sox revolutionize baseball by winning WS titles with one of the lowest payrolls in history? Or will they have to suck it up and actually pay the piper on some guys like a good closer, a good setup man, a veteran starter to go with all the young ones, and a Zobrist type guy to go with the younguns. Will Abreu or Avi be around?

 

It seems to me everybody is suggesting we will win multiple WS with these young superstars and will be able to do it on the cheap. Every time somebody mentions $$ even for a guy like Avi or Rodon, people say no way we'll be able to sign 'em or want to sign 'em.

The Cubs spent some $$$ to go with their youth. The Royals didn't.

 

The plan is to win ONE World Series with these guys while being competitive for an extended period of time and building goodwill with the fan base. If you win more than one World Series, then it's gravy.

[Dick Allen]

Before trading Kahnle, I would have to study how many guys went from not being able to throw a strike to being able to pound the glove, and how often that is just temporary. I said it in the game thread, right now he is the right handed Matt Thornton.

 

With his stuff, he isn't going to be hit hard if he has any semblance of control.

Edited July 17, 2017 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

Trading Kanhle now is dumb because he has more upside as a closer in 2018.

Worst case scenario, he fails and still is an effective 7th inning guy with dominant stuff.

 

Who else could be the closer next year? With Burdi down, there's no candidate (other than Fulmer or possibly Lopez) for 2018. Resign Swarzak to close? Beck? Danish? Guerrero and Adams are still perceived to be starters.

 

We've already lost any potential Petricka, Putnam and Jones returns. As well as Jennings, for anything more than a flier.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

With more teams open to selling (including Baltimore) and the fact we don't have another great closing candidate, I'm leaning against moving Kahnle unless a team makes an overwhelming offer. Focus on moving Robertson & Swarzak now, then let Kahnle build up as value as closer through the end of the year and see what he's worth in the offseason. A key part of a rebuild is leveraging the closer spot and turning semi-valuable relievers into much desired commodities. Right now, Kahnle is the only guy for that spot.

[oldsox]

With more teams open to selling (including Baltimore) and the fact we don't have another great closing candidate, I'm leaning against moving Kahnle unless a team makes an overwhelming offer. Focus on moving Robertson & Swarzak now, then let Kahnle build up as value as closer through the end of the year and see what he's worth in the offseason. A key part of a rebuild is leveraging the closer spot and turning semi-valuable relievers into much desired commodities. Right now, Kahnle is the only guy for that spot.

I keep wondering if Swarzak can be re-signed now for 2018. No doubt, he is looking forward to free agency, but still, why not try to keep him if we are not going to get a long time difference maker for him.