Bob Sacamano Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Sports Guy said: Would Getz trade Cease for Stowers, Urias and Tyler Wells? I would hope not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The #1 mistake is trusting @Chicago White Sox. He made rage quitting to Nashville cool before Jerry. (CWS is also a great dude) 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I think it's @Chicago White Sox job now to escort him home safely. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, WestEddy said: You're obstinately ignoring what's actually being said in the press. Getz asked high, then said they would wait until the major free agents came off the board. Of course nobody's met that price, yet (that we have a pretty good idea what the pie in the sky price was from the Reds' leak). Now that the market is down to pretty much Snell and Monty, talks are heating up again, and we're starting to get rumors again. That's not really an answer to the good doctor's question of how you seem to know what teams are offering and how high they'll go. You keep accusing people of misrepresenting what you've said, but you've said so much in the last week, I couldn't really tell you what you actually are saying. You're arguing with everybody on everything, even stuff I seem to remember you previously conceding. I’m not ignoring anything. The question was asked how do I know… I have ever once said what I think Cease is worth. I have just said what I don’t think he’s worth and that’s an elite, upper echelon top 20ish guy. My point is and only has been that if Getz was getting that type of deal, the deal would have already happened. I have said all offseason that the only team I saw doing this was Boston. I told @Chicago White Soxthat on our board. Mayer was the guy I was thinking. I think they are the one desperate team I could see doing it. But if they don’t, I don’t think it happens and again, I think it already would have if teams were going to do it. Do I think they get a top 50ish guy? Yea. Do I think they get another borderline top 100 guy? Yes. In fact, my offer is 1 top 35ish guy and a top 75 guy. So I do think he is worth that. But I also think that’s less than you guys think he’s worth and I think it’s less than what Getz is asking, especially if you look at the Reds trade that was reported. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnetennba Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, WestEddy said: You're obstinately ignoring what's actually being said in the press. Getz asked high, then said they would wait until the major free agents came off the board. Of course nobody's met that price, yet (that we have a pretty good idea what the pie in the sky price was from the Reds' leak). Now that the market is down to pretty much Snell and Monty, talks are heating up again, and we're starting to get rumors again. That's not really an answer to the good doctor's question of how you seem to know what teams are offering and how high they'll go. You keep accusing people of misrepresenting what you've said, but you've said so much in the last week, I couldn't really tell you what you actually are saying. You're arguing with everybody on everything, even stuff I seem to remember you previously conceding. No one has met the asking price yet, but here we are with reports of multiple teams in hot pursuit this very day. Choosing to ignore facts to double down on one's uninformed opinion while telling everyone else they are wrong is a bad look. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalChiSox Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 @Quin was right, IMO. If Dylan Cease led the league in swords and if Coby Mayo is somehow more valuable, shouldn't the latter have at least led the minors in shields? Riddle us that, Oriole fans... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Demon Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 15 minutes ago, Baron said: Shirley, you cannot be serious. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: Would Getz trade Cease for Stowers, Urias and Tyler Wells? No because that’s like trading $60 for $10. Trading Cease for Mayo would be like trading $60 for $40, so would still need more to be even. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Baron said: I think it's @Chicago White Sox job now to escort him home safely. Agreed. Also, go check his Orioles message board and see if there are any Sox fans acting like a child over there. Nope. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnetennba Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Snowy Demon said: Shirley, you cannot be serious. I am serious. And stop calling me Shirley. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnetennba Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Nobody wants Baltimore's veteran castoffs. If they actually had value, they would have been traded for pitching already. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, almagest said: I mean this is the whole point of what people here are trying to tell you. You're not headlining a deal for Cease with your third or lower tier of prospects (Assuming Holliday is tier 1 and Mayo is in tier 2 in this case). There needs to be a top tier talent in the package or it's not worth it for the Sox, because they can get that package or better elsewhere. We know how easy it is for these guys to bust out, and we know how important it is to load your team up with proven talent to be able to compete. You know Cease has a mid-rotation floor, and a top 5 Cy Young finisher ceiling. Every single one of your prospects can bust, or end up being just okay - we just lived through this. You also know that (in theory) the O's have a deep system with good player development, so you can absorb losing someone that hurts because you've got a pipeline to replace them, which the White Sox never had. If you trade Mayo (assuming he's as good as you think he is, which doesn't seem to be the consensus here) or someone in his tier, you'll still have an offense full of mashers and you'll drastically upgrade your pitching staff for a postseason run for two years, and put way less reliance on everything going exactly the way you need it to with young pitching. If you hang onto him, then the White Sox probably go elsewhere to make a trade, or they just hang onto him and see what happens at the deadline. It's not like it affects our draft position, because we're picking no better than 10th no matter what we do. Yeah it probably lessens the available talent available for Cease, but if the Sox aren't getting what they want and need now it doesn't really matter that much, because there's zero guarantee any of these guys are successful, and we might just be better off taking a high end talent and a flyer at the deadline or in the winter of 2024. And if you come back with "fine we won't get him the price is too high", then I hope you don't seriously regret it, like White Sox fans regret not signing Harper or Machado. And this is where you guys and other fan bases have it wrong. A consistent theme we have seen is people saying, well just trade Mayo or Basallo because “you have other guys”. It’s like the people who say billionaires should pay a higher percentage of their money for taxes because “they can afford it”. Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should. And the other part to this is that Cease just isn’t good enough for that level of player. He can be but in 4 of his 5 years or, if you want, 2 of the last 3, he hasn’t been worth it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: You think he’d get less than Montgomery? I think 7/$175M+ is far more likely. He had a 97 ERA+ last year and has done nothing in the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Cease had a very, very good 2021 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: No because that’s like trading $60 for $10. Trading Cease for Mayo would be like trading $60 for $40, so would still need more to be even. But how do you know Getz wouldn’t do that? You can’t say that for sure!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Sports Guy said: He had a 97 ERA+ last year and has done nothing in the playoffs. He also just turned 28 and is incredibly durable. He would have been paid like an ace this offseason. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopek Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: Yea I believe that..but Elias won’t do it. It’s just not how he operates. He will go sign Ryu or someone like that for a year before he gives up more value than he feels he should for Cease or anyone else. Pro Tip: Start reading Sports Guy's posts as if he actually is Elias and is just talking in third person. It at least makes the thread more entertaining. 5 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, fathom said: He also just turned 28 and is incredibly durable. He would have been paid like an ace this offseason. I doubt it. He’s not getting paid 35+M a year. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: Would Getz trade Cease for Stowers, Urias and Tyler Wells? Don't need/want the spare parts. Go stand in the corner with Cardinals' fans for that one. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FT35 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: And this is where you guys and other fan bases have it wrong. A consistent theme we have seen is people saying, well just trade Mayo or Basallo because “you have other guys”. It’s like the people who say billionaires should pay a higher percentage of their money for taxes because “they can afford it”. Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should. And the other part to this is that Cease just isn’t good enough for that level of player. He can be but in 4 of his 5 years or, if you want, 2 of the last 3, he hasn’t been worth it. If you “shouldn’t” trade them, how else would you handle great MILB prospects that are blocked at the MLB level for at least the next half-decade? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almagest Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Sports Guy said: And this is where you guys and other fan bases have it wrong. A consistent theme we have seen is people saying, well just trade Mayo or Basallo because “you have other guys”. It’s like the people who say billionaires should pay a higher percentage of their money for taxes because “they can afford it”. Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should. And the other part to this is that Cease just isn’t good enough for that level of player. He can be but in 4 of his 5 years or, if you want, 2 of the last 3, he hasn’t been worth it. First, I don't think billionaires should pay any more taxes than they already do. Second, this is a bad analogy, because taxable wealth is REAL. Those dollars exist, right now. Prospect future value is THEORETICAL. You could trade Jackson Holliday and he could turn out to be a giant bust or just be decent, and don't say it won't happen because we have a team FULL of these guys. We're also not saying you're trading for peak Chris Sale here, but we're DEFINITELY saying the price is going to be higher than you seem to want to pay, especially when you're saying 4 of your top 5 prospects on mlb.com are off limits, and the main one you're hanging onto has 1B concerns in his scouting report. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: I doubt it. He’s not getting paid 35+M a year. 175/7 = 35? 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, caulfield12 said: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2021&season=2023 Okay Mr. Sports Guy. There’s your list. Have at it. Corbin Burnes only gives you one year of control, a relatively massive prospect cost and $25 million price tag. Alcantara…Marlins won’t trade him or Eury Perez but will potentially move Luzardo, massive injury concerns, coming off a down year Luis Castillo…good luck. Framber Valdez…good luck. Woodruff might be the type of deal almost any team in baseball would make for at least two full years of control…knowing it might completely blow up in your face. White Sox might as well sign him if nobody else will. Pay Montgomery/Snell $150-200 million. Haha. They’re far behind Dylan Cease, btw. Kershaw and Urias, ha and ha. Bieber, well-documented…clearly on downside. More expensive. Peralta…see Burnes, depends what direction ownership goes with rebuild in MIL. Especially if Cubs don’t do much more than keep Bellinger. Musgrove or Darvish…Padres would have to give up at ASB and those are big big big contracts for pitchers that have already peaked in all likelihood. That’s why Dylan Cease is worth a s%*# ton to roughly 15-18 teams in baseball, if you think coldly and rationally about this list. Orioles with quite limited options financially. (Even if FG just posted an article about Gunnar Henderson and Witt Jr. being on Hall of Fame SS tracks...Balt still needs pitching and Kimbrel is already knocking you back 5 games in the standings, lol.) PS: Also a bit ironic looking at Rodon still holding at #10 after that awful 2023…shows just how good his 2021-22 seasons actually were. Fangraphs sucks …. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: My point is and only has been that if Getz was getting that type of deal, the deal would have already happened. That's not true. I think Getz purposefully asked for a pie in the sky package from the Reds to stop talks. Sure, if a team gave the White Sox their entire minor league system that had 3 top 10s in the game in it, sure Getz would have made that deal. But you're not making some constructive point to say something won't happen because it hasn't happened yet, when the seller purposefully kept that something from even getting underway. Getz probably solicited offers, gave ridiculous counters, then regrouped to figure out how they would proceed when they got to the part that seems to be starting. The bidding. It's a market. And Cease will be traded for market value. Either now, or July. That's great that you don't want your team to trade certain guys for Cease. It's not accurate to say because he's not worth that. If those guys or better are traded for Cease, then he will, indeed, be worth that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 I think this needs to be said and said very explicitly. Cease wasn’t great in 2023 while he was elite in 2022. We all know this. In a normal market, he’d probably be worth somewhere right in the middle (think #2 starter value). However, this is not a normal market. The demand for high-end SP is out-of-fucking-control and the supply just isn’t there. Teams are desperate and that’s resulting in a massive premium for the few quality arms available in free agency and trade. My guess is that most GMs see Dylan Cease as an extremely durable SP with elite stuff who can likely be fixed with minimal coaching & adjustments. Again, in a normal market you’d ideally pay the price of a #2 starter (which assumes some projection) and hope you end up with ace production given there are no guarantees. Unfortunately in this market, teams will likely have to include a substantial amount of the expected improvement into the purchase price. I’m not suggesting you will get Cy Young type value in return, but it’s clear by now teams won’t be able to use 2023 to get Cease on a discount. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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