Cease To Padres per Passan

[WestEddy]

20 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

If we get to the deadline and Cease is having a reasonably good season, it doesn't really matter what BAL wants to offer, pitching will be in extreme demand regardless.

Unless it isn't. Or another team like the Mets bails and floods the market with 2 guys like Verlander and Scherzer. If the Mets were 6-7 games better, Cease possibly gets traded to Texas or Houston.

[ChiSox59]

If you're holding Cease until the tDL, please for the love of god spend some of JR's money and sign an MLB RF and serviceable and flappable SP.  In this division, you just never know. 

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Pale Sox said:

There’s added pressure to Getz here, being the new guy amongst GM’s. If he relents and accepts less than what he made clear he would be willing to accept, it sets a precedent/reputation - fair or not - that he can be waited out in negotiations. 

But he's in a protracted 3-5 year rebuild...without the ability to quickly spend his way back out.

A premature Matt LaPorta/LaFatta- like return that kills off 1/2 the remaining trade capital hurts him more than anything else...he's got to establish a reputation here for looking at the long-term over possibly "winning the off season."  And that ship has already sailed at this point. KC won...and outspent and entire AL Central in the process.

Even Hahn pulled this off once successfully with Jose Quintana.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

If you're holding Cease until the tDL, please for the love of god spend some of JR's money and sign an MLB RF and serviceable and flappable SP.  In this division, you just never know. 

Flappable, flippable, fap-worthy or unflappable?

[Harold's Leg Lift]

40 minutes ago, Pale Sox said:

There’s added pressure to Getz here, being the new guy amongst GM’s. If he relents and accepts less than what he made clear he would be willing to accept, it sets a precedent/reputation - fair or not - that he can be waited out in negotiations. 

Correct

[Bob Sacamano]

1 hour ago, HOFHurt35 said:

How is Rodon a question mark?   Sox nation was calling for the end of days when Jerry allowed him to walk away. 

 

It wasn’t that they “let him walk away.” It was not even tossing out a QO for most.

[Downtown Brown]

16 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Correct

and if he holds cease and he gets hurt (he has already had TJ once fyi) the rebuild is set back tremendously 

[Balta1701]

58 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Unless it isn't. Or another team like the Mets bails and floods the market with 2 guys like Verlander and Scherzer. If the Mets were 6-7 games better, Cease possibly gets traded to Texas or Houston.

Did the Mets "flooding" the market last year lead to weak offers for TDL pitchers? I sure don't think so. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

So many of the Orioles prospects “in play” are 24-25 years old.  I’d much rather the Sox go for high ceiling guys like Arias (NYY) than these older prospects.  I understand the injuries and COVID year restrictions as well (since I’m sure the hangout will argue that).

I seriously doubt the Sox will go with a bunch of lower level prospects.  The headliner will likely be someone who can help by 2025 and I’n guessing they will value proximity to the majors more than other clubs do.  For better or worse, the O’s have that in spades.  But your point holds true obviously.

Edited January 17 by Chicago White Sox

[SoCalChiSox]

3 hours ago, Pale Sox said:

There’s added pressure to Getz here, being the new guy amongst GM’s. If he relents and accepts less than what he made clear he would be willing to accept, it sets a precedent/reputation - fair or not - that he can be waited out in negotiations. 

This is a very good point.

Given that the Glasnow trade was very favorable to TB and that any kind of semi-quality FA pitching has been priced fairly high in the FA market, I find it hard to believe that somehow the market price for Cease on two cheap years is only 1 Top 100 plus table scraps.

That's bullshit and it flies in the face of everything we have seen to date. If these are in fact the kinds of "offers" we've gotten to date, then it suggests that the fact that Getz being the new guy on the block is actually distorting the market because everyone else is saying "let's test this guy and put his feet to the fire and see if he caves if we wait him out to ST" rather than paying whatever they normally would otherwise based on their projection systems for a normal GM who doesn't need to prove himself. 

If people are playing games to test him, he needs to hold onto Cease until the gamesmanship ends. I dont care if it's the start of the season itself or the deadline. 

GMs need to make an offer commensurate with reality or get lost. 

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

20 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

This is a very good point.

Given that the Glasnow trade was very favorable to TB and that any kind of semi-quality FA pitching has been priced fairly high in the FA market, I find it hard to believe that somehow the market price for Cease on two cheap years is only 1 Top 100 plus table scraps.

That's bullshit and it flies in the face of everything we have seen to date. If these are in fact the kinds of "offers" we've gotten to date, then it suggests that the fact that Getz being the new guy on the block is actually distorting the market because everyone else is saying "let's test this guy and put his feet to the fire and see if he caves if we wait him out to ST" rather than paying whatever they normally would otherwise based on their projection systems for a normal GM who doesn't need to prove himself. 

If people are playing games to test him, he needs to hold onto Cease until the gamesmanship ends. I dont care if it's the start of the season itself or the deadline. 

GMs need to make an offer commensurate with reality or get lost. 

 

Or they can just keep waiting until the value matches the offers while the White Sox inherit all of the risk 

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Or they can just keep waiting until the value matches the offers while the White Sox inherit all of the risk 

If the offers for Cease have been as weak as I expected, the risk isn’t that great as a weak return doesnt move the needle that much.

”Oh no Cease got hurt, now we will never get Ortiz” - not exactly a franchise changing miss.

[SoCalChiSox]

4 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Or they can just keep waiting until the value matches the offers while the White Sox inherit all of the risk 

The offers do not match the value. Cease is worth a minimum of 40m in SV and as @Chicago White Sox has previously noted, it's prolly more like 60m.

The Dodgers offering Busch only and none of the Top 100 SPs to supplement it (per Harold) is not a realistic offer that matches value. 

The Yankees refusing to offer ANY of Dominguez, Jones or Hampton (much less two of them) is not an offer that matches the value. 

Westburg plus crap also isn't a "value match" either.

We are NOT the only ones assuming risk. There's also risk on their end too. These guys could have gotten a pretty good No. 2 pitcher for multiple years on the cheap if they had only come to the table with a reasonable offer. 

Instead, Elias et al. are risking getting seriously hosed at the deadline or getting killed in the playoffs AGAIN (or in Cashmans case getting fired) merely because they wanted to flex in Getz face.

There's risk all around here not just with us.

 

 

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Or they can just keep waiting until the value matches the offers while the White Sox inherit all of the risk 

Or still have a fairly pedestrian performance compared to past results, yet still bring in Cease and Jimenez when GM flinches.

If this was the NFL, there would be 2-3x more pressure to make a move at this point in the off season.

So many teams are in need of quality AND affordability without onerous long-term financial commitments...especially with all the swirling RSN revenue generation questions still up in the air for small and mid market teams.

[SoCalChiSox]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

If the offers for Cease have been as weak as I expected, the risk isn’t that great as a weak return doesnt move the needle that much.

”Oh no Cease got hurt, now we will never get Ortiz” - not exactly a franchise changing miss.

While we disagree on Cease's fundamental value you make a GREAT point here. 

If all we are getting is one "meh" Top 100 or equivalent plus a pile of crap there's not that much risk in saying no.

I have ZERO appetite for a package headlined by a Joey Ortiz, or Jordan Westburg or Will Warren.

Zero.

 

 

[Fielder Jones]

12 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Then goodbye Vaughn or Eloy.

 

What's more likely is they just dont choose that prospect of the ones offered. If they were really in love with a bat-only  prospect though... then they would take him without a concern for 2024 (which is probably Eloy's last year with the Sox). Prospects should be acquired based on quality instead of fit. Because you will invariably trade some or change what they have to fit around (over time)

[caulfield12]

37 minutes ago, Fielder Jones said:

What's more likely is they just dont choose that prospect of the ones offered. If they were really in love with a bat-only  prospect though... then they would take him without a concern for 2024 (which is probably Eloy's last year with the Sox). Prospects should be acquired based on quality instead of fit. Because you will invariably trade some or change what they have to fit around (over time)

$13 million remaining for this season and then $6 million total to buy out 2025/26.

If they could recoup at least $8-10 million, it would constitute a minor miracle.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, SoCalChiSox said:

The offers do not match the value. Cease is worth a minimum of 40m in SV and as @Chicago White Sox has previously noted, it's prolly more like 60m.

The Dodgers offering Busch only and none of the Top 100 SPs to supplement it (per Harold) is not a realistic offer that matches value. 

The Yankees refusing to offer ANY of Dominguez, Jones or Hampton (much less two of them) is not an offer that matches the value. 

Westburg plus crap also isn't a "value match" either.

We are NOT the only ones assuming risk. There's also risk on their end too. These guys could have gotten a pretty good No. 2 pitcher for multiple years on the cheap if they had only come to the table with a reasonable offer. 

Instead, Elias et al. are risking getting seriously hosed at the deadline or getting killed in the playoffs AGAIN (or in Cashmans case getting fired) merely because they wanted to flex in Getz face.

There's risk all around here not just with us.

 

 

Let’s just say Cease is worth $60M in projected surplus value.  What do we think someone like Westburg is worth?  Let’s just keep this simple and say it’s a 10% chance he’s a 4 win player, a 30% chance he’s a 2.5 win player, a 30% chance he’s a 1 win player, and a 30% chance he’s a complete bust.  You’re looking at a mean projection of 1.45 wins per year.  At a cost of $6M per win (discounted for several reasons), you’re looking at ~$34M in expected surplus value.  Let’s just assume for ease that Beavers & McDermott are worth ~$15M each given they have much higher bust rates and lower ceilings than Westburg.  You’re looking at over $60M in expected surplus value from that package.

It’s not a sexy return by any means and lacks star potential (short of that best case outcome for Westburg), but if your scouts believe in these guys and feel the bust rates are low, there is plenty of value to be extracted from this type of package.  But for a club that has limited opportunities to acquire impact talent due to being a major market team who is afraid to sign stars in free agency, you have to think long & hard about the risk vs. reward of holding Cease until the deadline.  It obviously worked with Quintana, but Hahn had already spun off Sale & Eaton for five top 100 prospects plus multiple very high end guys.  If Getz fucks this up, it will likely set the franchise back multiple years.

I just wish we knew the offers and didn’t have to sift through BS leaks, because I’m still not buying guys like Jones & Hampton alone are untouchable for Dylan Cease, especially in this SP market.  And under no circumstance is two quality prospects a ridiculous ask for Cease unless we’re talking about 60+ FV guys.  If I had to guess, Getz is still maintaining an aggressive ask and waiting for Snell & Montgomery to sign before dropping it further.  And all this “untouchable” talk, at least with the Yankees, is likely Boras driven leaks to make New York look like a threat to sign his clients.  All that being said, I remain optimistic that a trade happens before OD with the O’s being the most likely suitor.

[Jerksticks]

18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Let’s just say Cease is worth $60M in projected surplus value.  What do we think someone like Westburg is worth?  Let’s just keep this simple and say it’s a 10% chance he’s a 4 win player, a 30% chance he’s a 2.5 win player, a 30% chance he’s a 1 win player, and a 30% chance he’s a complete bust.  You’re looking at a mean projection of 1.45 wins per year.  At a cost of $6M per win (discounted for several reasons), you’re looking at ~$34M in expected surplus value.  Let’s just assume for ease that Beavers & McDermott are worth ~$15M each given they have much higher bust rates and lower ceilings than Westburg.  You’re looking at over $60M in expected surplus value from that package.

It’s not a sexy return by any means and lacks star potential (short of that best case outcome for Westburg), but if your scouts believe in these guys and feel the bust rates are low, there is plenty of value to be extracted from this type of package.  But for a club that has limited opportunities to acquire impact talent due to being a major market team who is afraid to sign stars in free agency, you have to think long & hard about the risk vs. reward of holding Cease until the deadline.  It obviously worked with Quintana, but Hahn had already spun off Sale & Eaton for five top 100 prospects plus multiple very high end guys.  If Getz fucks this up, it will likely set the franchise back multiple years.

I just wish we knew the offers and didn’t have to sift through BS leaks, because I’m still not buying guys like Jones & Hampton alone are untouchable for Dylan Cease, especially in this SP market.  And under no circumstance is two quality prospects a ridiculous ask for Cease unless we’re talking about 60+ FV guys.  If I had to guess, Getz is still maintaining an aggressive ask and waiting for Snell & Montgomery to sign before dropping it further.  And all this “untouchable” talk, at least with the Yankees, is likely Boras driven leaks to make New York look like a threat to sign his clients.  All that being said, I remain optimistic that a trade happens before OD with the O’s being the most likely suitor.

If Westburg is worth more than half of Cease in SV…I mean you’re talking about making a trade that doesn’t even really help us.  
 

If you’re trading a pitcher that will compete for the CYA, isn’t the minimum ask 2 players that will compete for the CYA, but way in the future?  They get to steal the sure thing now from us but we’re okay with that because if things go right, we maybe get 2 of those in the future.  
 

But using your percentages, you want to trade Cease for a guy who has a 10% chance of being really good? And then some other pieces a little worse than that?

I mean you trade for Cease and pay him $20M for 2 years, or you give Blake Snell $175M for 5-6 years.  And that benefit is only worth Westburg?  There’s no way this makes sense

[Jerksticks]

I’d like to add that way more teams are probably in on Cease.  All the teams that can’t spend huge money/years on a pitcher are in.  He’s super valuable to like the entire NL Central just for starters.  Especially since a team could trade him after this year to recoup prospects if they really wanted

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

If Westburg is worth more than half of Cease in SV…I mean you’re talking about making a trade that doesn’t even really help us.  
 

If you’re trading a pitcher that will compete for the CYA, isn’t the minimum ask 2 players that will compete for the CYA, but way in the future?  They get to steal the sure thing now from us but we’re okay with that because if things go right, we maybe get 2 of those in the future.  
 

But using your percentages, you want to trade Cease for a guy who has a 10% chance of being really good? And then some other pieces a little worse than that?

I mean you trade for Cease and pay him $20M for 2 years, or you give Blake Snell $175M for 5-6 years.  And that benefit is only worth Westburg?  There’s no way this makes sense

This is not how trades work unfortunately.  The reality is that prospects reflect a range of potential outcomes.  If the probability of Westburg becoming a star were substantially higher, then his value also goes up a ton and he eventually becomes unattainable or you’re not getting a lot else in a package.  What you are suggesting here seems like two 65 FV pitching prospects which would be worth considerably more than two years of Cease coming his latest season.

And I’m not even suggesting we make this trade, just saying that there is an argument to be made it would represent a fair return.  That’s even more true if our scouts believe Beaver & McDermott are ascending prospects who will be worth considerably more 12 months from now.  Personally, I’d like to see more ceiling and would prefer concentrating value into two players rather than three to make that happen.  But if that requires waiting until the deadline, I’m not yet sure that’s a risk I’d want to take.

[WestEddy]

6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Did the Mets "flooding" the market last year lead to weak offers for TDL pitchers? I sure don't think so. 

Well, tell us all you know. 

[hi8is]

300 pages is gonna be light at this rate 😆

[SkokieSox]

8 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Or they can just keep waiting until the value matches the offers while the White Sox inherit all of the risk 

So be it, waiting is the right move 

[Sleepy Harold]

For those interested, everyone's favorite MIF prospect Joey Ortiz is not in the top 100.