Cease To Padres per Passan

[Tnetennba]

15 minutes ago, Snopek said:

Has Baltimore’s offer for Cease been leaked somewhere or are people just assuming they know what the offer was based on the return for Burnes?

Probably the latter. I haven't seen anything specific about their offers for Cease, other than hints that they weren't still in active discussions when the Burnes deal went down.

[SoCalChiSox]

4 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Probably the latter. I haven't seen anything specific about their offers for Cease, other than hints that they weren't still in active discussions when the Burnes deal went down.

I think Harold said it was basically the same as Burnes except maybe they added one more piece.

I'm assuming that extra piece wasn't a Top 5 guy (perhaps Norby ?).

Yeah that's an easy NO from Getz.

If Getz wanted Westburg plus one of Cowser/Kjerstad and Elias wasn't even offering one of those guys, then we were never even remotely close to a deal.

Props to Elias for the trade he pulled off tho, he did good work for his team.

Edited February 5 by SoCalChiSox

[Tnetennba]

1 minute ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I think Harold said it was basically the same as Burnes except maybe they added one more piece.

I'm assuming that extra piece wasn't a Top 5 guy (perhaps Norby ?).

Yeah that's an easy NO from Getz.

That's what I was alluding to. And that's an easy no without question.

[SoCalChiSox]

Just now, Tnetennba said:

That's what I was alluding to. And that's an easy no without question.

I thought I also saw somewhere that Elias was OK with one of those 3 guys but not 2.

IMO, if he was OK with giving us Kjerstad, Ortiz and Hall I would definitely do that but I highly doubt he would offer us that. 

[Snopek]

1 minute ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I think Harold said it was basically the same as Burnes except maybe they added one more piece.

I'm assuming that extra piece wasn't a Top 5 guy (perhaps Norby ?).

Yeah that's an easy NO from Getz.

That sounds like a lot of uncertainties and assumptions to base a strong opinion on, but then again I'm probably in the minority in that I don't really get too into speculating.

[Tnetennba]

3 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I thought I also saw somewhere that Elias was OK with one of those 3 guys but not 2.

IMO, if he was OK with giving us Kjerstad, Ortiz and Hall I would definitely do that but I highly doubt he would offer us that. 

The LH OF's always seemed like the sticking point to me. Elias was only interested in selling high on prospects that didn't fit into their plans.

[ChiSox59]

3 hours ago, Snopek said:

A potential injury isn’t the only risk. There’s also the risk of poor performance. We all think about his 2022 season and feel like he can get back to something closer to that, but the truth is nobody knows. 

Cease's FIP being nearly a full run better than his ERA has me fairly confident that an improved defense will help him.  You could see Cease get notably rattled many times last season as his defense continued to turn routine flies into doubles and double play balls into 1st and 3rds. 

Nothing is guaranteed for certain, but barring an injury (and Cease has been quite durable), an improvement on 2023 should be close to a given. 

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Cease's FIP being nearly a full run better than his ERA has me fairly confident that an improved defense will help him.  You could see Cease get notably rattled many times last season as his defense continued to turn routine flies into doubles and double play balls into 1st and 3rds. 

Nothing is guaranteed for certain, but barring an injury (and Cease has been quite durable), an improvement on 2023 should be close to a given. 

Statcast has a stat that shows he had one of the worst OAA beyond him last year, so what you are saying is factually true.  Beyond a better defense, fixing the shape of his slider is most paramount to getting closer to 2022 form.  I’m very hopeful that Bannister & Katz with an off-season of work can get Cease to right any mechanical flaws that resulted in its regression.  Dylan has proven he will put the effort in to be the best he can be.  Just got to pray the baseball gods don’t punish us with some random injury luck.

[SkokieSox]

8 hours ago, Snopek said:

A potential injury isn’t the only risk. There’s also the risk of poor performance. We all think about his 2022 season and feel like he can get back to something closer to that, but the truth is nobody knows. 

Calculated risk still holds true

[SkokieSox]

5 hours ago, Snopek said:

Has Baltimore’s offer for Cease been leaked somewhere or are people just assuming they know what the offer was based on the return for Burnes?

It seemed consistent with what the Oriole trolls were determining. The players they were adamant were not being moved, versus on the table, translated pretty much exactly to what Burnes cost. 

[Balta1701]

4 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Cease's FIP being nearly a full run better than his ERA has me fairly confident that an improved defense will help him.  You could see Cease get notably rattled many times last season as his defense continued to turn routine flies into doubles and double play balls into 1st and 3rds. 

Nothing is guaranteed for certain, but barring an injury (and Cease has been quite durable), an improvement on 2023 should be close to a given. 

The problem with focusing on FIP here is that it isn't taking into account how hard the contact was he gave up. It is entirely saying "oh his BABIP is worse we can adjust for that", but his BABIP was worse because he was being hit harder.

Obviously, improving over the worst defense in the league doesn't hurt, but there is a statistical reason why his xERA is quite a bit higher than his FIP. 

All that said, you guys have clearly established also that the stuff is still there, but he needs to find some more effectiveness with his slider. The pitcher he was last year is probably an ERA in the low 4s with a better defense behind him, would definitely like to see some improvement over that.

[South Side Hit Men]

Don’t have Twitter (Nitter is still dead), so don’t know if this is quoting an Mike Axisa tweet (he covers the Yankees and MLB via CBS Sports) or if there is even 1% truth to this, but it would make sense to move Crochet this year if you can get a decent return.

Wonder what the Sox could get in a Crochet and or Cease + Crochet deal.

The time to stretch out Crochet, if it was ever possible, was in 2021-2022 before he was injured. With three years left of control, if he does he builds up enough arm strength over two years, he has one year left of control before FA, unless he stays in AAA for a season plus.

Would think he is more valuable as a trade chip for a team looking for a LH reliever at this stage if they are trying to cash him in.

[SoCalChiSox]

15 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Don’t have Twitter (Nitter is still dead), so don’t know if this is quoting an Mike Axisa tweet (he covers the Yankees and MLB via CBS Sports) or if there is even 1% truth to this, but it would make sense to move Crochet this year if you can get a decent return.

Wonder what the Sox could get in a Crochet and or Cease + Crochet deal.

The time to stretch out Crochet, if it was ever possible, was in 2021-2022 before he was injured. With three years left of control, if he does he builds up enough arm strength over two years, he has one year left of control before FA, unless he stays in AAA for a season plus.

Would think he is more valuable as a trade chip for a team looking for a LH reliever at this stage if they are trying to cash him in.

Crochet for Vivas.

BTV has their SVs as very similar.

Bring me Jorbit Vivas now! He checks alot of boxes for us.....LH 2B with above avg hit tool, good BB% and can stick at the position. Good platoon option for 2B.

[Quin]

40 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Don’t have Twitter (Nitter is still dead), so don’t know if this is quoting an Mike Axisa tweet (he covers the Yankees and MLB via CBS Sports) or if there is even 1% truth to this, but it would make sense to move Crochet this year if you can get a decent return.

Wonder what the Sox could get in a Crochet and or Cease + Crochet deal.

The time to stretch out Crochet, if it was ever possible, was in 2021-2022 before he was injured. With three years left of control, if he does he builds up enough arm strength over two years, he has one year left of control before FA, unless he stays in AAA for a season plus.

Would think he is more valuable as a trade chip for a team looking for a LH reliever at this stage if they are trying to cash him in.

If I'm packaging Crochet with Cease, the Yankees better pay up.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Don’t have Twitter (Nitter is still dead), so don’t know if this is quoting an Mike Axisa tweet (he covers the Yankees and MLB via CBS Sports) or if there is even 1% truth to this, but it would make sense to move Crochet this year if you can get a decent return.

Wonder what the Sox could get in a Crochet and or Cease + Crochet deal.

The time to stretch out Crochet, if it was ever possible, was in 2021-2022 before he was injured. With three years left of control, if he does he builds up enough arm strength over two years, he has one year left of control before FA, unless he stays in AAA for a season plus.

Would think he is more valuable as a trade chip for a team looking for a LH reliever at this stage if they are trying to cash him in.

Crochet is another guy where "actually seeing him pitch" for a while should lead to a pretty substantial increase in his value compared to today. For a guy who basically hasn't pitched in 2 years, I'd be expecting a huge discount if I was trading for him. 

[Bob Sacamano]

Kershaw signs with Dodgers. According to this story, Thursday is the first day teams can place players on the 60-day IL so sounds like he will go directly there so no 40-man space needed.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/dodgers-re-sign-clayton-kershaw.html

Edited February 6 by Bob Sacamano

[baseball_gal_aly]

We all pretty much in agreement that Cease isn't getting traded until July at this point? 

[SoCalChiSox]

15 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

We all pretty much in agreement that Cease isn't getting traded until July at this point? 

No....not necessarily. 

Why would that be the case?

Nightengale said I think even before the BAL-MIL trade that SEA was the team most likely to deal. 

And NYY is still out there as a possibility particularly if their pitching looks shaky in ST.

There are still several other clubs in need as well and are likely to be in need after Montgomery and Snell sign. 

Its certainly possible it could go to the deadline but I doubt it with that much demand out there. 

I wouldn't be shocked if it went into ST tho because Boras is holding out for his FAs

 

Edited February 6 by SoCalChiSox

[Bob Sacamano]

19 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

We all pretty much in agreement that Cease isn't getting traded until July at this point? 

It depends on if they want to gamble on his first half. Take the best offer now or wait for a bigger market when teams need pitching and they can't fallback on free agency. What I would do? As I said the other day, hold onto him (unless you get a good offer) and just put the defense behind him every game.

Edited February 6 by Bob Sacamano

[SoCalChiSox]

If DiPoto puts a fair offer on the table like Miller/Woo, Clase and Montes (49m SV), then I would expect Getz to take it and part with Cease (42m SV).

If opposing GMs are still dicking around with garbage offers like what Elias reportedly offered (around 36m roughly), then Getz will hold him.

[WestEddy]

I hear Arizona has a top-level pitching prospect in AAA. All he needs to do is add a couple of ticks to his fastball, and he's a staff ace. I wonder if he could headline a package for Cease. 

[Snopek]

14 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I hear Arizona has a top-level pitching prospect in AAA. All he needs to do is add a couple of ticks to his fastball, and he's a staff ace. I wonder if he could headline a package for Cease. 

We get it. You like the Fletcher trade.

[baseball_gal_aly]

Cease struggling to hit 94 in bullpens is a big yikes. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

It's Feb 7th for god's sake.  The absolute worst thing if Cease doesn't get traded will be everyone falling over themselves to be the first to diagnose an injury.  OH MY GOD HIS VELO IS DOWN .8675309 MPH!!!  i KNEW IT!!!! I SAID HE WAS GOING TO HURT!!!! HE'S HURT AND NOW HIS ARM IS GOING TO BE AMPUTATED!!!  OH THE HUMANITY!

Edited February 7 by Harold's Leg Lift

[DirtySox]

28 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Cease struggling to hit 94 in bullpens is a big yikes. 

My god.

That article mentioned nothing about "struggling to hit 94." It said he's encouraged to be at 94 and meeting his goal of a mile per bullpen session. Can't you just wait and see how it plays out Instead of just feeding everything into your miserable dour Cease scenario? You are like Parkman reincarnated.

Edited February 7 by DirtySox