T R U Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 17 hours ago, baseball_gal_aly said: I don't necessarily think Cease sucks. I just don't think he's a TOR pitcher and if I were an opposing GM I wouldn't pay the price for him. I'd tell Getz, fine keep him then. He doesn't go deep enough into games for me and he walks too many batters and generally, outside of 2022, gives up too many runs. He's a fine mid-rotation guy. Returns should be expected as such. Think of what Giolito got as a rental and that's kinda what I'd expect for Cease. 1 back end T100 guy and a few interesting players that are of the Nastrini/Bush mold. What is a TOR pitcher? FIP-Based WAR rankings for Cease from fangraphs. 2021 - 13th - 4.5 2022 - 11th - 4.4 2023 - 18th - 3.7 Hes been roughly a top 15 pitcher in baseball the last 3 years, and considering there are only 30 spots for #1 in a rotation I would say hes a top of the rotation pitcher. What is your criteria? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 8 hours ago, T R U said: What is a TOR pitcher? FIP-Based WAR rankings for Cease from fangraphs. 2021 - 13th - 4.5 2022 - 11th - 4.4 2023 - 18th - 3.7 Hes been roughly a top 15 pitcher in baseball the last 3 years, and considering there are only 30 spots for #1 in a rotation I would say hes a top of the rotation pitcher. What is your criteria? The problem still is that FIP isn't capturing what his problem was last year - FIP thinks that he was the same pitcher in 2022 and 2023 basically, when he clearly wasn't. His strikeout rate stayed almost the same, but his hard contact rates went from in the top 10% of all MLB in 2022 to the bottom 40% of all qualified pitchers in MLB in 2023. His expected ERA went from top 10% in MLB in 2022 (true TOR Pitcher) to 47th percentile (mid rotation innings eater) in 2023. Because these hard hit rates are mostly being absorbed as more home runs and more hits overall, FIP is saying "Oh that's just bad luck in 2023 and great luck in 2022" and factoring this out. You can find long records of White Sox fans here saying that he had lost velocity and wasn't the same pitcher in 2023 and they were right as he was getting hit harder the whole year as a consequence. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: The problem still is that FIP isn't capturing what his problem was last year - FIP thinks that he was the same pitcher in 2022 and 2023 basically, when he clearly wasn't. His strikeout rate stayed almost the same, but his hard contact rates went from in the top 10% of all MLB in 2022 to the bottom 40% of all qualified pitchers in MLB in 2023. His expected ERA went from top 10% in MLB in 2022 (true TOR Pitcher) to 47th percentile (mid rotation innings eater) in 2023. Because these hard hit rates are mostly being absorbed as more home runs and more hits overall, FIP is saying "Oh that's just bad luck in 2023 and great luck in 2022" and factoring this out. You can find long records of White Sox fans here saying that he had lost velocity and wasn't the same pitcher in 2023 and they were right as he was getting hit harder the whole year as a consequence. He’s still a front of the rotation pitcher with age and contract on his side. That’s not really debatable, and based off reports most insiders agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 1 minute ago, T R U said: He’s still a front of the rotation pitcher with age and contract on his side. That’s not really debatable, and based off reports most insiders agree. And I said it was coming - based on all these reports of high demand for him and it being not debatable that he's a front of the rotation pitcher, why hasn't he moved yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: And I said it was coming - based on all these reports of high demand for him and it being not debatable that he's a front of the rotation pitcher, why hasn't he moved yet? I'm guessing the market is waiting for some other guys to sign and Getz is playing teams off against each other which is a smart thing to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: And I said it was coming - based on all these reports of high demand for him and it being not debatable that he's a front of the rotation pitcher, why hasn't he moved yet? Because he sucks and is worthless 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 30 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: And I said it was coming - based on all these reports of high demand for him and it being not debatable that he's a front of the rotation pitcher, why hasn't he moved yet? I don’t have the answer to that, but I feel pretty confident in saying it’s not because of lack of interest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, T R U said: I don’t have the answer to that, but I feel pretty confident in saying it’s not because of lack of interest There's interest, but no one is close to offering the kind of value people want him to bring, and people are using the media and social media leaks to try to drive interest. This is pretty darn obvious at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: There's interest, but no one is close to offering the kind of value people want him to bring, and people are using the media and social media leaks to try to drive interest. This is pretty darn obvious at this point. Or the simple answer is everyone is waiting for Ohtani decide. People can take or leave his sources, but NBB said they were going to wait. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: There's interest, but no one is close to offering the kind of value people want him to bring, and people are using the media and social media leaks to try to drive interest. This is pretty darn obvious at this point. There is no rush at all to trade him, I don’t see how the speed of when the trade happens tells anything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 AA spins off Marco and White. Just runs circles around our FO 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, bmags said: AA spins off Marco and White. Just runs circles around our FO Meanwhile, Getz is still bragging about how one year of Soroka, two years of a solid utility guy, and a couple fringe prospects is a “foundational” move. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Meanwhile, Getz is still bragging about how one year of Soroka, two years of a solid utility guy, and a couple fringe prospects is a “foundational” move. This is a thing on the board I’ve long championed though as people lament the risk in big deals. If you start to paper clip trade you can half life these deals. Saves 3 mill on life if white, then aim to chip away at fletcher. its not your life signed away if you aren’t lazy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Noticed the Braves have 3 catchers now. Next they will spinoff the Stassi money. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 On 12/5/2023 at 8:07 PM, T R U said: I don’t have the answer to that, but I feel pretty confident in saying it’s not because of lack of interest We need patience..."a watched pot never boils." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pal Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 (edited) Disregard Edited December 9, 2023 by Pal . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Pal said: Huh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Pal said: Disregard What you hearing Pal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 18 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said: Noticed the Braves have 3 catchers now. Next they will spinoff the Stassi money. Probably to us…lol 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Probably to us…lol How’s his defense lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 24 minutes ago, Pal said: Disregard WHAT??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said: Probably to us…lol Barnhart? Hedges? A spare Braves catcher they don't really need that might incrementally improve '24 team? T-Flow to coach? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 On 12/5/2023 at 7:12 PM, Balta1701 said: There's interest, but no one is close to offering the kind of value people want him to bring, and people are using the media and social media leaks to try to drive interest. This is pretty darn obvious at this point. There really hasn’t been big leaks of offers so I don’t know how you say they are using leaks to drive interest. Can you give an example? I’m guessing not. Using that logic, Ohtani is having a tough time getting legit offers. We heard he was signing before the winter meetings, then during them, then on a plane to Toronto. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 23 hours ago, Bob Sacamano said: Noticed the Braves have 3 catchers now. Next they will spinoff the Stassi money. Good call. 23 hours ago, Pal said: Disregard Maybe he knew Stassi was headed here. 23 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: What you hearing Pal? 22 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: Probably to us…lol Bingo ! Good one ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Just following the MLBTR chat, and Steve Adams said this: Quote Also, their convoluted sequence of Kelenic/Stassi/Fletcher trades pushed them into the second luxury tier, so any deal to which they sign Yamamoto would be taxed at an extra 42% under the CBT. Side note: I do not understand the Braves' sequence of trades, which added about $31MM to the payroll all for the sake of swapping out Nicky Lopez for a worse/more expensive version of the same skill set (David Fletcher) and rolling the dice on Kelenic. I tend to agree. It looks like a lot of juggling just to buy 40-man slots. It's all fun, but Kelenic is still a lotto ticket, at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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