South Side Hit Men Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 (edited) I thought about making this a poll, but it really comes down to two positions: When can the Sox amass enough major league talent through their organization over the next 12 months? Will Jerry continue to drastically slash payroll like the $50M this year, or will he stabilize and possibly even increase payroll over the next season or two? They are starting around $100M for 2025 depending on any option pickups before any FA signings. Will there be enough funds to fill-out a competitive roster, pick up 1-2 each of solid starters, SPs and RPs? Or is 2026 or beyond a more realistic target in terms of player development and an extra year of signings and drafts? Are there any options or 2025 FAs you would pursue, without the benefit of knowing how 2024 plays out? Position (2025 fWAR projection) Player (2025 Age) 2025 Contract / Projected Arbitration Manager: ??? Payroll before any FA signings $96.2M $43.3M Position Players (13.1 fWAR) C (1.0) Edgar Quero (22) $0.8M 1B (1.1) Andrew Vaughn (27) $5.5M (Arb 2 Estimate) 2B (0.6) Lenyn Sosa (25) $0.8M 3B (1.0) Bryan Ramos (23) $0.8M SS (0.9) Colson Montgomery (23) $0.8M LF (1.2) Andrew Benintendi (30) $16.5M CF (3.9) Luis Robert Junior (27) $12.5M RF (1.0) Dominic Fletcher (27) $0.8M OF (0.7) Peyton Burdick (28) $0.8M C (0.1) Korey Lee (26) $0.8M INF (0.3) Jose Rodriguez (24) $0.8M SS (0.6) Braden Shewmake (27) $0.8M OF (0.0) Oscar Colas (26) $0.8M OF (0.7) Zach DeLoach (26) $0.8M $31.3M Starting Pitchers SP (3.1) Dylan Cease (29) $10.5M (Arb 3 Estimate) SP (1.2) Erick Fedde (32) $7.5M SP (1.3) Nick Nastrini (25) $0.8M SP (1.2) Jared Schuster (25) $0.8M SP (0.7) Michael Kopech (29) $5.5M (Arb 3 Estimate) SP (0.6) Garrett Crochet (26) $3.0M (Arb 2 Estimate) SP (0.8) Josimar Cousin (27) $0.8M SP (0.7) Jake Eder (26) $0.8M SP (1.3) Davis Martin (27) $0.8M SP (0.8) Jesse Scholtens (31) $0.8M $11.3M Relief Pitchers RP (0.3) Touki Toussaint (29) $2.2M (Arb 2 Estimate) RP (0.3) Matt Foster (30) $1.3M (Arb 2 Estimate) RP (0.2) Jimmy Lambert (30) $1.1M (Arb 1 Estimate) RP (0.5) Tanner Banks (33) $1.1M (Arb 1 Estimate) RP (0.7) Prelander Berroa (25) $0.8M RP (0.9) Shane Drohan (26) $0.8M RP (0.2) Deivi Garcia (26) $0.8M RP (0.2) Bailey Horn (27) $0.8M RP (0.6) Sammy Peralta (27) $0.8M RP (0.2) Alex Speas (27) $0.8M RP (-0.3) Nicholas Padilla (28) $0.8M $10.3M Potential to Likely Buyouts or Cuts C (0.9) Max Stassi (34) $0.5M (Club option $7.5M) C (-1.1) Martin Maldonado (38) $0.3M (Club option $4.0M) 3B (1.6) Yoan Moncada (30) $5.0M (Club option $25.0M) DH (-0.4) Gavin Sheets (29) $0.0M (Arb 1) DH (1.2) Eloy Jimenez (28) $3.0M (Club option $16.5M) RP (0.2) John Brebbia $1.5M (Mutual option $6.0M) 2025 Free Agents 2B (0.6) Nicky Lopez (30) - Arb 4 eligible SS (0.8) Paul DeJong (31) INF/OF (0.8) Danny Mendick (31) SP (1.3) Michael Soroka (27) SP (1.0) Chris Flexen (30) RP (-0.4) Tim Hill (35) Edited March 4 by South Side Hit Men Corrected Nastrini salary cut and paste fail noted by Balta. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Need to develop some hitters. Quero, Montgomery and Ramos would be a good start. But could use a real OF masher or 2. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball_gal_aly Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Probably 2028 or later. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 26 minutes ago, GreenSox said: Need to develop some hitters. Quero, Montgomery and Ramos would be a good start. But could use a real OF masher or 2. And most of them have to pan out, since we have so few good position prospects. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 We've made our playoff appearance for this decade. 2030 is the soonest we'll be competitive again. https://champsorchumps.us/team/mlb/chicago-white-sox 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 39 minutes ago, GreenSox said: Need to develop some hitters. Quero, Montgomery and Ramos would be a good start. But could use a real OF masher or 2. I wanted to put all the current possibilities in my Opening Post, but agree those three would be huge pieces and it may take until 2026 until they get firmly entrenched in their MLB roles. People are prejudging Getz that what he is doing with $50M slashed in payroll and limited organizational depth, but I am hoping and believe as the prospects are ready he will be able to shift gears and begin filling out a roster properly once he has the resources to do so. Will be very disappointed if the marginal veterans brought in will get the bulk of the playing time ahead of younger players, or will Getz/Pedro/New Manager prioritize evaluation and development and ease veterans into reserve roles or perhaps flip for marginal prospects. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said: I thought about making this a poll, but it really comes down to two positions: When can the Sox amass enough major league talent through their organization over the next 12 months? Will Jerry continue to drastically slash payroll like the $50M this year, or will he stabilize and possibly even increase payroll over the next season or two? They are starting around $100M for 2025 depending on any option pickups before any FA signings. Will there be enough funds to fill-out a competitive roster, pick up 1-2 each of solid starters, SPs and RPs? Or is 2026 or beyond a more realistic target in terms of player development and an extra year of signings and drafts? Are there any options or 2025 FAs you would pursue, without the benefit of knowing how 2024 plays out? Position (2025 fWAR projection) Player (2025 Age) 2025 Contract / Projected Arbitration Manager: Payroll before any FA signings $96.4M $44.3M Position Players (13.1 fWAR) C (1.0) Edgar Quero (22) $0.8M 1B (1.1) Andrew Vaughn (27) $5.5M (Arb 2 Estimate) 2B (0.6) Lenyn Sosa (25) $0.8M 3B (1.0) Bryan Ramos (23) $0.8M SS (0.9) Colson Montgomery (23) $0.8M LF (1.2) Andrew Benintendi (30) $16.5M CF (3.9) Luis Robert Junior (27) $12.5M RF (1.0) Dominic Fletcher (27) $0.8M OF (0.7) Peyton Burdick (28) $0.8M C (0.1) Korey Lee (26) $0.8M INF (0.3) Jose Rodriguez (24) $0.8M SS (0.6) Braden Shewmake (27) $0.8M OF (0.0) Oscar Colas (26) $0.8M OF (0.7) Zach DeLoach (26) $0.8M $30.5M Starting Pitchers SP (3.1) Dylan Cease (29) $10.5M (Arb 3 Estimate) SP (1.2) Erick Fedde (32) $7.5M SP (1.3) Nick Nastrini (25) $7.5M SP (1.2) Jared Schuster (25) $0.8M SP (0.7) Michael Kopech (29) $5.5M (Arb 3 Estimate) SP (0.6) Garrett Crochet (26) $3.0M (Arb 2 Estimate) SP (0.8) Josimar Cousin (27) $0.8M SP (0.7) Jake Eder (26) $0.8M SP (1.3) Davis Martin (27) $0.8M SP (0.8) Jesse Scholtens (31) $0.8M $11.3M Relief Pitchers RP (0.3) Touki Toussaint (29) $2.2M (Arb 2 Estimate) RP (0.3) Matt Foster (30) $1.3M (Arb 2 Estimate) RP (0.2) Jimmy Lambert (30) $1.1M (Arb 1 Estimate) RP (0.5) Tanner Banks (33) $1.1M (Arb 1 Estimate) RP (0.7) Prelander Berroa (25) $0.8M RP (0.9) Shane Drohan (26) $0.8M RP (0.2) Deivi Garcia (26) $0.8M RP (0.2) Bailey Horn (27) $0.8M RP (0.6) Sammy Peralta (27) $0.8M RP (0.2) Alex Speas (27) $0.8M RP (-0.3) Nicholas Padilla (28) $0.8M $10.3M Potential to Likely Buyouts or Cuts C (0.9) Max Stassi (34) $0.5M (Club option $7.5M) C (-1.1) Martin Maldonado (38) $0.3M (Club option $4.0M) 3B (1.6) Yoan Moncada (30) $5.0M (Club option $25.0M) DH (-0.4) Gavin Sheets (29) $0.0M (Arb 1) DH (1.2) Eloy Jimenez (28) $3.0M (Club option $16.5M) RP (0.2) John Brebbia $1.5M (Mutual option $6.0M) 2025 Free Agents 2B (0.6) Nicky Lopez (30) - Arb 4 eligible SS (0.8) Paul DeJong (31) INF/OF (0.8) Danny Mendick (31) SP (1.3) Michael Soroka (27) SP (1.0) Chris Flexen (30) RP (-0.4) Tim Hill (35) How exactly does a guy who hasn’t yet made his big league debut in Nastrini have a $7.5 million 2025 salary? I think this is an error but Rick Hahn was the GM for a long time so… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Best case scenario, with returns from a few more trades like Cease and Fedde, this team will have some guys who can step in and a fair amount of money to spend next offseason. They don’t look anything like a World Series champ, but getting close to .500 and being back to 4th place in the AL central is feasible. More realistically, that probably involves too many things going right. They don’t have a lot of talent in the organization and their development staff has yet to give us any reason for confidence. Especially with Grifol probably still managing in 2025, my guess is it looks a lot like 2023 - they make some signings, think they’re better than they are, and then disappoint. That is my standing prediction for 2026-2027 as well. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 2026 is the best case philosophy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: Best case scenario, with returns from a few more trades like Cease and Fedde, this team will have some guys who can step in and a fair amount of money to spend next offseason. They don’t look anything like a World Series champ, but getting close to .500 and being back to 4th place in the AL central is feasible. More realistically, that probably involves too many things going right. They don’t have a lot of talent in the organization and their development staff has yet to give us any reason for confidence. Especially with Grifol probably still managing in 2025, my guess is it looks a lot like 2023 - they make some signings, think they’re better than they are, and then disappoint. That is my standing prediction for 2026-2027 as well. My OG post also has Cease because he's still under control but there is a good chance he's not here next ST. If this was the 2019 or 2020, would argue to keep, but this is more like 2016-2018 in terms of where the position player prospects are at this stage. There is a decent amount of upside among the couple dozen younger pitchers which gives me hope. If you have 6-8 good to very good pitchers, coupled with Robert and the three top position players, they would have at least half a solid team which they have only had one season across two years (two months of 2020, first four months of 2021) since the 2005-2008 run. Also hoping Getz will do a better job spreading out the top draft selections between HS and NCAA, as opposed to going all in on college picks and leaving the minors barren until the next set of tanking trades. Also needs to stay in the bargain bin for now to maximize future flexibility, and don't sign long term expensive players until the core is in place. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcq Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 There is no evidence Getz knows how to build a team. The number of years is irrelevant. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 We will scrap to win 60 games this year. A 10 game improvement PER YEAR (which would be huge) would put contention in around 2027. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 12 hours ago, Balta1701 said: Best case scenario, with returns from a few more trades like Cease and Fedde, this team will have some guys who can step in and a fair amount of money to spend next offseason. They don’t look anything like a World Series champ, but getting close to .500 and being back to 4th place in the AL central is feasible. More realistically, that probably involves too many things going right. They don’t have a lot of talent in the organization and their development staff has yet to give us any reason for confidence. Especially with Grifol probably still managing in 2025, my guess is it looks a lot like 2023 - they make some signings, think they’re better than they are, and then disappoint. That is my standing prediction for 2026-2027 as well. You think the AL Central is going to field 4 ~> .500 teams in a single season with balanced schedules? I can't see that. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 As soon as the Sox actually develop a player that is pretty damn good, then we can look at a timeline where they may be a good team. Montgomery looks to be good. I hope to God he is good, because if he fails, hope is going to be hard to come by. A guy like Ramos is the type of player the Sox haven't developed in a couple of decades. If he turns out to be a good MLB player, we may have some hope. If not, think of how bad the White Sox would still be if they didn't have Sale and Q and Eaton to trade. They aren't going to build through the draft. They aren't going to build through international signings. They aren't going to sign expensive free agents. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Competitive in this division? Sure. Sox have very little committed to the 2025 roster and payroll besides a bargain superstar in Robert. A little tough to see Getz's longer term vision at this point (besides improving the defense) as nearly everyone he has acquired is a 1 year stop gap outside of Fletcher. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScootsMcGoots Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 (edited) 1 hour ago, Dick Allen said: They aren't going to build through the draft. They aren't going to build through international signings. They aren't going to sign expensive free agents. And that is how you become mired in mediocrity. Edited March 4 by ScootsMcGoots 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said: You think the AL Central is going to field 4 ~> .500 teams in a single season with balanced schedules? I can't see that. At least right now it seems like the Royals, Tigers, Guardians, and Twins could all be in a pretty tight race, within a few games of .500 this year. Things probably fall apart for one of them, but that doesn't seem like an awful guess right now does it? The only team in this division that looks hopeless in 2024 is the White Sox. If you told me the 4th place team had 77 wins and the 1st place team had 85 wins, that seems believable to me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: At least right now it seems like the Royals, Tigers, Guardians, and Twins could all be in a pretty tight race, within a few games of .500 this year. Things probably fall apart for one of them, but that doesn't seem like an awful guess right now does it? The only team in this division that looks hopeless in 2024 is the White Sox. If you told me the 4th place team had 77 wins and the 1st place team had 85 wins, that seems believable to me? In the AL Central? With a balanced schedule? Yeah no. 2, maybe 3 tops. Too many other huge spending teams to suck up those wins around the rest of baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sin city sox fan Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 As long as Grifol is around, we will never be competitive. It just depends when Reinsdorf is ready to bite the bullet on this horrible hire. Bring back Ozzie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joejoesox Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 well if 2025 is our target, they gotta first start getting rid of the guys they called up because they're all bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 I’d say almost no chance they can be competitive next year. I think 2026 is the earliest we could see a decent product and that requires the first wave of minor league talent to mostly be successful and for us to do well in any sell-off trades this year, especially in regards to Cease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Don't see any path in 2025 unless every borderline SP they've brought in as a rehab project somehow stays healthy and pitches to a 2-4 WAR level. Even if the bats emerge in Colas, Colson and Ramos we're going to need at least 2-3 decent, league average or better SP before we compete for anything other than 90-100 losses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnetennba Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Realistically, no. Too many things have to go right, and things going right in this org feels improbable. If by some miracle they luck into a few breakout performances from the kids, maybe the can creep into the 70+ win range in 2025. Even then ownership's penchant for not investing wisely is a potential roadblock. I can't even venture a guess as to when they might be. Even four years out feels like a stretch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boopa1219 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Who is managing the team? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, sin city sox fan said: As long as Grifol is around, we will never be competitive. It just depends when Reinsdorf is ready to bite the bullet on this horrible hire. Bring back Ozzie. As much as I appreciate Ozzie's passion and thank him for his services, he's already quit on the team once...that shouldn't be rewarded. Remember on the day JR agreed to let him out of his contract that afternoon he told the media he wouldn't want to return the next season without a raise and an extension. A deal he had agreed to and still had a year to run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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