CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 We all know that hindsight is 20/20 but what I'm getting at is what difference does making the right decision instead of the wrong one mean in terms of wins and losses ? I will try to examine as many things as I can and let you draw your own conclusions. When the Sox signed LaRoche he had just turned 35 and the left handed hitter coming off a good year with the Nationals with a line of .259/.362/.455/.817 with 26 homers and 92 RBIs. He had 82 walks and 108 strikeouts over 140 games an OPS of .817 . His stats against LH pitching had been in a steady decline so the Sox had to know they were getting a guy who realistically could only be productive against RH's . He only had 19 doubles so if you had to make a comparison to a similar player Adam Dunn had to come to mind . NL player with high OBP with plus power and high K totals His 2014 was a bounce back year . In 2013 his line was .237 /.332 /.403 /.735 62 RBI's with more K's and less walks and even less production against LH's. His home and road splits also were radically different in 2014 . Home line was .305/.406/.510/.916 . Road line .212/.316/.400/.716 . So the Sox had to ask themselves could an aging player similiar to Adam Dunn feel at home in a new league surrounded by new team mates ? LaRoche was signed to a 2 year $25M contract and his 2015 line was .207/.293/.340/.634 When the Royals signed Morales he was 31 years old and would turn 32 during the season (June 20). The switch hitting Cuban born Morales signed in December so he was available when the Sox signed LaRoche . His whole career to that point was played in the AL. His 2014 was a disaster . With Scott Boras as his agent he held out looking for the big pay day which never came because teams did not want to give up a draft pick for a DH only player even though he had a good year in 2013 playing in a career high 156 games with a line of .277/.336/.449/.785. He ended up missing spring training and the 1st 60 games of the season after finally signing with the Twins in June . Since it was after the ML draft the Twins did not lose a draft pick. He never recovered from having missed so much time and between the Twins and Mariners his final line was .218/.274/.338/.612 . If the Sox looked at him as a possibility they would have to look at his years before 2014 and hope for a bounce back. Between 2009 and 2013 — not including a 2011 campaign lost to injury — Morales owned a cumulative .286/.339/.494 line while averaging over twenty home runs per season. That was good for a 128 OPS+ . As a switch hitter he could always hit both righties and lefties but was a better LH hitter when it came to HR's by a wide margin. He had also dumped Boras as his agent and is a countryman of the Sox most valuable position player , Jose Abreu. Morales agreed to a two-year, $17MM deal. He could earn an additional $750K per year through performance incentives. The contract included a mutual option for a third year. His final line : .290/.362/.485/.847 with 41 doubles , 22 HR's and 106 RBI . To be fair KC has a more spacious outfield than the Cell but his home/road splits were very similiar and his OPS+ was 128 at home and 140 on the road. Also the Sox lineup is certainly not as good as KC so RBI total would be worse most likely. How much better would the Sox have been having Morales over LaRoche ? A very consistent bat home and away who could hit from both sides of the plate in the middle of the lineup makes a huge difference. Abreu wouldn't have to swing at as much junk as he did knowing he had a professional hitter behind him in the lineup. Maybe the Sox take a lot more leads into late innings . It's something I find very difficult to figure out. I hope some of you don't just look at their respective WAR and see the difference is about 3.5 Wins and answer the Sox would be 3-4 games better with Morales having the same type of year in Chicago as he did in KC . I don't think baseball is an exact science like that. I know that answers will be hard to quantify but give it your best shot . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bear_brian Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Last winter I made a series of suggestions as to what the Sox should do. Among those was acquiring Kendry Morales. There were a group of regulars on this board who scoffed at that notion. He certainly would have been a major improvement over LaRoche, and would have given the lineup that much more flexibility as a switch hitter. Unfortunately, Hahn spent more money on LaRoche, and we now have to live for another year with that decision. The only possible silver lining is that LaRoche's hand was really sore all of last year, and he will bounce back this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 QUOTE (bear_brian @ Oct 31, 2015 -> 12:43 PM) Last winter I made a series of suggestions as to what the Sox should do. Among those was acquiring Kendry Morales. There were a group of regulars on this board who scoffed at that notion. He certainly would have been a major improvement over LaRoche, and would have given the lineup that much more flexibility as a switch hitter. Unfortunately, Hahn spent more money on LaRoche, and we now have to live for another year with that decision. The only possible silver lining is that LaRoche's hand was really sore all of last year, and he will bounce back this year. Probably because the last 2 seasons he was below replacement player value. I didnt expect him to turn into a positive producing player at this stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 QUOTE (bear_brian @ Oct 31, 2015 -> 10:43 AM) Last winter I made a series of suggestions as to what the Sox should do. Among those was acquiring Kendry Morales. There were a group of regulars on this board who scoffed at that notion. He certainly would have been a major improvement over LaRoche, and would have given the lineup that much more flexibility as a switch hitter. Unfortunately, Hahn spent more money on LaRoche, and we now have to live for another year with that decision. The only possible silver lining is that LaRoche's hand was really sore all of last year, and he will bounce back this year. You do have to have a thick skin when giving your opinion. I get scoffed at often but you have to chalk it up to most people stick to their guns regardless of strength of argument. It's also very difficult to keep track of most things we say on here and saying I was right you were wrong comes off as arrogant and self serving. I think I'm right a lot of the time and will point it out but it takes a lot of time and effort to search for anything . I never gave my opinion on how the Sox would 've done with Morales instead of LaRoche but I'll just say they could've been 15 games better. I know that will get scoffed at too. My reasoning is KC probably isn't as good especially if they sign LaRoche instead. Sox, Cleveland ,Detroit were all pretty equal with Minnesota only slightly ahead of them. I think Morales would've propelled the Sox above everyone except the Royals. Maybe Abreu gets a little more selective at the plate and does better. Maybe Eaton's base running improves knowing he doesn't have to take as many risky chances with 2 good hitters behind him. Maybe Robertson gets 40-45 saves instead of 34. Baseball is a chain reaction sport. Playing well begets playing well. Hawk often phrases it as "its contagious " .Bad things and good things snowball then develops into either a winning or losing attitude. Getting on a roll and getting TWTW cannot be understated . L know I lose credibility quoting Hawk but not everything he says is nonsense . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I was proposing Morales as an offseason addition during the 2014 season, but I really can't blame Hahn for going with the guy coming off a very solid season vs. the guy coming off a not-so-good one. My only issue would be if they chose him because they over-valued his character, which I doubt was the case. Despite how bad LaRoche was last year, I'm not quite ready to give up on him. First and foremost, the entire organization must come to the conclusion that Adam is a platoon player. Don't really care what the expectations were when he signed his contract, the guy should not being facing LHP period. Second, Robin needs to give him more starts at 1B. He's clearly the strongest defender there, which allows him to provide some value regardless of how he hits. Additionally, it seems like he really struggled with DHing and Abreu has shown no major splits offensively regardless if he's playing the field or not. Throw in some improved health and I think we can got some decent production out of him next year. Having said that, we need to have some contingencies in place in case that doesn't happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFutureIsNear Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I really wanted Adam Lind...that would be looking pretty good right now too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 30, 2015 -> 06:22 PM) Fair point... If the White Sox had Lind or Morales they still would have sucked and had a lowere unprotected draft pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 QUOTE (bear_brian @ Oct 31, 2015 -> 05:43 PM) LaRoche's hand was really sore all of last year, and he will bounce back this year. He's not going to bounce back. He's buzzkill just as Dunn was. Horrible acquistion in LaRoche. At least Dunn smashed a few bombs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 If we had signed Morales his left leg would have fell off and gravy would have spilled out. 2015 wasn't our year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigsoxhurt35 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 We still would've sucked... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigsoxhurt35 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 31, 2015 -> 04:50 PM) If we had signed Morales his left leg would have fell off and gravy would have spilled out. 2015 wasn't our year. Hasn't been our year since '05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 We may not have a top 10 protected pick. So thank god we signed LaRoche. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 All you guys make Charlie Brown seem like an optimist. For those saying we still would 've sucked , want to take a stab at how many more good position players , relievers, starting pitching it would take to be around 10 games over .500 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Oct 31, 2015 -> 08:21 PM) All you guys make Charlie Brown seem like an optimist. For those saying we still would 've sucked , want to take a stab at how many more good position players , relievers, starting pitching it would take to be around 10 games over .500 ? Agree. We would have been better with him. Around the deadline, look at our record. With Morales, we likely have more wins and are ahead of a few more teams and we go out and they go ahead and bring someone in at the deadline. Who really knows what would have happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 (edited) LaRoche wasn't really a high K guy, to say he was similar to Dunn in that regard is just false. LaRoche's career K% is 22% which is slightly below average, and in 2014 his K% was just 18.4%, well below anything Dunn ever put up. Yeah I know he struckout a lot this year but that was unusual for him. Also I'm not ready to write him off for 2016 yet. Even Dunn was able to bounce back after his historically bad 2011 to make the All-Star team the next year, and LaRoche has a pretty good track record, I don't think he just completely lost all his ability to hit. My expectations aren't exactly high for him especially given his age, but I wouldn't expect him to be nearly as bad as he was in 2015 either, especially if Robin limits his ABs against LHP which I think he will, like he did with Conor this year before we finally pulled the plug on him. Edited November 1, 2015 by OmarComing25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitekrazy Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 At least he faced AL pitching. I think it would have been a step up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballz Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 He's not going to bounce back. He's buzzkill just as Dunn was. Horrible acquistion in LaRoche. At least Dunn smashed a few bombs. LOL... I love how Greg is so honest. Also, QFT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballz Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 LaRoche wasn't really a high K guy, to say he was similar to Dunn in that regard is just false. LaRoche's career K% is 22% which is slightly below average, and in 2014 his K% was just 18.4%, well below anything Dunn ever put up. Yeah I know he struckout a lot this year but that was unusual for him. Also I'm not ready to write him off for 2016 yet. Even Dunn was able to bounce back after his historically bad 2011 to make the All-Star team the next year, and LaRoche has a pretty good track record, I don't think he just completely lost all his ability to hit. My expectations aren't exactly high for him especially given his age, but I wouldn't expect him to be nearly as bad as he was in 2015 either, especially if Robin limits his ABs against LHP which I think he will, like he did with Conor this year before we finally pulled the plug on him. Looks like a guy swimming...in a pool of suck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reiks12 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 The Royals would have signed LaRoche and he would have put up Morales numbers. We would have signed Morales and he would have put up LaRoche numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 QUOTE (reiks12 @ Oct 31, 2015 -> 11:36 PM) The Royals would have signed LaRoche and he would have put up Morales numbers. We would have signed Morales and he would have put up LaRoche numbers. I don't see why I see this kind of post so often. We are not a snake bit team or have a curse of anything of that nature. It just was an ill advised signing of a player who was too old and could not contribute every day . These kind of "eeyore" posts are kind of silly. Instead of putting the blame where it belongs it gets put on some kind of Sox karma thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 At the July 31st trade deadline the Mets were 53-50. They acquired Cespedes, Uribe, Kelly Johnson and Tyler Clippard . Uribe and Johnson were pretty much non factors but Cespedes did so well he was mentioned as a possible MVP candidate . They finished the season 90-72. To be fair a few other Mets also had good 2nd halves of the season and David Wright returning was a major plus. But that just goes to show what I said in my initial post about how things snowball once a team starts to believe in itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 1, 2015 -> 02:28 AM) At the July 31st trade deadline the Mets were 53-50. They acquired Cespedes, Uribe, Kelly Johnson and Tyler Clippard . Uribe and Johnson were pretty much non factors but Cespedes did so well he was mentioned as a possible MVP candidate . They finished the season 90-72. To be fair a few other Mets also had good 2nd halves of the season and David Wright returning was a major plus. But that just goes to show what I said in my initial post about how things snowball once a team starts to believe in itself. D'Arnaud also came back from injury in the second half and had the besp ops of any NL catcher. Plawecki was replaced. Their 3b while Wright was out, Campbell, was terrible. Lagares was another version of Billy Hamilton, but guys like Granderson, Conforto (who started the year at Port St. Lucie in the FSL) and Duda all came on as well. Edited November 1, 2015 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldsox Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 1, 2015 -> 03:04 AM) I don't see why I see this kind of post so often. We are not a snake bit team or have a curse of anything of that nature. It just was an ill advised signing of a player who was too old and could not contribute every day . These kind of "eeyore" posts are kind of silly. Instead of putting the blame where it belongs it gets put on some kind of Sox karma thing. A really good shrink could answer your question and explain the thought process involved and explain why this occurs. Not that I have ever been to a shrink, however. But, sports fans, especially fans of losing teams, seem to gravitate toward these psychological flaws. This would have been a good thread-starter. Edited November 1, 2015 by oldsox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 1, 2015 -> 02:04 AM) I don't see why I see this kind of post so often. We are not a snake bit team or have a curse of anything of that nature. It just was an ill advised signing of a player who was too old and could not contribute every day . These kind of "eeyore" posts are kind of silly. Instead of putting the blame where it belongs it gets put on some kind of Sox karma thing. It's just really lazy whining. And most of it is based on Adam Dunn & Adam LaRoche's struggles. If anything, the takeaway should be that not all players can handle DHing and we should require some experience when filling that spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 1, 2015 -> 07:07 AM) It's just really lazy whining. And most of it is based on Adam Dunn & Adam LaRoche's struggles. If anything, the takeaway should be that not all players can handle DHing and we should require some experience when filling that spot. It's also based on Eaton being the only starting position player or pitcher to come over from the NL in about the last five or six years and not seriously regress. Quentin, although he was injured a lot and didn't have much of a track record at the MLB level, going back seven years. So pretty much any non AZ Dback. Edited November 1, 2015 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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