I don't think you got my point, maybe I didn't make it well. I don't know why you are quoting "one of your big 3 contracts", I never said or implied that in anyway. Though your meaning is certainly true. Projecting the payroll to top out around 130-140 seems reasonable to me. One 35-ish and 2 25-ish deals. I really meant that I would be ok with pursuing Corbin as long as that doesn't preclude Harper/Machado. I should have been clearer about that position.
I still don't love Corbin. But this team needs at least 1 good starter at this point. He is the best of the bunch this year, even if there are some concerns (the guys like Keuchel, Eovaldi and Happ all have concerns, and will likely cost a similar amount - they'll all command at least 15/ season I'd have to guess). If the FO thinks there is more to his year this season that a walk year bump, well, his results are hard to argue with, it seems like his slider became much more of a swing and miss pitch. That development may be sustainable. His last 2 seasons are nearly 400 innings of 3.58 ERA, a 4/1 K/BB and more than a K/IP.
Looking to next year, there are some guys that are attractive, though with their own concerns. Bumgarner (injuries, declining stuff), Sale( fading down the stretch and some injury concerns this year) Cole (last season was an anomaly for him as well) and Porcello (meh). No doubt at least Sale and Bum are in a different class of pitcher than Corbin. But, I have to believe there is a at least a decent chance Sale stays in Boston and Bum stays in SF. Is hoping for one of those guys worth passing on Corbin, well, I'm not sure. All I was saying is that I am starting to warm up to the idea.
There is the trade market as well. Depending on cost, as I advocated for earlier, I would prefer Greinke. If you could get him cheap prospect wise (Steele Walker and Spencer Adams?) and get the Dbacks to pick up about 45 million or so on his contract. Yeah he is a bit older, but he puts up quality lines every season. Paxton would be great, but there are some major durability concerns there, and prospect cost. Kluber, sure. But he will cost you in prospects, at this point, I'd rather spend in cash currency than prospect currency.
Maybe with those considerations, Corbin may be the best alternative. He wouldn't be my first target, but I am starting to understand the pursuit.
And they certainly wouldn't be in the position they were in in 2016. Because they would have Kopech coming back in 20, Cease and Dunning seem imminent for 2020 (not to mention some more wild card guys like Hansen, Mederios, Lambert, Flores etc who could be ready to go beyond AAA by 2020), and a boatload of offensive prospects with which to bolster the lineup or trade for what you need. Those situations are not analogous at all.