As the season is about over thanks to everyone for their participation this year. If you have read parts one and two on our year and 40 man, I want to reemphasize a couple things. Our plate discipline was atrocious. We obviously have Robert and Madrigal on the way but a lot of our other prospects are returning from significant injuries. Our pitching staff needs help. RF and DH were league worst. Aside from Robert, our logjam of outfield prospects didn't distinguish themselves and don't look to provide help next year. By WAR, we are 15-20 WAR from contending and frankly some BABIP metrics could portend some regression for Moncada, Anderson, McCann so you might need a bit more. If Moncada could trim another 40-50 ks that cold offset and Anderson might return some walks as I think he is extra aggressive with a batting title on the line.
Expectation #1 Abreu is brought back. Betting 2 -3 years. Hopefully year 3 is option. I bet it will be more dollars than we like. Hopefully DH's more.
My thoughts. I don't expect us to get Cole. He is a SoCal guy, many teams in the hunt including Angels who I would make the favorite unless the Yankees really want him. He is probably the only free agent I would forfeit the draft pick and its associated pool dollars as I think we need to keep rebuilding. I also don't think we have the prospect depth to make a major acquisition unless it involves taking a bad contract back and using our payroll flexibility as several teams have budget concerns. Unfortunately, I don't see our front office being/allowed to be that creative.
Target #1 Grandal. He just makes so much sense for our team. He has stated he wants to set the market for future players so he isn't coming cheap and a lot of teams will want him. His WAR values are very different on Baseball Reference 1.4-3.3 range last few years and FanGraphs 4.1-5.8. He is very consistent, avg about 15% better bat than league average. Solid glove and great plate discipline walking around 10%. Switch hits and has been used all through the Brewers lineup 1-6. Turned down 4 years 60 million last year. I would start with 3-60 with 24-20-16 payout and add in a 16 million fourth year option. He would probably play everyday for us. McCann would also catch and they both would be fresher and hopefully more productive sharing the load. When not catching, Grandal would DH or play some first. If you got him, the RF addition is able to be lower in the lineup and there are not a lot of great FA options out there.
Target #2 Brett Gardner. Haven't seen him mentioned but hear me out. First, I hope to have a home grown RF in 2021-22. Hopefully one of ours develops from the multitude of options. The Yankees have a bunch of outfielders, some dollar concerns and I could see Gardner leaving. He is 36 but has been amazingly durable at 140ish games per year. Playing mainly center for Yankees with positive defensive metrics(one of few available with a good glove helping young pitchers). The last 7 years has WAR ranges of 2.8-4.9 and currently at 4.1 this year. A professional with playoff experience who would be useful for our youngsters as another mentor. His home/road splits are equal so not a product of Yankee stadium. Another guy with around a 10% walk rate and strikes out less than 20%. Again that plate discipline would help make pitchers work and hitting left handed balances lineup better. Because of Grandal you could hit him lower in the order. I think a two year deal could get him and don't think it would be super expensive12-15 annually?
Plan B Nimmo? Popular pick on board but will cost prospects. Saw a rumor Mets looking for CF. Mets have budget issues. Would/could you take Jed Lowrie at 10 million for one year to lessen your prospect cost? LOL Yolmer and Engel and lesser prospect for Nimmo and Lowrie.
Other Plan B's for Gardner all have warts. Calhoun could be let go especially if Angels get Cole. More strikeouts at about 25% and lower average(Dunn light?) but decent glove and walks 10%. Zobrist 39, terrible spring good OBP switch hits. Dickerson 31 good bat but never played RF and has broken foot. Puig no draft pick issue, right handed, pretty consistent , I guess ok. Jay Bruce? older expensive but wouldn't cost much prospect wise.
Okay 2019 WAR for our RF and DH is -2.3 so Grandal and Gardner good for 7ish so 9WAR improvement!
Fun Fact: Our starting pitchers generated 5.8 WAR. Giolitto has 5.8 WAR. What we have trotted out in the 4/5 slots is truly epic. The rebuild will be over when no one types this is the future: Covey -1.2 ,Detwiler -.5 , Santanna -.3, Banuelos -.4, Santiago -.4, Fulmer -.4 and Despaigne -.3 Totalling -3.5. Cease was -.1 so hopefully if he improves you gain a couple WAR there. Kopech something positive but I wouldn't hand either a automatic job. Could they regain a year of control on Kopech by keeping him down a month out of Chicago cold? I mention this because having reasonable pitchers could gain enough to put you in contention. Our bullpen ranked 6th and Herrera seems to be getting healthy. If he is his normal you could gain 2 WAR. I point all this out because I doubt we sign a big time pitcher to a big time contract. Cole is clearly elite and most of the rest have questions. The history of long term pitching contracts is not great on the team end. I would try to strike quickly before bigger dollar teams who lose out on "name" FA pivot back. A qualifying offer drops my interest and those that have them except Cole may have a slower market. Also starting pitchers are pitching fewer innings all the time. Maybe you should grow and develop pitchers continually and never give the big contract unless they are really special, kind of like running backs in the NFL.
Target #3 Jake Odorizzi RHP, 30. Not a huge innings guy 170ish. 3.5 WAR this year but probably a 2 WAR guy. 2-3 years? 12-14? Kick the tires on Kuechel. Bring back Nova? Only six players beat his 2 WAR on this years team. His totals are what we traded for just bad first half colors perception of his season.
Target #4 Another starter, possible swing guy or a veteran you could deal if our pitchers are healthy/performing at break. Rodon should return around the break though will he start or relieve?
Well there you have it. Not sexy but realistic. Our best chance to have an ace is to develop one. This projects to gain the 15-20 WAR for us to contend. Again, thanks to everyone who took the time to read this and for your involvement throughout the year. Nice to know I don't suffer alone.