First of all, I would like you to tell me how I’m being too optimistic. I’m pretty sure I’m the one describing the environmental rehab issues and costs - this is why the state must be involved.
Secondly, the state spends money on lots of things. Eventually, whether with the White Sox or not, the state is going to have to spend money on this site. No developer anywhere will expect to be on the hook for previous environmental damage, if the state expects them to pay that, the site will never be developed. And importantly, failing to develop this site is spending money - on police, maintenance of the site, no tax revenue from here, and lower land values and fewer businesses in the area. This spot is currently generating zero sales tax. It is a strong benefit to the state to find a tenant here who can develop and anchor this property, and in the current market for office space that will be super tough. Getting this developed now is an investment, one that will pay off if the right business is out there, but which has significant costs and revenue losses every year where it isn’t done.
Third, are you really ready to discuss soil quality issues with a geologist? Yes, they will be trucking in fill to this site because the land level Is too low and they have to ensure stability next to the river. While a problem for a ballpark, this would be a bigger problem for office or apartment development as high rises increase the pressure on the soil, while low intensity development isn’t going to have enough money available to justify rebuilding the site. All The issues with water you mention are also true for any type of development, and they are likely to prevent any other type of developer from salvaging this property for decades just as they have for the last 60. These reasons are why a ballpark on this land makes good sense, and why government support is well justified.
Lets imagine a worst case scenario, they plan this and the infrastructure issues then our worse than expected.
First, that would affect any business going into this spot, so in both cases public money would be required to fix the issues.
Second, how many developers can survive multi year project delays? If I was building an office tower, I have revenue projections to meet - a multi year delay may bankrupt me.
The single worst thing that could happen here for the state is they spend hundreds of millions of dollars on infrastructure and cleanup and the developer loses their funding because of delays, so the state will have spent their money with no benefit. This however is almost impossible for the white Sox, because if site issues delay the project for years, they just play a couple extra seasons on 35th street. From a public perspective, that is amazing insurance for the site - my main tenant and developer will not go bankrupt if there are delays!
There are always details to be worked out. A real estate business has a right to turn a profit on their investment. I will not begrudge the Reinsdorf group turning a substantial profit if they pull this project off. A project that makes them money and makes the city a better place is a true win for everyone. Hell put a hotel there and I will stay in it. But it also should be a good deal for the city - in the long run the benefits they get in taxes and development should be able to win out, on the 20 or 30 year horizon. That’s how much money the city should put in - this is an investment to grow the city and its tax base long term. If Reinsdorf can pull that off, then he has done something great for the city while also making money, and my version of capitalism likes that type of partnership.