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Liam TJS


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  • 21:$11M, 22:$13M, 23:$14M, 24:$15M club option ($15M buyout)
  • 2024 option is guaranteed with trade
  • if club declines 2024 option, $15M buyout is paid in 10 annual installments of $1.5M, 2024-33

"You can't spend $1 in FA if you've already spent $2 on Benintendi and Hendriks"

Edited by caulfield12
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1 hour ago, scotty22hotty said:

pay him his 15M next year just to be an ambassador for the team. people like liam don't come around that often.

Love this. Helps heal this absolute kicked dog feeling ive had for hours. Man. Take the optimism on this board in 2021 to now. Im a broken man and liam was probably my favorite white sox player. 

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3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Just to point this out one more time, only 1 team in baseball does not recognize that 12 to 14 months is a very aggressive return schedule from TJS. The good news is that 14 months from now should be the end of the 2024 season, so the odds of them trying to rush him back are low. 

12-14 months is not very aggressive. It's pretty typical. He should be throwing by 9-10 months. retrieve.pdf

Here is a good systematic review. They say the typical range is 6.5 to 16 months. The 6.5 is when they use an internal augmentation device. Not sure they would do that in this case though. 

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8 minutes ago, ptatc said:

12-14 months is not very aggressive. It's pretty typical. He should be throwing by 9-10 months. retrieve.pdf

Here is a good systematic review. They say the typical range is 6.5 to 16 months. The 6.5 is when they use an internal augmentation device. Not sure they would do that in this case though. 

It is super aggressive in terms of being back in the big leagues. Find me a single pitcher who had TJS in the last 5 seasons who came back in 14 months and pitched more than 10 innings without getting hurt again. 

The closest I came up with was Glasnow who made 2 starts down the stretch last year before the Rays were eliminated. He then started this year on the IL. Bryan Abreu was the last pitcher I found who successfully kept that timeline and I believe that was 2019, literally everyone since who came back that quick got hurt or stank.

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2 hours ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

I hate this organization as much as anyone right now…but I don’t see anyone is to blame for this. Liam’s elbow has been a ticking time bomb for a while.

Plus it might have been Liam's idea to go out there and pitch.  Maybe it wasn't a good idea whoever 's idea it was with a body weakened by cancer. One side or the other just should've said no. Good luck Liam.Enjoy your post surgery life  not on the Sox.

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4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It is super aggressive in terms of being back in the big leagues. Find me a single pitcher who had TJS in the last 5 seasons who came back in 14 months and pitched more than 10 innings without getting hurt again. 

The closest I came up with was Glasnow who made 2 starts down the stretch last year before the Rays were eliminated. He then started this year on the IL. Bryan Abreu was the last pitcher I found who successfully kept that timeline and I believe that was 2019, literally everyone since who came back that quick got hurt or stank.

How long was the kid the Sox got for Burger (Eder) out ?

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3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

It's also $1.5 million that isn't adjusted for inflation, so the total real amount of money paid to Hendriks will be less, and it will be an even lower fraction of team revenue which is going up much faster than inflation.

Not to mention if Jerry dies before 97, someone else is footing at least a part of the bill.

Edited by South Side Hit Men
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12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It is super aggressive in terms of being back in the big leagues. Find me a single pitcher who had TJS in the last 5 seasons who came back in 14 months and pitched more than 10 innings without getting hurt again. 

The closest I came up with was Glasnow who made 2 starts down the stretch last year before the Rays were eliminated. He then started this year on the IL. Bryan Abreu was the last pitcher I found who successfully kept that timeline and I believe that was 2019, literally everyone since who came back that quick got hurt or stank.

Here's one where the average return for MLB pitchers is just under 16 months for 36 pitchers. 

Really good a analysis of pitch movement and spin rates post surgery too. 

fury-et-al-2021-return-to-performance-after-ulnar-collateral-ligament-reconstruction-in-major-league-baseball-pitchers.pdf

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13 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Here's one where the average return for MLB pitchers is just under 16 months for 36 pitchers. 

Really good a analysis of pitch movement and spin rates post surgery too. 

fury-et-al-2021-return-to-performance-after-ulnar-collateral-ligament-reconstruction-in-major-league-baseball-pitchers.pdf 414.08 kB · 1 download

It most certainly does not say 16 months. It gives an average return time of 17.36 months and notes that 40% of pitchers never significantly came back at that time.

Quote

At a mean of 521 days, 36 MLB pitchers (57.1%) returned to the MLB after undergoing UCLR, while 27 (42.9%) failed to return.

That’s a big difference from 12 to 14. I think 17.5 stands up as an average after the period of this survey.

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29 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

How long was the kid the Sox got for Burger (Eder) out ?

He has the surgery in September of ‘21 and missed the entire 2022 season. He would have been ready to start the 2023 season but was delayed by a broken foot. He did not throw a competitive pitch for 21 months. Had he started spring training of this year it would have been about 19.

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10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It most certainly does not say 16 months. It gives an average return time of 17.36 months and notes that 40% of pitchers never significantly came back at that time.

That’s a big difference from 12 to 14. I think 17.5 stands up as an average after the period of this survey.

A couple of months isn't that much for rehab especially considering it will be skewed for those who have it towards the end of a season and essentially miss nearly two years. 

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

He has the surgery in September of ‘21 and missed the entire 2022 season. He would have been ready to start the 2023 season but was delayed by a broken foot. He did not throw a competitive pitch for 21 months. Had he started spring training of this year it would have been about 19.

This is a good example of how the data can be skewed due to a season timeframe. He was ready long before 19 months. But according to the data he didn't return to the MLB until then. 

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2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This is a good example of how the data can be skewed due to a season timeframe. He was ready long before 19 months. But according to the data he didn't return to the MLB until then. 

But worth noting it’s now 23 months later and his velocity is still down.

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17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But worth noting it’s now 23 months later and his velocity is still down.

That does happen. The latest stats I've seen is that 85% return to prior level of performance. We're getting better with them using PRP and Stem cells and now the internal augmentation. However, not everyone fully returns regardless of what we do. 

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Now that the science guys chimed in the language guy has a turn. 

Return to what?

Return to the (a) team? Perhaps to start the early stages of rehab. 

Return to hang up a couple shirts in a AAA locker room?

Return to attempting to get outs against MLB hitters? 

This could be simply a misunderstanding of the language being used.

 

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More than anything, I feel bad for Liam.  He has been pitching with a partial tear for quite a while, so TJS is not that surprising.  Maybe the cancer, recovery, and quick return to the mound pushed the injury to where he needed surgery.  No one, except Liam, knew if he was ready to return when he did.  We don't know if he pushed to pitch when he did or of the Sox pushed him.  I expect is was more the former.

Regardless, Liam is a one of a kind person, and I am very happy he played for my favorite team.  Chances are he threw his last pitch as a Sox.  However, maybe the Sox bring him back in '25.  Who knows.  As far '24, the smart business decision is to decline the option and pay out the $15M over 10 years.  But, Liam is a special person, and I could see the Sox just paying him the $15M next year.

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