MLB Trade Rumors - Chicago White Sox Offseason Outlook - by Tim Dierkes

[South Side Hit Men]

Solid take in terms of current strengths and weaknesses and what it will take for things to improve substantially in 2024.

'https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/offseason-outlook-chicago-white-sox-13.html

Noted external 2024 player options:

• C: Victor Caratini or Tom Murphy.
• 2B: Adam Frazier, Jonathan India, Gleyber Torres, Brandon Drury, or Whit Merrifield (based on a team "oddly obsessed with the Royals").
• SS If Anderson Option Declined: Amed Rosario.
• 3B If Moncada Moved: Gio Urshela, Jeimer Candelario or possible Bryan Ramos promotion.
• RF: Teoscar Hernandez or bargain bin selections Hunter Renfroe or Jason Heyward as upgrades over current options.
• SP Potentially out of price range: Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Shota Imanaga.
• SP Possibilities: Seth Lugo, Kenta Maeda, Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen.
• SP Bounceback cases: Frankie Montas, Kyle Gibson, Jack Flaherty, James Paxton, Luis Severino.
• RP: Reynaldo Lopez, Robert Stephenson, Joe Jimenez, Jordan Hicks.

Clevinger

Quote

Clevinger, 33 in December, will likely seek a two-year deal after posting a 3.77 ERA in 24 starts.  Clevinger’s subpar strikeout and groundball rates don’t support that ERA, but it’s possible the White Sox bring him back.  The White Sox should add at least three credible starters this winter if they’re looking to contend in 2024.

Conclusion

Quote

At the least, a competent 2024 White Sox team would seem to need a catcher, second baseman, right fielder, three starting pitchers, and multiple relievers.  They’d need Robert to stay healthy again and most of the other holdovers to improve upon 2023.  As daunting as that sounds, the White Sox could reasonably add around $75MM in 2024 money without increasing their payroll.  If Getz is given that level of spending power, he’ll at least have the chance to remake the team in his image over the winter.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Yeah, this is not going to be a good team next year haha 

[Tnetennba]

[kitekrazy]

Those articles are best for a fantasy league.

[Snopek]

12 minutes ago, kitekrazy said:

Those articles are best for a fantasy league.

What do you mean by this?

[T R U]

In what world does 75 million get you a starting catcher, second baseman, right fielder, three starting pitchers, and multiple bullpen arms?!?

[Lip Man 1]

54 minutes ago, T R U said:

In what world does 75 million get you a starting catcher, second baseman, right fielder, three starting pitchers, and multiple bullpen arms?!?

The dumpster diving world which what the Sox generally do. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, T R U said:

In what world does 75 million get you a starting catcher, second baseman, right fielder, three starting pitchers, and multiple bullpen arms?!?

Especially when Salvy eats up 27% of that amount.

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, T R U said:

In what world does 75 million get you a starting catcher, second baseman, right fielder, three starting pitchers, and multiple bullpen arms?!?

The players laid out in the article noted above would fit in this budget. Below isn't necessarily my or anyone's Dream Team, just a somewhat possible plan if the Sox spent slightly over $75M ($81.4M based on the players and Spotrac estimates) on external acquisitions on players identified in the article, and a likely upgrade over what the Sox finished with in 2023.

(2023 bWAR Player (7/1/24 Age) $ Salary (estimate in italics - from spotrac if available) ^ - LH Hitter/Pitcher # - Switch Hitter

13 Position Players ($105.8M; $28.2M on new three new starters)

• C: 0.7 Victor Caratini # (30) $3.1M 
• 1B: 1.0 Andrew Vaughn (26) $1.5M
• 2B: 0.8 Whit Merrifield (35) $8.4M
• 3B: 0.6 Yoan Moncada # (29) $24.8M
• SS: -2.0 Tim Anderson (31) $14.0M
• RF: 2.1 Teoscar Hernandez (31) $16.7M
• CF: 5.1 Luis Robert Junior (26) $12.5M
• LF: 0.2 Andrew Benintendi ^ (29) $17.1M
• DH: 0.3 Eloy Jimenez (27) $13.8M
• Reserves:
  • C 0.0 Carlos Perez (27) $0.8M
  • INF 0.0 Jose Rodriguez (23) $0.8M
  • INF/OF 0.1 Zack Remillard (30) $0.8M
  • OF Trayce Thompson (33) $1.5M

14 Pitchers ($52.2M Rotation; $22.1M Bullpen; $41.1M on three new starters and $12.1M on three new relievers plus a few returning FAs)

• Rotation
  • 3.5 Eduardo Rodriguez ^ (31) $20.1M
  • 2.4 Dylan Cease (28) $8.1M
  • 1.8 Seth Lugo (34) $9.9M
  • 0.7 Michael Kopech (28) $3.0M
  • 0.7 Jack Flaherty (28) $11.1M

• Bullpen + Swing: 
  • 2.1 Reynaldo Lopez (30) $6.2M
  • 1.3 Gregory Santos (24) $0.8M
  • 1.1 Robert Stephenson (31) $2.5M
  • 1.0 Touki Toussaint (28) $0.8M
  • 0.8 Jordan Hicks (27) $3.4M
  • 0.8 Tanner Banks ^ (32) $0.8M
  • 0.6 Bryan Shaw (35) $1.0M
  • 0.2 Garrett Crochet ^ (25) $1.1M
  • -1.0 Aaron Bummer ^ (30) $5.5M

2024 Buyouts ($11.0M)

• $5.5M Leury Garcia
• $4.0M Mike Clevinger
• $1.5M Liam Hendriks (Year 1 of 10)

Total Payroll: $105.8M + $52.2M + $22.1M + $11.0M = $191.1M, or $10.0M more than 2023 Opening Day. The main two barriers are will Jerry Reinsdorf authorize this assuming he "wants to get better as fast as we possibly can", and can Getz make enough changes to have a credible pitch to sign decent players without massive overpays. I purposely excluded players from the top several teams in the playoffs, assuming they would prefer to stay or explore other teams over the White Sox.

Also, this is not a "fantasy league" article, the purpose of which is noted below.

Quote

To be frank, it’s not clear what specific skills or successes made Getz qualified to be the GM of the White Sox in Reinsdorf’s eyes.  Negatives include the Omar Vizquel-Wes Helms situation, and a generally poor record of White Sox minor leaguers meeting or exceeding expectations. 

From ownership to GM to manager, there is little to inspire confidence in the quick White Sox resurgence of which Reinsdorf spoke.  However, we are mainly here to discuss how Getz might address the team’s many shortcomings in his first offseason.  Reinsdorf said, “We want to get better as fast as we possibly can,” so we’ll take him at his word even though the Sox would need a lot to compete in 2024.  This post also takes under consideration that the White Sox have never paid the competitive balance tax, have never committed more than $75MM to a player, and have never paid a player $20MM per year.

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by South Side Hit Men

[kitekrazy]

2 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

The dumpster diving world which what the Sox generally do. 

That is one of the things they do well in compared to drafting and trading.

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

The players laid out in the article noted above would fit in this budget. Below isn't necessarily my or anyone's Dream Team, just a somewhat possible plan if the Sox spent slightly over $75M ($81.4M based on the players and Spotrac estimates) on external acquisitions on players identified in the article, and a likely upgrade over what the Sox finished with in 2023.

(2023 bWAR Player (7/1/24 Age) $ Salary (estimate in italics - from spotrac if available) ^ - LH Hitter/Pitcher # - Switch Hitter

13 Position Players ($105.8M; $28.2M on new three new starters)

• 😄 0.7 Victor Caratini # (30) $3.1M 
• 1B: 1.0 Andrew Vaughn (26) $1.5M
• 2B: 0.8 Whit Merrifield (35) $8.4M
• 3B: 0.6 Yoan Moncada # (29) $24.8M
• SS: -2.0 Tim Anderson (31) $14.0M
• RF: 2.1 Teoscar Hernandez (31) $16.7M
• CF: 5.1 Luis Robert Junior (26) $12.5M
• LF: 0.2 Andrew Benintendi ^ (29) $17.1M
• DH: 0.3 Eloy Jimenez (27) $13.8M
• Reserves:
  • C 0.0 Carlos Perez (27) $0.8M
  • INF 0.0 Jose Rodriguez (23) $0.8M
  • INF/OF 0.1 Zack Remillard (30) $0.8M
  • OF Trayce Thompson (33) $1.5M

14 Pitchers ($52.2M Rotation; $22.1M Bullpen; $41.1M on three new starters and $12.1M on three new relievers plus a few returning FAs)

• Rotation
  • 3.5 Eduardo Rodriguez ^ (31) $20.1M
  • 2.4 Dylan Cease (28) $8.1M
  • 1.8 Seth Lugo (34) $9.9M
  • 0.7 Michael Kopech (28) $3.0M
  • 0.7 Jack Flaherty (28) $11.1M

• Bullpen + Swing: 
  • 2.1 Reynaldo Lopez (30) $6.2M
  • 1.3 Gregory Santos (24) $0.8M
  • 1.1 Robert Stephenson (31) $2.5M
  • 1.0 Touki Toussaint (28) $0.8M
  • 0.8 Jordan Hicks (27) $3.4M
  • 0.8 Tanner Banks ^ (32) $0.8M
  • 0.6 Bryan Shaw (35) $1.0M
  • 0.2 Garrett Crochet ^ (25) $1.1M
  • -1.0 Aaron Bummer ^ (30) $5.5M

2024 Buyouts ($11.0M)

• $5.5M Leury Garcia
• $4.0M Mike Clevinger
• $1.5M Liam Hendriks (Year 1 of 10)

Total Payroll: $105.8M + $52.2M + $22.1M + $11.0M = $191.1M, or $10.0M more than 2023 Opening Day. The main two barriers are will Jerry Reinsdorf authorize this assuming he "wants to get better as fast as we possibly can", and can Getz make enough changes to have a credible pitch to sign decent players without massive overpays. I purposely excluded players from the top several teams in the playoffs, assuming they would prefer to stay or explore other teams over the White Sox.

Also, this is not a "fantasy league" article, the purpose of which is noted below.

 

You have the worst bench in the majors and Merrifield/Frazier types always seem to go the wrong way for the Sox.

I just don't think there's any way in hell the Sox add back on that much payroll absolutely knowing they will be seeing another 25-30% drop off in season tickets and will suffer more pretty much guaranteed losses (especially with Grifol back too).

Especially a "headline" move of Eddie Rodriguez that wouldn't move the most die hard of Sox fans to buy back into at least a partial ticket package.

 

 

Of course, they might end up trading or dumping Anderson...but still stuck with Moncada Jimenez Benintendi AND the team will be even more miserable based on playing the current youth in the minor league cupboard.

But we will be lucky to get half that new spending IMO and would definitely take the "under" bet.

Edited October 5, 2023 by caulfield12

[South Side Hit Men]

27 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You have the worst bench in the majors and Merrifield/Frazier types always seem to go the wrong way for the Sox.

I just don't think there's any way in hell the Sox add back on that much payroll absolutely knowing they will be seeing another 25-30% drop off in season tickets and will suffer more pretty much guaranteed losses (especially with Grifol back too).

Especially a "headline" move of Eddie Rodriguez that wouldn't move the most die hard of Sox fans to buy back into at least a partial ticket package.

Of course, they might end up trading or dumping Anderson...but still stuck with Moncada Jimenez Benintendi AND the team will be even more miserable based on playing the current youth in the minor league cupboard.

But we will be lucky to get half that new spending IMO and would definitely take the "under" bet.

"I" don't have anything, just went via the minimum parameters of the article and quote I responded to. I believe that is a 75-83 win team, mediocre but a big step up from August/September. 

I only added Merrifield because of the article, would use youth or fill cheaply ($7.5M saved). I really don't think Teoscar or Eduardo Rodriguez would come here except for a massive overpay, same as how Hahn landed Keuchel and Grandal, so I would pass beyond the stated AAVs for 2-3 years tops. They don't need any FAs beyond low end AAV types until they are actually ready to contend, perhaps in 2026 or 2027.

Just keep acquiring younger players in rule 5/waiver/trades and target 2026/2027. Don't DFA anyone. Try trading Yoan, Tim, Eloy, perhaps a team like the Dodgers would eat Yoan's contract or most of it if they also include Cease and/or another player or two they want. I don't think even the Dodgers would eat the Benintendi deal unless Robert or Montgomery were involved.

Bring in solid instructors, especially one for catchers, and try to make something out of one or both of the trade deadline acquisitions. I will consider a legitimate FA plan once the Sox exercise or decline options, and the FA market is established in early November.

[caulfield12]

26 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

"I" don't have anything, just went via the minimum parameters of the article and quote I responded to. I believe that is a 75-83 win team, mediocre but a big step up from August/September. 

I only added Merrifield because of the article, would use youth or fill cheaply ($7.5M saved). I really don't think Teoscar or Eduardo Rodriguez would come here except for a massive overpay, same as how Hahn landed Keuchel and Grandal, so I would pass beyond the stated AAVs for 2-3 years tops. They don't need any FAs beyond low end AAV types until they are actually ready to contend, perhaps in 2026 or 2027.

Just keep acquiring younger players in rule 5/waiver/trades and target 2026/2027. Don't DFA anyone. Try trading Yoan, Tim, Eloy, perhaps a team like the Dodgers would eat Yoan's contract or most of it if they also include Cease and/or another player or two they want. I don't think even the Dodgers would eat the Benintendi deal unless Robert or Montgomery were involved.

Bring in solid instructors, especially one for catchers, and try to make something out of one or both of the trade deadline acquisitions. I will consider a legitimate FA plan once the Sox exercise or decline options, and the FA market is established in early November.

Trading Cease for Tier B/C lottery tickets ostensibly to get rid of an undesirable Sox contract...the first time we see the opposite of that (pure best avail talent acquisition) perhaps we can start to be a bit more optimistic.

 

And they need a better backup plan than Shaw/Banks for closer...should approach ST as if Santos will be out the entire season just in case.

Edited October 5, 2023 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

15 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

The players laid out in the article noted above would fit in this budget. Below isn't necessarily my or anyone's Dream Team, just a somewhat possible plan if the Sox spent slightly over $75M ($81.4M based on the players and Spotrac estimates) on external acquisitions on players identified in the article, and a likely upgrade over what the Sox finished with in 2023.

(2023 bWAR Player (7/1/24 Age) $ Salary (estimate in italics - from spotrac if available) ^ - LH Hitter/Pitcher # - Switch Hitter

13 Position Players ($105.8M; $28.2M on new three new starters)

• 😄 0.7 Victor Caratini # (30) $3.1M 
• 1B: 1.0 Andrew Vaughn (26) $1.5M
• 2B: 0.8 Whit Merrifield (35) $8.4M
• 3B: 0.6 Yoan Moncada # (29) $24.8M
• SS: -2.0 Tim Anderson (31) $14.0M
• RF: 2.1 Teoscar Hernandez (31) $16.7M
• CF: 5.1 Luis Robert Junior (26) $12.5M
• LF: 0.2 Andrew Benintendi ^ (29) $17.1M
• DH: 0.3 Eloy Jimenez (27) $13.8M
• Reserves:
  • C 0.0 Carlos Perez (27) $0.8M
  • INF 0.0 Jose Rodriguez (23) $0.8M
  • INF/OF 0.1 Zack Remillard (30) $0.8M
  • OF Trayce Thompson (33) $1.5M

14 Pitchers ($52.2M Rotation; $22.1M Bullpen; $41.1M on three new starters and $12.1M on three new relievers plus a few returning FAs)

• Rotation
  • 3.5 Eduardo Rodriguez ^ (31) $20.1M
  • 2.4 Dylan Cease (28) $8.1M
  • 1.8 Seth Lugo (34) $9.9M
  • 0.7 Michael Kopech (28) $3.0M
  • 0.7 Jack Flaherty (28) $11.1M

• Bullpen + Swing: 
  • 2.1 Reynaldo Lopez (30) $6.2M
  • 1.3 Gregory Santos (24) $0.8M
  • 1.1 Robert Stephenson (31) $2.5M
  • 1.0 Touki Toussaint (28) $0.8M
  • 0.8 Jordan Hicks (27) $3.4M
  • 0.8 Tanner Banks ^ (32) $0.8M
  • 0.6 Bryan Shaw (35) $1.0M
  • 0.2 Garrett Crochet ^ (25) $1.1M
  • -1.0 Aaron Bummer ^ (30) $5.5M

2024 Buyouts ($11.0M)

• $5.5M Leury Garcia
• $4.0M Mike Clevinger
• $1.5M Liam Hendriks (Year 1 of 10)

Total Payroll: $105.8M + $52.2M + $22.1M + $11.0M = $191.1M, or $10.0M more than 2023 Opening Day. The main two barriers are will Jerry Reinsdorf authorize this assuming he "wants to get better as fast as we possibly can", and can Getz make enough changes to have a credible pitch to sign decent players without massive overpays. I purposely excluded players from the top several teams in the playoffs, assuming they would prefer to stay or explore other teams over the White Sox.

Also, this is not a "fantasy league" article, the purpose of which is noted below.

 

I Buy out TA. If he can get $14M or a 3 year contract @$45M+ let him try. Forget about Merrifield and put in Lenyn Sosa either at SS or 2B that saves you a lot, as would trading away Eloy . If Soler doesn't resign with Marlins , sign him for some power at DH. Try your hand at some other LH hitters if anyone bites on Eloy. If you sign 1 big position player make it Bellinger. He should be an interesting follow this off season. Michael A .Taylor isn't a bad option  although his OBP sucks. Nice speed and defense, decent pop.

I'm not even going to try on SP and RP accept to say if you open up some payroll space and dependent on how much JR decides he's going to spend you could sign one of the better starting pitches in some fantasy scenario that involves signing with an organization like the White Sox.

I still have to laugh looking at Andrew Benintendi. Hell Duvall although older would have given you more than Benintendi had you just offered him 2 years. He can't stay healthy but when he's on the field he produces. He's available again .

[DirtySox]

My White Sox Outlook is that I will be watching the minor league affiliates and the Orioles next season.

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, DirtySox said:

My White Sox Outlook is that I will be watching the minor league affiliates and the Orioles next season.

Anyone but the White Sox. 

[caulfield12]

Bellinger to the Sox seems more unlikely than Harper.

Soler has the Royals connection.  Ofc, he's probably due for a down season if he signs here.

[Harry Chappas]

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Bellinger to the Sox seems more unlikely than Harper.

Soler has the Royals connection.  Ofc, he's probably due for a down season if he signs here.

Soler will injure himself standing up after signing the deal. 

[RG23SoxFan]

1 hour ago, Harry Chappas said:

Soler will injure himself standing up after signing the deal. 

Well if Eloy is dealt someone needs to take his place.

[White Sox Park]

I will be watching next year, knowing that they are not going to be much better than this year, but, now that i'm over the rebuild collapse, I won't be so upset, and it will just be another long season . i've been through some really bad seasons before, and next year, and probably years to come, will just be more of that.

[A-Train to 35th]

Maybe Michael Conforto who many people wanted can decline his 18M player option. Then again after posting a 0.07 War, to go with a .239 BA, 15 homers, and 58 RBI he'll most likely stay put.  Glad we took a pass on those numbers for 18 mil.

Never thought I say this but for 735,000 and almost 100 less at bats, I'll take Gavin Sheets numbers before I'd pay Conforto 18 mil.

Edited October 6, 2023 by A-Train to 35th
add

[Chicago White Sox]

21 hours ago, A-Train to 35th said:

Maybe Michael Conforto who many people wanted can decline his 18M player option. Then again after posting a 0.07 War, to go with a .239 BA, 15 homers, and 58 RBI he'll most likely stay put.  Glad we took a pass on those numbers for 18 mil.

Never thought I say this but for 735,000 and almost 100 less at bats, I'll take Gavin Sheets numbers before I'd pay Conforto 18 mil.

You realize by taking a “pass” on Conforto, we are now stuck with an ever worse player on a 4/$64M deal.  I wish an $18M option was the only headwind left.

[Chicago White Sox]

I can’t stomach to read the article, but the one thing Chris must acknowledge when he goes into this offseason is there is no path to winning in 2024.  None whatsoever.  That point is key because it should impact what he does in free agency and the trade market.

All potential moves must take 2025 & 2026 into consideration.  Don’t trade any prospects for win-now pieces.  Don’t go out and sign a C tier free agent to the largest contract in franchise history.  When adding stop-gap/transitional pieces, focus on guys that have a profile that might warrant something at the deadline if they actually pan out.  Try to avoid multi-year commitments as much as you can and push for team options where possible.

Most importantly are two specific things:

1. Seriously listen on a Cease trade this off-season.  No reason to keep him around for what will still be a long shot chance of competing in 2025.  He needs to be moved between now and the next deadline.  If the offers are there in the winter, don’t hold and risk an injury.
2. Do not rush the key prospects.  The farm is still in bad shape despite an infusion of talent at the deadline and we need to take our time with these kids.  Approach the off-season as if the minors will be providing little help in 2024 and stick to that plan until one of these kids forces the issue.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You realize by taking a “pass” on Conforto, we are now stuck with an ever worse player on a 4/$64M deal.  I wish an $18M option was the only headwind left.

Agreed.

[joejoesox]

team is gonna be s%*# for the next couple years, they don't deserve daily progress reports