Robert’s Future

[CBJ03]

I’m interested in what everyone thinks about what would or should be done with Robert. I feel as though he is constantly treated as though he has to be gone and there’s absolutely no chance he’s on the next competitive White Sox team so all talk about his future is viewed through that lens. 
 

What if Robert who is only 27 has started to break out of the bad habits he formed at the plate the last few years playing for absolute dog crap teams where he was the only threat in the lineup? What if he returns to the Robert of two years ago? What if he has a better season than that? 
 

Is he then worth holding on to for his entire contact? At some point you need to start wining at the Major League level. The kids that have come up need to learn how to win. You have got to get out of the losing culture that has surrounded this club.  There’s no doubt in my mind Robert will help you do that over the next two years. Especially considering you have no one in the minors who is even remotely ready to be an every day CFer. 
 

If you keep him and he’s outstanding and you have to pay a 28 year old premium money, who’s to say in two years Ishbia isn’t the owner of this team and is willing to resign him? 

I know this is kinda of a topic I’m sure most people already have a firm opinion on, but I like it as a thought exercise. 

[pcq]

They might as well keep him to try and  compete. 

[Snopek]

I like that he’s looked much better, but I have no interest in betting on him to stay healthy and productive moving forward.

Not after getting burned by that sort of thinking with the last failed rebuild.

And for the record, it bums me out that I feel this way about, but it is what it is.

[NWsideSoxfan]

7 minutes ago, Snopek said:

I like that he’s looked much better, but I have no interest in betting on him to stay healthy and productive moving forward.

Not after getting burned by that sort of thinking with the last failed rebuild.

And for the record, it bums me out that I feel this way about, but it is what it is.

Agreed, I just don’t trust that he will stay healthy. The group from the last rebuild are not missed and he probably won’t be either.  He might be a super star but his inconsistency is too much to gamble on.

[CBJ03]

12 minutes ago, NWsideSoxfan said:

Agreed, I just don’t trust that he will stay healthy. The group from the last rebuild are not missed and he probably won’t be either.  He might be a super star but his inconsistency is too much to gamble on.

But that’s kind of feeds into my questions? What are you losing by gambling on him for two years? A gamble in a trade? Like if he’s just ok for the next two years and his contract expires how does that hurt you really? Hes still a valuable player even if he’s nothing more then he is right now again. 

[WestEddy]

4 minutes ago, CBJ03 said:

But that’s kind of feeds into my questions? What are you losing by gambling on him for two years? A gamble in a trade? Like if he’s just ok for the next two years and his contract expires how does that hurt you really? Hes still a valuable player even if he’s nothing more then he is right now again. 

What you gain is having CF filled for most of 2 seasons (fingers crossed), and if he returns to form, slapping a QO on him, which he'll turn down, and getting an extra draft pick in the 2028 draft (if that rule isn't tossed in the negotiations. 

Compare that to 2 team top ten prospects Robert might bring back. 

You're taking a big gamble that Robert stays healthy. What do you lose? If he gets injured and misses 60 games, then puts up this sub-.600 OPS stretches, you get nothing. 

If the Sox run most of this current group back next year, at best, they're a 70+ win team. Depending on how guys develop and if they delve into free-agency after there's a new players' agreement, they might just be looking at being a .500 team in 2027, Robert's last year. He didn't switch to Scott Boras just to accept a qualifying offer for 2028. 

[Tony]

29 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

What you gain is having CF filled for most of 2 seasons (fingers crossed), and if he returns to form, slapping a QO on him, which he'll turn down, and getting an extra draft pick in the 2028 draft (if that rule isn't tossed in the negotiations. 

Compare that to 2 team top ten prospects Robert might bring back. 

You're taking a big gamble that Robert stays healthy. What do you lose? If he gets injured and misses 60 games, then puts up this sub-.600 OPS stretches, you get nothing. 

If the Sox run most of this current group back next year, at best, they're a 70+ win team. Depending on how guys develop and if they delve into free-agency after there's a new players' agreement, they might just be looking at being a .500 team in 2027, Robert's last year. He didn't switch to Scott Boras just to accept a qualifying offer for 2028. 

Wait, when are they getting this for Robert????

[Tony]

Simply depends on the market. If someone wants to overpay, then trade him. 

But they don't have anyone in this organization knocking down the door to take over CF. It's just money, they have plenty of it...does very little harm for him to stay around

[WestEddy]

32 minutes ago, Tony said:

Wait, when are they getting this for Robert????

Isn't that what was on the table from the Reds? I mean, if Robert plays great defense, and continues to hit the rest of the year, maybe they're trading him. 

[fathom]

10 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Isn't that what was on the table from the Reds? I mean, if Robert plays great defense, and continues to hit the rest of the year, maybe they're trading him. 

Sox were gonna have to add a ton of money, and the rumor is the Sox were asking for way too much besides Arroyo

[Chisoxfn]

His defense has been outstanding and since the break he just looks different at the plate. Still work to do but he has looked like a totally different player the past 8 weeks! 

[nrockway]

Robert is only expendable if there is someone who can replace his defense and still kind of swing a bat. If the Sox are going to compete before 2030, you don't just jettison a guy because he didn't live up to his superstar potential but is still useful. Not sure there's anyone like that in the system except maybe the 19-year-old Alcala or 18-year-old Christian Gonzalez, but and who knows what they'll actually do when they gets older and move up levels. Jacob Burke, DJ Gladney, Dru Baker are not those guys. Need to have someone like Ceddane Rafaela who I would've liked to see in the Crochet return and was perhaps available. Or Brenton Doyle who almost certainly isn't available but might be after Robert's contract is up. Robert at his worst is still very useful relative to other 'defensive' CFs. Compare to Victor Scott or Jacob Young. If Robert is hitting at his best, he's one of the best players in the game. I mean, I'd rather 'overpay' for Robert than have one of Cedric Mullins, Kyle Isbel, Trent Grisham, Alek Thomas (known Mt. Carmel bully) on a 'fair' contract. I don't think you can expect the first three to continue to hit over the life of a free agent contract. They're also not as good defensively as Luis. Daulton Varsho is about the only guy I can think of that might be a good, and realistic, free agent signing to replace Robert's production.

Let's say Robert is healthy next two years and OPSs at like .710 for 2.5 WAR per season...what contract does he deserve? Probably one the Sox can pay and aren't likely to replace with internal candidates or a free agent. They'd have to make a trade (I think the aforementioned Doyle or Rafaela would be great acquisitions if possible). He's a .769 OPS hitter across 2300 PAs+ so he's probably more like that realistically. With his GG defense, there aren't many better options in the MLB. Jung-Hoo Lee will make more money than Robert next season and is pretty much the same age, has similar injury concerns and isn't clearly a more valuable hitter. 

See what Robert does next year and maybe he's due a reasonable extension. Injuries I think are still the biggest factor though. Still, it would be a shame if the current rookies continue to perform and improve, Braden and the other prospects come up and show out, and suddenly there's a massive hole in CF because Robert is no longer on the team. We've basically past the point of trading for prospects, at some point you have to stop planning for the future and plan for the now. I say it's 2027.

Maybe the caveat is you don't think CF/up the middle defense is as important as I do, but still, who is at least a 'good enough' defender to play center field and will be available for the Sox to sign or trade for? Who is an internal option? Braden is a RF, Wolkow could maybe stick there and could be in MLB by 2027, but his bat is far from a sure thing. The rest of the OF prospects aren't going to see MLB any time soon and are also far from sure things.

tl;dr: keep Robert unless there's actually a better player available. Maybe it's Varsho who is a unrestricted free agent in 2027. Maybe then you decline Robert's second team option if he really proves to be a sub-.700 OPS hitter. So what if you have to pay him like Benintendi or a little more. Small price to pay for production at an important position. He could also hit .850 OPS and be a 5 WAR player and we'd be kicking ourselves if he wasn't on the team.

Edited August 25 by nrockway

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, nrockway said:

Robert is only expendable if there is someone who can replace his defense and still kind of swing a bat. If the Sox are going to compete before 2030, you don't just jettison a guy because he didn't live up to his superstar potential but is still useful. Not sure there's anyone like that in the system except maybe the 19-year-old Alcala or 18-year-old Christian Gonzalez, but and who knows what they'll actually do when they gets older and move up levels. Jacob Burke, DJ Gladney, Dru Baker are not those guys. Need to have someone like Ceddane Rafaela who I would've liked to see in the Crochet return and was perhaps available. Or Brenton Doyle who almost certainly isn't available but might be after Robert's contract is up. Robert at his worst is still very useful relative to other 'defensive' CFs. Compare to Victor Scott or Jacob Young. If Robert is hitting at his best, he's one of the best players in the game. I mean, I'd rather 'overpay' for Robert than have one of Cedric Mullins, Kyle Isbel, Trent Grisham, Alek Thomas (known Mt. Carmel bully) on a 'fair' contract. I don't think you can expect the first three to continue to hit over the life of a free agent contract. They're also not as good defensively as Luis. Daulton Varsho is about the only guy I can think of that might be a good, and realistic, free agent signing to replace Robert's production.

Let's say Robert is healthy next two years and OPSs at like .710 for 2.5 WAR per season...what contract does he deserve? Probably one the Sox can pay and aren't likely to replace with internal candidates or a free agent. They'd have to make a trade (I think the aforementioned Doyle or Rafaela would be great acquisitions if possible). He's a .769 OPS hitter across 2300 PAs+ so he's probably more like that realistically. With his GG defense, there aren't many better options in the MLB. Jung-Hoo Lee will make more money than Robert next season and is pretty much the same age, has similar injury concerns and isn't clearly a more valuable hitter. 

See what Robert does next year and maybe he's due a reasonable extension. Injuries I think are still the biggest factor though. Still, it would be a shame if the current rookies continue to perform and improve, Braden and the other prospects come up and show out, and suddenly there's a massive hole in CF because Robert is no longer on the team. We've basically passed the point of trading for prospects, at some point you have to stop planning for the future and plan for the now. I say it's 2027.

Maybe the caveat is you don't think CF/up the middle defense is as important as I do, but still, who is at least a 'good enough' defender to play center field and will be available for the Sox to sign or trade for? Who is an internal option? Braden is a RF, Wolkow could maybe stick there and could be in MLB by 2027, but his bat is far from a sure thing. The rest of the OF prospects aren't going to see MLB any time soon and are also far from sure things.

tl;dr: keep Robert unless there's actually a better player available. Maybe it's Varsho who is a unrestricted free agent in 2027. Maybe then you decline Robert's second team option if he really proves to be a sub-.700 OPS hitter. So what if you have to pay him like Benintendi or a little more. Small price to pay for production at an important position. He could also hit .850 OPS and be a 5 WAR player and we'd be kicking ourselves if he wasn't on the team.

Doyle was pretty much untouchable last year, at least into the offseason.

Started out well this year, wife had a miscarriage and he has spent the rest of the season slumping, then trying to keep his head above water and get back to what he was in 2024.

Rockies really wouldn't have a need or interest in flipping him for Robert.

A legit big market contender MIGHT have seen enough...

[nrockway]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Doyle was pretty much untouchable last year, at least into the offseason.

Started out well this year, wife had a miscarriage and he has spent the rest of the season slumping, then trying to keep his head above water and get back to what he was in 2024.

Rockies really wouldn't have a need or interest in flipping him for Robert.

A legit big market contender MIGHT have seen enough...

That's horrible, I didn't know that. Adds a little context to his slow start.

I don't think it would be a Robert for Doyle trade, more like Doyle for 'prospects' whoever those players might be in a year or two. Not saying that deal would even be available or the Sox would have the pieces, I just like him on the team and he probably doesn't have a future in CO. Michael Harris II might be another option, but he's looking a lot like Luis.

Edited August 25 by nrockway

[greg775]

Should be interesting to see how he hits the final five weeks. Personally I'd keep him. At worst he's the best defensive center fielder we've had since Ken Berry or Chet Lemon. Maybe he's blossoming because he's finally 100 percent healthy. I'd take that chance. Everybody is worried about age of players when the team becomes a contender around here. Why aren't other teams afraid of guys 30-35? Our fans act like 29 is ancient. Other teams do not.

It doesn't take a team of superstars to win our pathetic division. When are the Sox gonna acquire enough players to at least contend for a WC? Keeping Robert to go with some of the young hitters would be a smart move. 

[The Mighty Mite]

This is one perplexing situation and I’m on the fence but not worried about his age, whichever way they go, it’s a gamble. The one thing for sure is that he is one great centerfielder but his production is not worth his salary, he still can’t get to a .700 OPS, if he was just at .750 I would keep him.

Edited August 25 by The Mighty Mite

[The Mighty Mite]

4 hours ago, greg775 said:

Should be interesting to see how he hits the final five weeks. Personally I'd keep him. At worst he's the best defensive center fielder we've had since Ken Berry or Chet Lemon. Maybe he's blossoming because he's finally 100 percent healthy. I'd take that chance. Everybody is worried about age of players when the team becomes a contender around here. Why aren't other teams afraid of guys 30-35? Our fans act like 29 is ancient. Other teams do not.

It doesn't take a team of superstars to win our pathetic division. When are the Sox gonna acquire enough players to at least contend for a WC? Keeping Robert to go with some of the young hitters would be a smart move. 

The answer to your last question is when JR is no longer the owner.

[Bob Sacamano]

Hope he hits for the next month, pick up the option, try to trade him. If you can’t, then he’s your CF.

Edited August 25 by Bob Sacamano

[oldsox]

Sox could be better next year, It's been a long time since I thought that. Quero, Teel, Vargas, Colson, Sosa, Baldwin, and now Luis Robert, should all be better. No comment here on pitching forecasts.

[hogan873]

At this point, I don't think there's a doubt the Sox will pick up the option.  My guess is that they will try to trade him but still not settle for a pennies on the dollar return.  Because of that, I see him being on the team next year.  If that is the case, and Robert continues to play like he has recently, he could be traded at next year's deadline.

[caulfield12]

25 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Sox could be better next year, It's been a long time since I thought that. Quero, Teel, Vargas, Colson, Sosa, Baldwin, and now Luis Robert, should all be better. No comment here on pitching forecasts.

Stuck with Benintendi and Molasses Tauchman…and no Curtis Read love lol?

[bmags]

If you put on your sports media psychoanalysis hat, I could see a case where Robert was relieved post trade deadline. He has had to live in this concept of constant "auditioning" and trying to be somewhere else, and finally he's able to just accept that he's on this team, it's his only career, and he's playing the kind of baseball he wants to play. No more worrying about injuring his soft tissue, he's playing pretty free out there.

His hitting was there pre-break, but the running out close plays at first, the defense, it all looks a little different. And a player playing so hard for the team and fans that had such a bad run with that, it really warms my heart a bit. Go Robert. Hope he can see a winner on the southside or get us a bunch of pieces, that'd be fine too.

[Lip Man 1]

10 hours ago, greg775 said:

Should be interesting to see how he hits the final five weeks. Personally I'd keep him. At worst he's the best defensive center fielder we've had since Ken Berry or Chet Lemon. Maybe he's blossoming because he's finally 100 percent healthy. I'd take that chance. Everybody is worried about age of players when the team becomes a contender around here. Why aren't other teams afraid of guys 30-35? Our fans act like 29 is ancient. Other teams do not.

It doesn't take a team of superstars to win our pathetic division. When are the Sox gonna acquire enough players to at least contend for a WC? Keeping Robert to go with some of the young hitters would be a smart move. 

Lance Johnson says "hello" 

[chitownsportsfan]

12 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

His defense has been outstanding and since the break he just looks different at the plate. Still work to do but he has looked like a totally different player the past 8 weeks! 

He looks refreshed. I wonder if the weight of being labelled a "bust" and the almost certain trade was hindering his performance. It's a rate stat, but he's been on pace for about 4 fWAR going on 6 weeks now. Basically he's gone from replacement to almost on the verge of a decent season at 1.3. He'll probably finish around 1.8 which while poor for his talent, certainly isn't a horrible effort and is worth picking up his option off.

[chitownsportsfan]

19 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Lance Johnson says "hello" 

Funny One Dog story, first game my mom went to, I was about 8, during warmups a guy was standing so still for so long in the OF she asked my dad why there was a statue on the field. It was Lance Johnson.