If the Sox win the World Series this year (or next!) it will be in large part due to the 2018 MLB Draft that currently features zero players on the big league squad. There is a lot of emphasis on homegrown talent, but cashing in on draft picks while they're still prospects can be just as important, especially when you need to make players timelines fit into a championship window. Here's a look back to the 2018 draft.
Round 1(4): Nick Madrigal
Current Team: Chicago Cubs (Traded with Codi Heuer for Craig Kimbrel)
Revisionist historians (Steve Stone) have labeled this pick a reach, but most experts either mocked the pick for the Sox or had the Phillies selecting him at number 3. Madrigal was taken one pick ahead of Jonathan India who is having a 2.3 WAR season for the Reds and two ahead of Jered Kelenic who was a top 10 prospect preseason before his rough start. Maybe the defense and baserunning were overrated as Stone has said, but that is not the White Sox concern anymore. After Madrigal's injury, the Sox needed a second basemen for the title run and acquired Cesar Hernandez who is signed until 2022 making Nicky "Two-Strikes" expendable. This pick will be one of the more panned selections (unfairly, IMO) in recent team history if the Sox don't win a ring during this title window. Cashing in the pick on a hall of fame closer is still a pretty solid return. Certainly better than the Atheltics drafting Kyler Murray at 9 over Grayson Rodriguez (11), Jordan Groshans (12), and Logan Gilbert (14).
Round 2(46) Steele Walker
Current Team: Texas Rangers (Traded with Dane Dunning for Lance "Cy" Lynn
The Sox drafted a 4-YR college outfielder out of Oklahama in lefty Steele Walker with the third pick of the second round. He was selected two spots ahead of Simeon Woods-Richardon and before mid-season top 20 prospect Brennan Davis (pick 62), but is one of the better picks of the round. In his first full year of pro ball, Walker slashed .284/.361/.451 with 10 homers in mostly High A. His year 23 season was wasted by COVID, which is a shame because a lot could've been learned by how he handled AA. Still, no regrats, as he still had enough value to be flipped along with Dane Dunning for Lance Lynn. Dunning has been pretty good this year (108 ERA+. 3.58 FIP) but Lance Lynn has been an ace for the Sox this year AND signed a very reasonable extension. Walker just got called up to AAA after a respectable 103 wRC+ in AA to start the year. Fangraphs has his as a 45+ prospect, which would make him the top hitter in the system. Walker is going to need to go on the Rangers 40-man roster this year, which is of course less of a consideration for a rebuilding team. If Lynn struggled this year, or didn't extend, there would always be questions about this trade (sans a ring of course). But as it stands, this trade, and therefore this pick, was a success.
Round 3(81) Konnor Pilkington
Current Team: Cleveland Guardians (Traded for Cesar Hernandez)
The Sox went for there third college senior of the draft, this time selecting a pitching in Mississippi State lefty Konnor Pilkington with the 3rd pick of round 3. If you were doing a redraft of the third round Pilkington would be one of the first few off of the board after Cal Raleigh (SEA), Kyle Isbel (KC), and maybe Owen White (currently on CLE). This was a pure scouting play for the Sox as Pilkington had a 4.47 ERA his last year with MSU, doesn't have elite "stuff" and was generally not a very highly regarded prospect at the time. Pilkington spent most of his first full year in High A where he had a 4.99 ERA and 1.44 WHIP after dominating low A. Advanced analytics took notice of his .343 BABIP against which put his FIP at a respectable 3.72. Despite losing the 2020 season to COVID, Pilkington has taken a leap at AA this year. In his 16 starts, Pilkington has a 3.25 ERA and .92 WHIP over 72 innings and had 84 K's to 25 walks despite being almost 2 years young for the level. Pilkington turns 24 next month, but will likely being competing for a spot in the rotation some time next year. Pilkington was traded for 2 cheap years of a gold glove second basemen that is an above league average hitter. To get that level of return for a third round pick is a success by any standard. Still anyone thinking that the sox "stole" Hernandez may be too focused on pre-season rankings. Maybe the Sox will regret this long term, but Hernandez will be a big part of this title window. At the very least, Hernandez playing for the Sox instead of against them in the remaining games with CLE helps with HFA.
Round 4 and Round 5
At this point in the draft, and arguably earlier, its hard to fault any misses on players because each team has had a few goes at the guys. The Sox drafted high schooler Lency Delgado in the fourth who has a .569 OPS in Low A as a 22 year old. The fifth round pick, Jonathan Stiever was a successful pick as he has already cracked the big league roster. Stiever Dominated his first full season in 2019 with a 3.48 ERA with 154 Ks to 27 walks over 145 innings between Low and High A with most of the success in high A. Stiever made two spot starts with the Sox in the lost COVID year, and while they weren't particularly successful, he was able to convince the Sox to skip AA in 2021 and start his year 24 season in AAA. In hindsight that may have been a bit aggressive as he has a 6.19 ERA in AAA this year (with a 4.65 FIP) in 16 starts. Had he had started the year in AA, perhaps the numbers would look a bit better. Even so he's someone that will likely repeat his role as a spot starter with the big league club in 2022.
Round 6(168) Codi Heuer
Current Team: Chicago Cubs (Traded with Nick Madrigal for Craig Kimbrel)
Originally drafted as a starter, Heuer was quickly converted to becoming a reliever. He dominated his way through the minors in 2019 and was dominant with the big league club in 2020 as a 23 year old. It is rare for a sixth rounder to make the show, and rarer yet to do within 2 years of being drafted. This year, Heuer's command took a step back as his H/9 (and ERA) doubled. Still, Heuer had enough value to be a considerable piece in acquiring Kimbrel. By any standard, Heuer was an absolute hit as a sixth rounder. Following the 6th round, Romy Gonzalez was by far the best pick and was a great find in the 18th round.
Although 4 out of the 5 "hits" have been traded in other organizations, the 2018 draft is a great representation of why homegrown talent is not the only indicator of a successful draft. With Madrigal's injury, Heuer's struggles, and Walker and Pilkington being 1-2 years away from contributing, the Sox were not going to be able to capitalize there draft in year 1 of the title window. Kimbrel, Hernandez, and 1/2 of Lynn was a solid haul for a draft class.
I think the 2018 draft class will be one of the more talked about classes on the board for years. If Lynn were a disaster or refused to re-sign, Walker and Dunning would be a haul for a 1 year rental. That said, even the biggest prospect huggers on this board can support that trade. The trade to the Cubs changed the Madrigal discussion from whether he was the right pick, to whether he was too much for Kimbrel. If the Sox win in the next two years, that subject will be moot. If they dont and Madrigal becomes a 3-4 WAR guy on the north side, it may be a poor-mans Eloy-Cease for Quintana trade. Pilkington going to the Sox's biggest rival has a chance to be quite annoying, but turning your third round pick into 1.5 cheap years of an above average middle infielder is a huge haul.
Hahn was an excellent seller, but this is his first run as a buyer since the Shields trade. The talent recognition in the draft was excellent, but whether the internal evaluations on the players as prospects was correct will be answered over the next few years. As I've said, none of that matters if the Sox get a ring