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Singles do not equal Runs


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Singles help very little in generating runs. Extra base hits help much, much more. That may seem obvious, but here's data to show how extreme this difference is.

I ran two correlations on 2022 to date team stats. One between runs scored and singles hit. One between runs scored and extra base hits.

A correlation is a number between -1 and 1.

1 is a pefrect correlation. There is a 100% direct impact of one stat on the other

-1 is an inverse correlation. There is a 100% opposite impact of one stat on the other.

0 is no correlation. There is no impact of one stat on the other.

The correlation between singles and runs is .185. This means there is very little correlation between hitting singles and scoring runs.

The correlation between extra base hits and runs is .860. This means there is an extremely high correlation between extra base hits and scoring runs.

This literally took me 5 minutes to do. I don't understand why a $1B+ franchise doesn't have someone pulling data like this and using it to make decisions about players and coaches.

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when your team is the 2014-5 royals, and you have very speedy base runners who are excellent at fundamentals, an amazing defense and bullpen, it can work.

We have some speedy runners who are asked to keep it in first gear, who are terrible at baserunning anyway, horrible defense, slightly above average bullpen and good starting pitching.

Seems it's not great in that scenario.

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12 minutes ago, bmags said:

when your team is the 2014-5 royals, and you have very speedy base runners who are excellent at fundamentals, an amazing defense and bullpen, it can work.

We have some speedy runners who are asked to keep it in first gear, who are terrible at baserunning anyway, horrible defense, slightly above average bullpen and good starting pitching.

Seems it's not great in that scenario.

Even the 2015 Royals were 11th in MLB in SLG. 2022 Sox are 18th.

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2 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Singles help very little in generating runs. Extra base hits help much, much more. That may seem obvious, but here's data to show how extreme this difference is.

I ran two correlations on 2022 to date team stats. One between runs scored and singles hit. One between runs scored and extra base hits.

A correlation is a number between -1 and 1.

1 is a pefrect correlation. There is a 100% direct impact of one stat on the other

-1 is an inverse correlation. There is a 100% opposite impact of one stat on the other.

0 is no correlation. There is no impact of one stat on the other.

The correlation between singles and runs is .185. This means there is very little correlation between hitting singles and scoring runs.

The correlation between extra base hits and runs is .860. This means there is an extremely high correlation between extra base hits and scoring runs.

This literally took me 5 minutes to do. I don't understand why a $1B+ franchise doesn't have someone pulling data like this and using it to make decisions about players and coaches.

This is what frustrates me about this team and their apparent approach.  You would be better off with 5-6 hits in a game with 3-4 XBH than 11 hits in a game and 1 XBH.  Your average would be lower but you would score more runs.  Like you said this isn't very hard to figure out.

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Agreed, but has been the MO of our POS hitting coach Menechino all year. 

Here is an interesting stat to ponder. Abreu leads the Sox with 14 home runs. Relative to the rest of the league, 26 of 30 teams all have their home run leaders with more than 14 home runs. In fact, there are 59 players in baseball with more home runs than Abreu.

 

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58 minutes ago, bmags said:

when your team is the 2014-5 royals, and you have very speedy base runners who are excellent at fundamentals, an amazing defense and bullpen, it can work.

We have some speedy runners who are asked to keep it in first gear, who are terrible at baserunning anyway, horrible defense, slightly above average bullpen and good starting pitching.

Seems it's not great in that scenario.

It does feel like Hahn is trying to mimic those Royals teams. We spend a ton on the bullpen and teach a similar hitting philosophy. The only problem is that we're terrible on defense, slow af, and even our fast guys don't hustle cause they're afraid to get hurt. 

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2 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

This literally took me 5 minutes to do. I don't understand why a $1B+ franchise doesn't have someone pulling data like this and using it to make decisions about players and coaches.

Because the analytical department is just full of buddy hires, none of which have math experience. Your post would be way over their heads

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32 minutes ago, The Kids Can Play said:

Agreed, but has been the MO of our POS hitting coach Menechino all year. 

Here is an interesting stat to ponder. Abreu leads the Sox with 14 home runs. Relative to the rest of the league, 26 of 30 teams all have their home run leaders with more than 14 home runs. In fact, there are 59 players in baseball with more home runs than Abreu.

 

I wish the water carriers would push on Hahn about this but of course they wont.

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12 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

Because the analytical department is just full of buddy hires, none of which have math experience. Your post would be way over their heads

The Sox buddy system equals a nonexistent and archaic analytical department. Even if it was solid or state of the art, TLR and Menechino would have no clue how to use those stats or better yet, coach their hitters to make the proper hitting adjustments.

Here are some more disturbing stats for the Sox:

Walks                                              30th - 2.39 per game

Pitches Per Plate Appearance    30th - 3.78 per PA

Home Runs                                    26th - 91 HR's 

ISO                                                   28th - 0.127

 

 

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9 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Singles help very little in generating runs. Extra base hits help much, much more. That may seem obvious, but here's data to show how extreme this difference is.

I ran two correlations on 2022 to date team stats. One between runs scored and singles hit. One between runs scored and extra base hits.

A correlation is a number between -1 and 1.

1 is a pefrect correlation. There is a 100% direct impact of one stat on the other

-1 is an inverse correlation. There is a 100% opposite impact of one stat on the other.

0 is no correlation. There is no impact of one stat on the other.

The correlation between singles and runs is .185. This means there is very little correlation between hitting singles and scoring runs.

The correlation between extra base hits and runs is .860. This means there is an extremely high correlation between extra base hits and scoring runs.

This literally took me 5 minutes to do. I don't understand why a $1B+ franchise doesn't have someone pulling data like this and using it to make decisions about players and coaches.

Astros are scoring something like 47-48% of their runs on homers, fwiw.

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6 hours ago, The Kids Can Play said:

The Sox buddy system equals a nonexistent and archaic analytical department. Even if it was solid or state of the art, TLR and Menechino would have no clue how to use those stats or better yet, coach their hitters to make the proper hitting adjustments.

Here are some more disturbing stats for the Sox:

Walks                                              30th - 2.39 per game

Pitches Per Plate Appearance    30th - 3.78 per PA

Home Runs                                    26th - 91 HR's 

ISO                                                   28th - 0.127

 

 

How many times have the Sox had a winning record from 1991-2021 while NOT in the Top 1-20 spots for homers?

Probably very few times THAT even happened across a stretch of thirty years…even in the last decade when rebuilding.

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We pride ourselves on oppo singles. Someone should ask coach Frank what's going on. Maybe Bruce never noticed. Meanwhile they rarely power the ball anywhere. They need new batting coaches. 

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Average Hone Runs over 162 games based on all career MLB at bats:

Eloy Jimenez  -  37
Luis Robert    - 36
Jose Abreu   -  32
Yasmani Grandal -  26
Gavin Sheets    -  26
Jake Burger / AJ Pollock  - 22
Yoan Moncada  -  20
Andrew Vaughn  -  19

(source: Baseball Reference.com)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, tray said:

Average Hone Runs over 162 games based on all career MLB at bats:

Eloy Jimenez  -  37
Luis Robert    - 36
Jose Abreu   -  32
Yasmani Grandal -  26
Gavin Sheets    -  26
Jake Burger / AJ Pollock  - 22
Yoan Moncada  -  20
Andrew Vaughn  -  19

(source: Baseball Reference.com)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is that per real game #'s (rate per game x 162) or extrapolated out to 600 at bat homer rates?

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1 hour ago, tray said:

Average Hone Runs over 162 games based on all career MLB at bats:

Eloy Jimenez  -  37
Luis Robert    - 36
Jose Abreu   -  32
Yasmani Grandal -  26
Gavin Sheets    -  26
Jake Burger / AJ Pollock  - 22
Yoan Moncada  -  20
Andrew Vaughn  -  19

(source: Baseball Reference.com)

 

 

 

 

Bull shit stat

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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17 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Singles help very little in generating runs. Extra base hits help much, much more. That may seem obvious, but here's data to show how extreme this difference is.

I ran two correlations on 2022 to date team stats. One between runs scored and singles hit. One between runs scored and extra base hits.

A correlation is a number between -1 and 1.

1 is a pefrect correlation. There is a 100% direct impact of one stat on the other

-1 is an inverse correlation. There is a 100% opposite impact of one stat on the other.

0 is no correlation. There is no impact of one stat on the other.

The correlation between singles and runs is .185. This means there is very little correlation between hitting singles and scoring runs.

The correlation between extra base hits and runs is .860. This means there is an extremely high correlation between extra base hits and scoring runs.

This literally took me 5 minutes to do. I don't understand why a $1B+ franchise doesn't have someone pulling data like this and using it to make decisions about players and coaches.

@southsider2k5 - Give this man a raise.

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After the botched deadline, Hahn acknowledged the lack of power was our biggest problem and word for word said “ball go far, team go far”.  Meanwhile, he’s done absolutely NOTHING to address this issue and has maintained the hitting coach who famously said “fuck the HR”.  It takes a special level of incompetence to know what your main issue and refuse to do anything to address it.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

After the botched deadline, Hahn acknowledged the lack of power was our biggest problem and word for word said “ball go far, team go far”.  Meanwhile, he’s done absolutely NOTHING to address this issue and has maintained the hitting coach who famously said “fuck the HR”.  It takes a special level of incompetence to know what your main issue and refuse to do anything to address it.

I'm pretty sure I heard Hahn on the Score in the last week defending Menechino, saying this is the same guy that led these guys to big numbers in 20 and 21, therefore he is not the problem.

Edited by Sarava
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