This is a solid post. I was a Moncada hater in that I continually stressed last year that he needed to cut down on the Ks. I insisted that if he failed to do that, he would indeed be a bust. Other people correctly pointed out that he K'ed looking too much and that he'd improve as he got a better grasp of the strike zone. It looks like that is happening, because his approach is changed. I don't really care about him being 9-20, because 5 game samples are pointless, but I do care about his newfound aggressiveness early in the count and his lack of Ks so far. Last year, he had two five game stretches where he racked up 9 hits, but he had a total of 17 Ks in 47 PAs during those ten games. The Ks were always there, hot or not. And I think those have dropped this year because of this new approach.
I've shared this before, but I'll plug it in again. It's a comp tool I made with Excel where you can plug in PAs, each type of hit, BB-rate, K-rate, and it computes everything else. In this edition, for player A, I inputted Moncada's stats from last year (it's not completely perfect, I don't bother with HBP or SF/SH). For players B, C, D, the only change I made was K-rate (to 25%, 20%, and his current SSS of 16%) and then adjusted his number of singles so that his BABIP matched last year's .341 (which assumes that he doesn't build on last year's XBH numbers at all, which is probably not going to be the case. Either way, his OPS climbs to .770 at 25% k-rate, .803 at 20%, and .833 at 16%. Check it out and play around with it, if interested.
Either way, if the Ks come down, he's a star.
Player Comp.xlsx