This is true and not true at the same time. Yes, Kopech is not giving us anywhere close to 200 innings next year. Dunning will also be restricted given his limited workload this year. They both require special handling in 2021, but both are major league ready and can be key contributors. Additionally, we have Cease who shouldn’t have many restrictions next year, but is coming off a terrible 2020 season which adds uncertainty.
I think the reality is we need to add two starters, a #2 / #3 type that can be a key part of a playoff staff and a #4 type who can be in the back of the rotation mix along with the young guys. Let’s say you could add Lynn for Stiever++ and then sign someone like Richards for that second spot. All of a sudden this is your 2021 rotation:
Giolito
Lynn
Keuchel
Richards
Dunning
Cease
Kopech
Lopez
Kopech & Cease start the year in AAA where the former’s workload can be managed while he shakes off some rust (and earns back a year of service time) and where the latter can work on any mechanical changes that Katz identifies this offseason / spring training. Even if Richards can only give you a 100 good innings before going down with injury, you now have two high-end prospects waiting in the wings for their chance. Given there will likely be seven playoff teams in each league next year, I think this rotation structure should be totally doable for us. And then come October, you’ll have a big three of Giolito, Lynn (or comparable pitcher), & Keuchel to battle with it. It may not be perfect, but we can’t afford to fully punt on the development of all our young arms or the window will quickly come to a close. We need to find a balance and this plan is the best way to do that IMO.