Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud

[caulfield12]

Here’s a trade…

Kimbrel and Adolfo for either Caratini or Jorge Alfaro…Padres have four catchers including Nola and Campusano.  Money would go to SD if they gave up Caratini instead of Alfaro.

Alfaro and Adolfo out of options, but both could be carried on MLB rosters the first month while at 28.

And that would at least improve the backup catching spot and finally offload Kimbrel’s $16 million.  Then again, they might want to hold onto Collins’ LH bat for yet another year, just because…

[bmags]

28 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I don't think the Rodon situation had anything to do with the money. It had everything to do with trusting him to be healthy for the entire season and the playoffs.

That's terrible decision making process.

[chw42]

3 hours ago, fathom said:

I know he has the proven stats from before 2021, but I can totally see how last season’s red flags have scared the Sox off.  

He struggled in the first half cause he was battling injuries, but fared much better to end the season in August and September. 

His .340 wOBA in the 2nd half was much closer to his career norms. That's a sign that he hasn't just lost it and can't ever recover from his bad 2021. 

His Statcast numbers weren't that far off from his numbers in 2020, where he had a career year. His exit velocity, hard hit rate, and launch angle were all better in 2021 than in 2020. In fact, his xwOBA was .350, whereas his wOBA was .322. He even cut down on strike outs and walked more last year. There is a lot to point to in the underlying numbers that say Conforto will most likely bounce back. The only things I'd be concerned about him going forward is the lower barrel rate, which was its lowest it has ever been in his career last year and his lower line drive rate, which was also low compared to his career average last year. Those 2 factors probably affected his power output quite a bit, which is an area of concern for him going forward. 

I just think dismissing Conforto because of his subpar 2021 surface numbers gives a very incomplete picture of who he is as a player. Let's face it, the Sox would have no shot of signing Conforto had he had a normal year in 2021. But his subpar 2021 has afforded the Sox to have a seat at the table. It's just too bad the Sox have no intention of taking a seat. 

Edited March 23, 2022 by chw42

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

21 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Unless 2-3 big market teams just happen to have major injuries or bullpens imploding in the early season…and Kimbrel is both healthy and performing well.  Wouldn’t want to put odds on all those things breaking the Sox way, though.

At this point, if he's worth nothing it makes no sense to move him. It's absolutely outrageous how much money they have tied up in the bullpen, and if their plan was to spend money on the bullpen this off-season keeping Kimbrel was even more braindead, but it's obvious at this point the Sox misread the market (again, nice common theme here), and now they're stuck with paying 50 million dollars to their bullpen

Edited March 23, 2022 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[chw42]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

At this point, if he's worth nothing it makes no sense to move him. It's absolutely outrageous how much money they have tied up in the bullpen, and if their plan was to spend money on the bullpen this off-season keeping Kimbrel was even more braindead, but it's obvious at this point the Sox misread the market (again, nice common theme here), and now their stuck with paying 50 million dollars to their bullpen

I remember thinking there was no way we'd spend $30+ million for 2 closers last year. Now we've done that and spent an additional $16 million on 2 other relievers. It's pure insanity. 

[Spumoni]

29 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

See, while everyone else is angry and upset now I was over that weeks ago because I already knew the Sox would do nothing. 

I've also accepted that Kimbrel will be on the team; it will be another miss for the insiders. Picking up the contract never made any sense; picking it up thinking that it somehow had surplus value that would make him a valuable trade piece made even less sense. If they move him, it will be for nothing.

Here's to hoping I'm wrong about both things, but I've accepted the reality long ago and see no reason in getting upset about it. 

Ready to hope our guys can overcome the ineptitude of the front office and play some great baseball.

This is where I'm at because otherwise I don't think I could deal with it anymore. 

[chw42]

1 minute ago, Spumoni said:

This is where I'm at because otherwise I don't think I could deal with it anymore. 

Last year, it was overcoming TLR.

This year, it's overcoming TLR and the front office. 

Next year, it'll be overcoming TLR, the FO, and JR. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, chw42 said:

I remember thinking there was no way we'd spend $30+ million for 2 closers last year. Now we've done that and spent an additional $16 million on 2 other relievers. It's pure insanity. 

Between just 6 guys:

Hendriks
Kimbrel
Graveman
Kelly
Velasquez
Bummer

They have 49.83 million dollars tied up this year. 

If you had Reylo, it's up to 52.5 million. That's honestly amazing. 

The more amazing thing is I think there's a very good chance their best reliever in that bunch is the lowest paid one (Bummer), although obviously Hendriks is the favorite there. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, chw42 said:

Last year, it was overcoming TLR.

This year, it's overcoming TLR and the front office. 

Next year, it'll be overcoming TLR, the FO, and JR. 

Yeah, everyone is ripping Jerry. I'm kind of over that at this point. Maybe one could argue Jerry is giving year to year budgets and not allowing multi-year allocations (seems unlikely given the RP contracts but who knows), but this is all on Hahn. He took 47 million dollars this off-season and pissed it down the drain.

[Spumoni]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah, everyone is ripping Jerry. I'm kind of over that at this point. Maybe one could argue Jerry is giving year to year budgets and not allowing multi-year allocations (seems unlikely given the RP contracts but who knows), but this is all on Hahn. He took 47 million dollars this off-season and pissed it down the drain.

It's been said too many times to count on this thread but I'll never understand what he was thinking.  

[southsider2k5]

48 minutes ago, fathom said:

I know he has the proven stats from before 2021, but I can totally see how last season’s red flags have scared the Sox off.  

I have said exactly this about Conforto in the past, and can fully appreciate the logic there.  But there were PLENTY of other RFs out there over the course of this off season, both through trades and the FA market.

Even if the Sox really feel that Andrew Vaughn and Co can really fill RF, then they need to set an expectation with fans that this winter is over.  Stringing them along with half hints and that kind of BS is giving oxygen and dead trees to a forest fire of anger.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

21 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Here’s a trade…

Kimbrel and Adolfo for either Caratini or Jorge Alfaro…Padres have four catchers including Nola and Campusano.  Money would go to SD if they gave up Caratini instead of Alfaro.

Alfaro and Adolfo out of options, but both could be carried on MLB rosters the first month while at 28.

And that would at least improve the backup catching spot and finally offload Kimbrel’s $16 million.  Then again, they might want to hold onto Collins’ LH bat for yet another year, just because…

wow that would be horrendous.  If we aren't going to spend his money, just keep the dude.

[southsider2k5]

30 minutes ago, wegner said:

Who are we going to trade him for?

Our next RF, duh.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

I have said exactly this about Conforto in the past, and can fully appreciate the logic there.  But there were PLENTY of other RFs out there over the course of this off season, both through trades and the FA market.

Even if the Sox really feel that Andrew Vaughn and Co can really fill RF, then they need to set an expectation with fans that this winter is over.  Stringing them along with half hints and that kind of BS is giving oxygen and dead trees to a forest fire of anger.

I actually think the Sox have been pretty transparent that nothing is coming and that they're done with acquistions via the FA market. 

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Last year, it was overcoming TLR.

This year, it's overcoming TLR and the front office. 

Next year, it'll be overcoming TLR, the FO, and JR. 

To be fair, all of that is because of JR.

[chw42]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah, everyone is ripping Jerry. I'm kind of over that at this point. Maybe one could argue Jerry is giving year to year budgets and not allowing multi-year allocations (seems unlikely given the RP contracts but who knows), but this is all on Hahn. He took 47 million dollars this off-season and pissed it down the drain.

I don't really blame Jerry for spending this money so damn poorly. Even if we couldn't commit big money over multiple years for a RFer, there were short-term options that made so much more sense than what we did. 

[chw42]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

To be fair, all of that is because of JR.

This is true. LaRussa was definitely his doing. 

[bmags]

sox FO completely backs themselves in a corner where only one RF improves them, but has red flags

"I don't blame them, I wouldn't spend the money on that guy either"

rinse repeat for everything.

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

sox FO completely backs themselves in a corner where only one RF improves them, but has red flags

"I don't blame them, I wouldn't spend the money on that guy either"

rinse repeat for everything.

 

Maybe we'll hear that they offered Joc more money pre-lockout but he wanted to wait and ended up taking less!

[Tony]

Seems clear as the days go on that they were not anticipating this offseason, seemingly had no backup plan when their original intentions didn't materialize and are going to attempt to "add" at around the deadline. Which may end up working, seeing as the AL Central shouldn't be that big of a buzzsaw. But it still doesn't excuse what has taken place the last 8 months. 

 

[FoxForce2]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

... if Craig flopped again as closer.

If?

[Saufley]

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I actually think the Sox have been pretty transparent that nothing is coming and that they're done with acquistions via the FA market. 

I agree and that is exactly what I said about one week ago. To keep bringing it up is like beating a dead horse! The FO has told us that they are done. Sink or swim!

[wegner]

16 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Our next RF, duh.

I knew they had a plausible plan....thanks.

[ChiSox59]

43 minutes ago, chw42 said:

I remember thinking there was no way we'd spend $30+ million for 2 closers last year. Now we've done that and spent an additional $16 million on 2 other relievers. It's pure insanity. 

I mean - we needed relievers. Imagine how bad this pen would be without Kimbrel, Graveman and Kelly. I continue to not understand why people are so up in arms about signing the latter two. Maybe they over a tiny bit, but they needed relievers. Unless you wanted to watch Foster, Burr and Ruiz blow games all summer. 

[Spumoni]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I mean - we needed relievers. Imagine how bad this pen would be without Kimbrel, Graveman and Kelly. I continue to not understand why people are so up in arms about signing the latter two. Maybe they over a tiny bit, but they needed relievers. Unless you wanted to watch Foster, Burr and Ruiz blow games all summer. 

If the plan was to sign Graveman and Kelly they should have under no circumstances picked up Kimbrel's option if they didn't already have a clear plan to move him.  I don't dislike either signing in a vacuum, but would prefer they would have addressed the continual shit show that has been RF for years and years now.