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Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud


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11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I still don’t get why we didn’t pursue McHugh.  Was he the guy who accused us of service time manipulation?

Because the Braves are smarter?

Because we'd rather pay Leury and Harrison (this year's Jimmy Rollins) the same amount, even though neither would appear on a Top 20 list, let alone Top 10.

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McHugh would have been a great fit for the Sox... and basically every other team in baseball too. It is strange that he was only able to sign for 2/10M with a cheap team option for year 3. Teams really prioritize velocity first for relievers, it seems. Everything else about him suggests he is elite.

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19 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

McHugh would have been a great fit for the Sox... and basically every other team in baseball too. It is strange that he was only able to sign for 2/10M with a cheap team option for year 3. Teams really prioritize velocity first for relievers, it seems. Everything else about him suggests he is elite.

It's also wise to have a softer tossing pitcher like Tepera to give a change of pace from 95+ from everyone.

This might be a need that Keuchel can expensively fill throughout the seaon, but it seems pretty certain he will at least start out in the rotation.  Someone like Evan Marshall, but they tend to get battered when their location is off.  There was another forkball/split guy we got from the Cubs who was really effective but could never manage to stay healthy...think that was 5-6 years or so ago.

Edited by caulfield12
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21 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

McHugh would have been a great fit for the Sox... and basically every other team in baseball too. It is strange that he was only able to sign for 2/10M with a cheap team option for year 3. Teams really prioritize velocity first for relievers, it seems. Everything else about him suggests he is elite.

I thought he was a good idea for the Sox for a few years now...oh well.  I guess Rick got the relievers he wanted.

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36 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

McHugh would have been a great fit for the Sox... and basically every other team in baseball too. It is strange that he was only able to sign for 2/10M with a cheap team option for year 3. Teams really prioritize velocity first for relievers, it seems. Everything else about him suggests he is elite.

I thought he wanted to play in Atlanta, as he went to high school around there

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10 minutes ago, fathom said:

I thought he wanted to play in Atlanta, as he went to high school around there

"Over the span of two days, the Braves signed McHugh and fellow Gwinnett County native Matt Olson to deals. McHugh agreed to a 2-year, $10 million contract to return home to Atlanta. McHugh said the first call he made was to his wife and then his mother." 5 days ago.

Lost out to the Wheeler Wife Effect...a different variation.

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The next 3 years are the Sox best window to win a championship. Now that’s not to say a rebuild is due after that, or that some moves couldn’t possibly extend past that timeframe, for sure. 

This season we’re right near the luxury tax threshold, with our main glaring hole in RF.  Pretty easy to see that trading Kimbrel and most (if not all) of his $16million would assist in landing an upgrade in RF. Most likely, the Sox are standing pat though, at least until the trade deadline. We shall see…

2023… we skim off potentially about $40 million off this year’s payroll. That includes losing Abreu, Velasquez, and Kimbrel. It also assumes we avoid pitching Keuchel 200+ innings this year so he becomes a free agent. Holes in 2023 are RF and a starting pitcher to replace Keuchel. This assumes Vaughn or Sheets to 1st base.

Now we could resign Abreu to a 1-yr contract, but signing him to a $20+ million contract compared to playing Vaughn or Sheets there is a huge difference in costs. Really big decision here for GM that obviously hinges on how Vaughn plays out in 2022. 

2024… we skim another $20 million off the books potentially. Included in the losses would be Grandal, Giolito, Harrison, Lopez and Engel. Lots of contract escalators keep the savings to only $20 million. Holes are obviously hard to project but look like RF, two starting pitchers, catcher and second baseman. 

Hopefully, we can try to nab a more permanent RF within that timeframe and during this run. Or maybe Cespedes or Colas develop and become a cheap alternative for the Sox future in 2023 or 24.

Moncada’s contract could be bothersome if he never gets that power back (he gets paid $17.8, $23.8 and $25 million in 2023-2025). That’s alot of jack that we can only opt out in 2025.  So much better if he produces and gets the power form back. 

Starting pitchers will probably need to be outside the organization as free agents or trades, unless the Sox figure out a way to get Crochet ready in 2023 or 2024. I don’t believe we have ready-made starters in the minors behind Kopech or Crochet (possibly) .

 

 

 

Edited by SouthSideGeorgia
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40 minutes ago, SouthSideGeorgia said:

The next 3 years are the Sox best window to win a championship. Now that’s not to say a rebuild is due after that, or that some moves couldn’t possibly extend past that timeframe, for sure. 

1. This season we’re right near the luxury tax threshold, with our main glaring hole in RF.  Pretty easy to see that trading Kimbrel and most (if not all) of his $16million would assist in landing an upgrade in RF. Most likely, the Sox are standing pat though, at least until the trade deadline. We shall see…

2. 2023… we skim off potentially about $40 million off this year’s payroll. That includes losing Abreu, Velasquez, and Kimbrel. It also assumes we avoid pitching Keuchel 200+ innings this year so he becomes a free agent. Holes in 2023 are RF and a starting pitcher to replace Keuchel. This assumes Vaughn or Sheets to 1st base.

3. Now we could resign Abreu to a 1-yr contract, but signing him to a $20+ million contract compared to playing Vaughn or Sheets there is a huge difference in costs. Really big decision here for GM that obviously hinges on how Vaughn plays out in 2022. 

4. Moncada’s contract could be bothersome if he never gets that power back (he gets paid $17.8, $23.8 and $25 million in 2023-2025). That’s a lot of jack that we can only opt out in 2025.  So much better if he produces and gets the power form back. 

5. Starting pitchers will probably need to be outside the organization as free agents or trades, unless the Sox figure out a way to get Crochet ready in 2023 or 2024. I don’t believe we have ready-made starters in the minors behind Kopech or Crochet (possibly) .

 

 

 

1. Barring a complete change in direction on Conforto or taking the flyer on Joc, the only way we really strengthen RF is getting someone in a Kimbrel deal. By most appearances, that forces the Sox into a stand-pat position until the trade deadline.

2. Keuchel won't be in a Sox uniform in 2023.

3. The only way Jose signs for $20M anywhere is if he goes OPS at .850 or better this year.  After Jose's comment upon spring training arrival, he becomes even more of a wildcard than he already has been. Abreu's leadership and clubhouse/dugout presence is a dynamic I wouldn't trifle with. If he is up for going more DH and days off and still driving in runs at a monster rate, I definitely bring him back for 2023 - but not at $20M.

4. Even if Moncada can insert 15-20 HR into an .825-.850 OPS he has real value. Yeah that $23M-$25M appears a stretch though.

5. IMO the Sox need an overhaul in MiLB pitching both in talent and coaching/development. Over the past several years the Org has done well in working up a 'hitting culture' throughout the system. Pitching --- not so much.

 

Edited by FoxForce2
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57 minutes ago, SouthSideGeorgia said:

The next 3 years are the Sox best window to win a championship. Now that’s not to say a rebuild is due after that, or that some moves couldn’t possibly extend past that timeframe, for sure. 

This season we’re right near the luxury tax threshold, with our main glaring hole in RF.  Pretty easy to see that trading Kimbrel and most (if not all) of his $16million would assist in landing an upgrade in RF. Most likely, the Sox are standing pat though, at least until the trade deadline. We shall see…

2023… we skim off potentially about $40 million off this year’s payroll. That includes losing Abreu, Velasquez, and Kimbrel. It also assumes we avoid pitching Keuchel 200+ innings this year so he becomes a free agent. Holes in 2023 are RF and a starting pitcher to replace Keuchel. This assumes Vaughn or Sheets to 1st base.

Now we could resign Abreu to a 1-yr contract, but signing him to a $20+ million contract compared to playing Vaughn or Sheets there is a huge difference in costs. Really big decision here for GM that obviously hinges on how Vaughn plays out in 2022. 

2024… we skim another $20 million off the books potentially. Included in the losses would be Grandal, Giolito, Harrison, Lopez and Engel. Lots of contract escalators keep the savings to only $20 million. Holes are obviously hard to project but look like RF, two starting pitchers, catcher and second baseman. 

Hopefully, we can try to nab a more permanent RF within that timeframe and during this run. Or maybe Cespedes or Colas develop and become a cheap alternative for the Sox future in 2023 or 24.

Moncada’s contract could be bothersome if he never gets that power back (he gets paid $17.8, $23.8 and $25 million in 2023-2025). That’s alot of jack that we can only opt out in 2025.  So much better if he produces and gets the power form back. 

Starting pitchers will probably need to be outside the organization as free agents or trades, unless the Sox figure out a way to get Crochet ready in 2023 or 2024. I don’t believe we have ready-made starters in the minors behind Kopech or Crochet (possibly) .

 

 

 

While $60 million comes off the payroll after this season (Abreu, Kimbrel, Keuchel, VV), with reasonable estimates, it is easy to see how most of that money has already been spent, as a whole bunch of guys have their salaries go up.

Moncada - $13 million to $17 million
Robert - $6 million to $9 million
Eloy - $7 million to $10 million
Anderson - $9 million to $12 million
Bummer and Hendriks go up by a million each

Then you have guys who are still in arbitration
Giolito goes up by probably $3 million
Engel and Lopez would go up by $1-2 million each. While those might not be picked up, they may also not be easily replaced (How much is a backup/UT player this year?)

Then you have important guys hitting arbitration for the first time:
Kopech, Cease
Collins/Mendick/Ruiz if any of them are still around.

With reasonable guesses for the arb guys, it's easy to see how the White Sox have $165-$170 million in payroll already committed for 2023, maybe a little higher to fill out a 40 man roster. So right now, perhaps there's $20 million in salary decrease between this year and next year, but a majority of the money coming off the books is already being redistributed, and that's before talking about Abreu if he decides to come back.

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3 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Why did hi8is Wednesday thread get locked?

Because it said "Tomorrow is Wednesday" and I don't want hi8is to be accused of lying to people when tomorrow is clearly Thursday at this point.

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50 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

While $60 million comes off the payroll after this season (Abreu, Kimbrel, Keuchel, VV), with reasonable estimates, it is easy to see how most of that money has already been spent, as a whole bunch of guys have their salaries go up.

Moncada - $13 million to $17 million
Robert - $6 million to $9 million
Eloy - $7 million to $10 million
Anderson - $9 million to $12 million
Bummer and Hendriks go up by a million each

Then you have guys who are still in arbitration
Giolito goes up by probably $3 million
Engel and Lopez would go up by $1-2 million each. While those might not be picked up, they may also not be easily replaced (How much is a backup/UT player this year?)

Then you have important guys hitting arbitration for the first time:
Kopech, Cease
Collins/Mendick/Ruiz if any of them are still around.

With reasonable guesses for the arb guys, it's easy to see how the White Sox have $165-$170 million in payroll already committed for 2023, maybe a little higher to fill out a 40 man roster. So right now, perhaps there's $20 million in salary decrease between this year and next year, but a majority of the money coming off the books is already being redistributed, and that's before talking about Abreu if he decides to come back.

Yes, the savings number I posted already accounted for the payroll escalations in the contracts of Robert, Eloy, TA and the rest of the players.

Granted, it did not include escalations for arbitration eligible players which will only go up (and I kept them the same for consistency). I’m sure the that will eat up a decent chunk of the funds to consider. The $40 million savings next year was baseline. 

Thanks for the feedback. 

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Seems like this board has all but given up on talking about Conforto. I haven't heard much about him on Twitter the last few days either. Maybe Boras does really want him to sign a deal after the QO expires. 

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Just now, chw42 said:

Seems like this board has all but given up on talking about Conforto. I haven't heard much about him on Twitter the last few days either. Maybe Boras does really want him to sign a deal after the QO expires. 

The penny pinching with Giolito pretty much puts this conversation to rest. 

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