Grade the Cease trade

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, Eminor3rd said:

C. I think it needed one more solid secondary piece if Thorpe was headliner.

Swap Snelling for Thorpe or add one more guy in the Zavala range and I’d be happy. 

Agreed

[chitownsportsfan]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There are currently 0 A voters to hear from. 

For reference I was in with C. Better than I thought it would be at this time but unimpressive compared to holding him.

I might have agreed with you a few years ago but it seems like the MLB landscape has changed with teams still finalizing things well into March and real value moving and being signed still. 

I'm not sure the market would be any better in July than it is now. Teams now realize you get more utility making this trade to win now in March, than you do in summer. 

I've argued differently prior, so I'm probably just full of s%*#. But it sounded good. 

Edited March 14 by chitownsportsfan

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I like his profile stats wise,  but it's a bit alarming the same franchise that went with Andrew Vaughn as slugging 5-10" (not even just height, but lack of overall explosion) 1B and Nick Madrigal as once a generation .380 BABIP guy also thinks this kid is a (relatively) undervalued commodity.  We don't do well with diamonds in the rough. Hell, we turn diamonds into coal quite often or sell it for .50 on the dollar too early. 

If Mena's really in the mid 90's on a consistent basis, it's pretty hard to bet against him proving the White Sox wrong...something almost everyone traded the last two decades comes around to do at some point down the line.

 

But you have those two guys, the noted upside concerns with Gonzalez, even Burger had more than his share of flaws but sheer will/determination helped him to overcome a number of those negatives (without much if any help from the team itself).

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

C- honestly.

 

i just wouldn’t have jumped on this offer. I love Thorpe too. But the 2nd piece is strongly lacking. Zavala is interesting and so confused at why a bullpen arm was added

Padres trying to cut salary anywhere they possibly can to stay as close to $200 million payroll...

[chitownsportsfan]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If Mena's really in the mid 90's on a consistent basis, it's pretty hard to bet against him proving the White Sox wrong...something almost everyone traded the last two decades comes around to do at some point down the line.

 

But you have those two guys, the noted upside concerns with Gonzalez, even Burger had more than his share of flaws but sheer will/determination helped him to overcome a number of those negatives (without much if any help from the team itself).

Burger is the versatile plays bigger than his "off the bus" profile would tell you that they hope Vaughn can be. The Burger trade was fine, the were never going to pay him, but yea -- would anybody b**** if they announced KW as some "director of athletic scouting" or some s%*#? That's about where I'm at with it. And obviously whoever advocated for Colson needs to be elevated.

[southsider2k5]

29 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

I question whether Thorpe can pitch in MLB with his fastball velocity in the modern game. this isn't 1994, it's 2024. When was the last time you saw a pitcher like Brad Radke have success? 

Thorpe reminds me of Lance Broadway and Kyle McCulloch

Kyle Hendriks

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Burger is the versatile plays bigger than his "off the bus" profile would tell you that they hope Vaughn can be. The Burger trade was fine, the were never going to pay him, but yea -- would anybody b**** if they announced KW as some "director of athletic scouting" or some s%*#? That's about where I'm at with it. And obviously whoever advocated for Colson needs to be elevated.

Pretty sure he went into collegiate coaching already...somewhere in the Midwest.

[southsider2k5]

23 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

C. I think it needed one more solid secondary piece if Thorpe was headliner.

Swap Snelling for Thorpe or add one more guy in the Zavala range and I’d be happy. 

Exactly 

[T R U]

I voted A. 
 

From the Cease side of things, he’s a good SP but is he Cy Young contender consistently good? Maybe, he’ll need to prove that this year. There’s as much risk that he’s more 2023 Cease than 2022. I would expect him to have a good year for the Padres as I think 2023 was more of a the team was the problem situation more than Cease just not being as good as we saw in 22. 
 

From the White Sox side, you get 3 legit prospects and a potential flip candidate. The three legit prospects to me is a big deal. The reality is we were never getting those top 10-15 guys that were fantasized about around here. What we did get is a top 100 prospect plus two more guys who have been in and around the top 100 within the last year. Thorpe is a nice prospect, he has an outstanding changeup and great control. And he’s close to being ready. Iriarte is an electric arm with a high ceiling. Zavala is a toolsy OFer with a high ceiling. These guys aren’t lotto tickets they are legit prospects. This is a major boost to a system that’s lacking high ceiling talents and especially starting pitchers. 
 

For a team that’s not going to spend big in free agency this to me is an ideal trade to try and have this team headed in the right direction in the next few years. I much prefer this type of deal over one super prospect and then some fillers. 
 

This seems like the type of trade everyone is going to be happy about once they cool off from expecting way more than they should have and get to see some of these kids perform. 

[Bob Sacamano]

For now, C

[ChiSox59]

Gave it a B here, but B- / C+ feels right to me. 

[WestEddy]

I gave it a B. A thing we complained about with Hahn was he was mesmerized by rankings. If you're trading for a top 10 guy, you're buying high. The good deals come from being able to scout the "just missed top 100" guys who will ascend with a bullet by July. 

I think they got a solid rotation guy, this year's closer or late innings guy they could trade at the break, future CF and another Berroa type arm to work with. Could start, could close.

The market's changed. Cease wasn't consistent enough to get 2 top 20 guys. 

[Balta1701]

48 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I might have agreed with you a few years ago but it seems like the MLB landscape has changed with teams still finalizing things well into March and real value moving and being signed still. 

I'm not sure the market would be any better in July than it is now. Teams now realize you get more utility making this trade to win now in March, than you do in summer. 

I've argued differently prior, so I'm probably just full of s%*#. But it sounded good. 

1. As of right now, I think the White Sox got more value for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly than they got for Cease. They got more potential and far-away depth for Cease, so this could turn around if their development guys are good, but the Lynn return is way closer to the big leagues and there's a lot of value in that. The market was absolutely better in July last year than what this trade returned.

2. The other part is what you expect from Dylan Cease. If Dylan Cease has an ERA of 2.2 for the Padres in July, and they're out of the race at the time, the Padres will get more trading Cease than they gave up now. If Dylan Cease has an ERA of 4.1 in July, then this would be a high value trade for him. Cease's 2023 dramatically reduced his value, and the White Sox weren't willing to risk another bad season against the value of a reward. The Padres were.

[FloydBannister1983]

1 hour ago, wegner said:

B+.....for the Padres

Nah.  I think Cease was overrated and was a one year wonder.  He regressed to his mean this past season.  I think that’s who he is.  IMHO.

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

1. As of right now, I think the White Sox got more value for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly than they got for Cease. They got more potential and far-away depth for Cease, so this could turn around if their development guys are good, but the Lynn return is way closer to the big leagues and there's a lot of value in that. The market was absolutely better in July last year than what this trade returned.

2. The other part is what you expect from Dylan Cease. If Dylan Cease has an ERA of 2.2 for the Padres in July, and they're out of the race at the time, the Padres will get more trading Cease than they gave up now. If Dylan Cease has an ERA of 4.1 in July, then this would be a high value trade for him. Cease's 2023 dramatically reduced his value, and the White Sox weren't willing to risk another bad season against the value of a reward. The Padres were.

That's a lot of ground covered. Not sure the Lynn and Kelly deal says much about this one and vice versa. In general, don't think there is much to say one deal is better or worse than the other at least in aggregate these deals should restock the farm.

Someone said at least this year we're going to be bad with an intriguing farm. Hey, soft bias of low expectations and all but at least Getz is pushing the rock the right way.

[caulfield12]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/dylan-cease-trade-scouting-reports-on-every-padres-white-sox-player-involved/

Baseball America much more optimistic...especially on Thorpe and Zavala.

[Chicago White Sox]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/dylan-cease-trade-scouting-reports-on-every-padres-white-sox-player-involved/

Baseball America much more optimistic...especially on Thorpe and Zavala.

Don’t let Balta see this!

[pmb0928]

I have learned that rankings arent everything. We thought we won the world series with Moncada and Kopech and Basabe. None of them even became a above average player. Maybe we relied more on our own evaluation than the so called experts.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

For those freaking out about Thorpe, a Padres fan said their their stadium gun has been off by 4-5 MPH this spring. That would make Thorpe's reported 88-89 MPH fast yesterday actually like 92-94. That's a lot more in like with what he's been.

Also another note on Thorpe, Fangraphs actually things Thorpe will be better then Cease in 2024 given a similar amount of IP. 

I don't think this trade was a fleecing, but I think it was realistic and fair. Of course we loved to dream on fleecing one of these clubs but the closer we got to Opening Day, the more risk involved in holding Cease until July. I'm satisfied with this move even if they decided to diversify their risk across 3 good prospects vs just getting 1 headliner and a couple of throw ins.

[WhiteSox2023]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/dylan-cease-trade-scouting-reports-on-every-padres-white-sox-player-involved/

Baseball America much more optimistic...especially on Thorpe and Zavala.

If you watch the video at this link, JJ Cooper of BA seems to disregard AJP’s report of Thorpe throwing 88 MPH as no big deal due to it being Spring Training and he’s likely not going at full force yet.  Cooper says he normally sits at 91-92.

Edited March 14 by WhiteSox2023

[South Side Hit Men]

James Fegan write up:

https://soxmachine.com/2024/03/white-sox-dylan-cease-trade-reaction/

 

 

Quote

Response from scouts across the league range from underwhelmed but not dismissive of the return, to teams that have computer models declaring this a great haul for the White Sox. With the mix of safety and projection present in this return, it’s assessing the futures of Iriarte and Zavala where the evaluations really swing.

 

 

Quote

Makeup will become a topic of discussion with Zavala, where some have questioned his focus, and other scouts have pointed out Zavala plays with swagger and attitude that people will either love or hate. That profile doesn’t always get as much grace as it should, and even scouts who brought up his makeup to me reminded that he’s still a teenager who should be given a chance to mature and develop.

Money quote:

Quote

In breaking down the potential of this entire return, it’s quick to lose perspective of the organizational failure that trading away the last two seasons of Cease pre-free agency years represents. The depth and development issues that forced the White Sox hand here, or simply made carrying Cease on the roster not worth it, need to be reversed for this trade to be worth it as well.

 

[SoCalChiSox]

44 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

For those freaking out about Thorpe, a Padres fan said their their stadium gun has been off by 4-5 MPH this spring. That would make Thorpe's reported 88-89 MPH fast yesterday actually like 92-94. That's a lot more in like with what he's been.

Also another note on Thorpe, Fangraphs actually things Thorpe will be better then Cease in 2024 given a similar amount of IP. 

I don't think this trade was a fleecing, but I think it was realistic and fair. Of course we loved to dream on fleecing one of these clubs but the closer we got to Opening Day, the more risk involved in holding Cease until July. I'm satisfied with this move even if they decided to diversify their risk across 3 good prospects vs just getting 1 headliner and a couple of throw ins.

In terms of SV, SD gave up 44 for 42, so I suppose in that respect it's "fair" but I would have expected a larger premium than just 2m. 

I think the main problem is the allocation of the 44m. I'd prefer more quality than quantity.  I'd rather have Snelling, Zavala and someone worth about 8m than Iriarte and the reliever. 

I would have preferred holding him till July and taking the injury risk as opposed to getting what we did. 

 

 

[Vote4Pedro]

It’s a homer F for me. I’ll be honest I don’t know anything about these guys other than what I’ve read throughout tonight but it’s Getz pulling the trigger on the deal so that automatically gives me pause. Everything that had been rumored leading up to the trade and what we ended up walking away with left me feeling they came up short in the deal. However I am happy the trade is finally over and the speculation can finally end on when they would move Cease. From what I’ve gathered on the interwebs…Thorpe is the get here out of this deal. The other pitchers is one who may or may not be slated for the bullpen, another 29 year old reliever and a 19 year old outfielder who while he may take walks is still in high A and has plenty left to prove. I really thought Getzy would stock up on a closer MLB ready positional player bat as part of a Cease deal versus more pitching. They have already acquired Eder, Bush, Nastrini, and Schuster to go along with Schultz. While I get you can never have enough pitching I was left unimpressed.  

[SoxAce]

B. Big Zavala fan.

[WhiteSox2023]

8 hours ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

I question whether Thorpe can pitch in MLB with his fastball velocity in the modern game. this isn't 1994, it's 2024. When was the last time you saw a pitcher like Brad Radke have success? 

Thorpe reminds me of Lance Broadway and Kyle McCulloch

Your comps are simply lazy and not even close to being similar to Thorpe.  You just threw out the names of two highly drafted Sox prospects that you remembered had lower velocity fastballs and busted out.

Lance Broadway had a 5.01 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 10.32 H/9, and 6.29 K/9 in the minors.

Kyle McCulloch had a 4.64 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 10.54 H/9, and 5.00 K/9 in the minors.

Basically, they were never even good in the minors and were destined for failure in the majors.  The Sox overdrafted these guys because JR preferred drafting college pitchers that were supposedly more of a finished product, more projectable to make the rotation, and had no signability issues.  He always preferred being safe in the draft and taking backend rotation guys over pitchers with the best pure stuff.

Meanwhile, Drew Thorpe currently has a 2.52 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 6.39 H/9, and 11.76 K/9 in the minors.  Not even close to the bums you mentioned.

Edited March 14 by WhiteSox2023