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2025 Rule 5 Thread


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Alexander Alberto, RHP, Rays
Signed out of the Dominican Republic in November 2019, Alberto has only reached High-A. He spent three seasons in the Florida Complex League, finally earning a promotion to Low-A in 2024. Alberto has been a tremendous performer the last two seasons across both levels of A-ball. Over 16 appearances in 2024 with Low-A Charleston, he pitched to a 1.59 ERA, striking out 23.3% of batters faced while walking 11.1%. Across 48.2 innings primarily in High-A this year, he struck out 30.6% of opposing hitters while walking 10%. His 2.87 FIP and 3.18 xFIP support his 2.59 ERA, and he generated ground balls at a rate of 54.4% in 2025. Where Alberto really stands out is with his pitch mix, as has a cache of desirable traits. He throws a true cut-fastball that sits 97-99 mph and touches 101.4 with just a hair under seven feet of extension on average. He commands his fastball well (56.1% zone rate) and generates high rates of whiffs in-zone. His primary secondary is a sweepy, mid-to-high-80s slider with a little drop and 5-10 inches of horizontal break, as Alberto shows the ability to manipulate the pitch. He shows true swing-and-miss stuff running a swinging-strike rate of 15.67% in 2025. His combination of whiffs and ground balls give him true versatility in getting outs.

 

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1 minute ago, WestEddy said:

Pallette to the Guards.

Can't stress enough how I hated not protecting him. Classic rule 5 pick profile. More importantly, a guy you invested millions of dollars and resources into and who mostly performed last year in a position of need and  you let him go for nothing while having an empty 40 man roster. Makes 0 sense. 

Hopefully we get him back. I'd prefer him to our own rule 5 pick I would think but with the empty (and bad) roster, not like it's an either/or.

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2 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Can't stress enough how I hated not protecting him. Classic rule 5 pick profile. More importantly, a guy you invested millions of dollars and resources into and who mostly performed last year in a position of need and  you let him go for nothing while having an empty 40 man roster. Makes 0 sense. 

Hopefully we get him back. I'd prefer him to our own rule 5 pick I would think but with the empty (and bad) roster, not like it's an either/or.

You also have better roster flexibility with someone like Palette who would have options and could move up & down.  I just don’t get the logic here.

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FanGraphs on Paez:

 

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Paez is among the most entertaining pitchers in the minors, a whippy-armed lower slot guy with an incredibly fast arm action and great secondary stuff. The undersized, low-three-quarters righty began his pro career as a sinker merchant with precocious command. Then in 2024, his secondary pitches and velocity both took a meaningful leap compared to 2023 and Paez retained his incredible command in the process. As a 20-year-old swingman working up to five innings per outing, Paez pitched 96.2 innings and posted a 10.52 K/9, 1.12 BB/9, and 3.17 ERA at (mostly) High-A.

Paez's athleticism is evident in his delivery and in some of his data. He's a wispy 6-foot-1 but generates six feet, nine inches of extension because of his enormous hop down the mound. For all of the effort with which Paez throws, he doesn't miss his spot very often. He'll bury his sinker in locations that make it impossible to elevate, run it back over the corner of the plate for a strike, use it to set up his excellent changeup with precise arm-side location, and occasionally run his heater up the ladder, where it can slip past certain hitters' bats because of its angle. Paez's slider, which spins it at 2,700-2,800 rpm on average, was four ticks harder in 2024 than in 2023, and averaged 82 mph. His ability to attack with lateral fastball/slider divergence and then pull the string with his changeup is very advanced and special.

Early in 2025, his release point changed. It rose about four inches and detracted from Paez's fastball's effectiveness during his first couple of starts before he was shut down with what the team is calling a calf strain. He seems to have added a cutter as well. These are key variables to watch out for when Paez returns. Though he was an offseason Top 100 inclusion because of his freaky command, these seemingly detrimental changes and the injury create risk and volatility, and force a little slide. If Paez can return and pitch effectively throughout the second half of the season, he should be added to the 40-man in the offseason and debut in 2026.

 

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55 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Pallette to the Guards.

For whatever reason, the regime didn't think much of Palette.  First to drop him from starting so quickly,  and then with as many awful pitchers as we rostered, to not call him up late last year, and then to not protect him with 5 roster slots to spare.

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I really like the Alberto pick. Seems like a guy they will be able to protect all year. I'm not sure how they are going to manage two guys in the pen again this year, especially with Paez. He's interesting but seems like the lack of innings and experience above High-A could be a problem.

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