I'm just going to throw out an idea for discussion that's been percolating in my head for a while.
1. I think the Sox are still going to be in the running for Carlos Rodon on something like a 3 year deal. Maybe with an opt-out after 2 years?
The Sox need Rodon, who was their best pitcher in the first half of last year. Not only was he their best pitcher -- even better than a great year from Lynn -- but he's a lefty, which the Sox don't have in the rotation.
The Sox know Rodon better than anyone else. They won't do this is they know his shoulder is fried. But I think it was just innings fatigue. I expect he'll bounce back this year and be able to sustain his velocity for longer.
Rodon knows and must like Ethan Katz, because he turned his career around in just one offseason. Does Rodon want to ditch that and go elsewhere? To a club that may or may not be a contender?
I think Rodon still has unfinished business with the White Sox. I think he wants to win a Championship, and if he had his choice, the Sox would be the team he would want to win with.
The reason the Sox haven't already signed Rodon is because his market isn't set yet. The Sox are not going to set the market for Rodon, but they might meet whatever the market turns out to be.
2. If Rodon returns, and Kopech is added to the rotation, the Sox will have 6 starters. Why not use all 6?
I haven't done a deep dive into the effectiveness or lack thereof of 6-man rotations. I think most teams don't use them because they don't have enough pitching depth and want to use their top guys more often. Didn't Milwaukee use a 6-man rotation last year?
What happened last year was that by the time the playoffs rolled around, our starting staff was cooked. Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Rodon all got torched. Lynn had the knee issue. Rodon lost his velocity. Cease had the strength, but was his usual head case. And Houston was the worst matchup because of how well they handle fastballs, and how hard they are to strike out.
I think this year will be better, but I still think pitchers won't be ready for 200 innings. (Can you believe the 2005 Sox had 4 starters who went over 200 innings?) So my thought is why not go to a 6-man rotation to ease the burden over the season and make the starters fresher for the playoffs.
If you go to a 6-man, you can also keep Keuchel to see if he has a bounce-back year. His 4th year doesn't vest unless he pitches 320 innings across 2021-2022, or 160 innings in 2022. He pitched 162 innings in 2021, so you have to keep him under 158 in 2022. With a 6-man rotation, you can easily do that.
The other reason to go to a 6-man is because Michael Kopech isn't ready for a full season as a starter. The Sox need to keep his innings down. How do you do that without shutting him down, and then starting him back up close to the playoffs? A 6-man rotation is one way to do it and still provide him steady work.
The way I would order them would be: Lynn, Rodon, Giolito, Cease, Keuchel, Kopech. Kopech isn't the 6th best pitcher, but he's the one who can pitch the fewest innings, so that's why I would put him at the back. Plus, he's a huge contrast with Keuchel.
Lastly, a 6-man can obviously become a 5-man for a stretch if anyone gets dinged up and has to go on the IL. You don't have to use spot starters like Lopez nearly as much.
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I think the chances of this happening are low. Rodon has to sign, and the Sox have to think outside the box to go with a 6-man rotation. But I still think it's a good idea. The Sox do not need to burn out their starters to win the AL Central again, no matter what the Tigers have done. They should be thinking postseason from day 1.
Anyway, that's my thought.