Alright, let’s go through Conforto’s market team by team with any connection to him. IMO, there are four primary factors to consider: 1) Payroll / CBT implications | 2) positional need | 3) readiness to win | 4) local vaccine mandates.
Yankees: 1) ~$4M away from 2nd CBT threshold | 2) already have Judge, Gallo, & Stanton to cover RF, LF, & DH | 3) championship roster already in place | 4) local vaccine mandate poses significant risk | Conclusion: NOT HAPPENING
Red Sox: 1) ~$19M away from 1st CBT threshold | 2) upgrade possible but already have four guys to cover three OF spots | 3) ~2 wins away from 6th playoff spot per FG | 4) Canada vaccine mandate poses some risk | Conclusion: POSSIBLE THREAT
Blue Jays: 1) ~$49M away from 1st CBT threshold | 2) already have Springer, Gurriel, Hernandez, & Grichuk to cover OF / DH | 3) championship roster already in place | 4) local vaccine mandate could be a deal killer | Conclusion: NOT HAPPENING
Guardians: 1) No CBT concerns / payroll down ~$15M vs. 2021 | 2) could use OF help / LH power | 3) ~6 wins away from 6th playoff spot per FG | 4) vaccine concerns are minimal | Conclusion: POSSIBLE THREAT
Diamondbacks: 1) No CBT concerns / payroll down ~$20M vs. 2021 | 2) upgrade possible, but already have multiple guys to cover OF / DH | 3) 2nd lowest projected win total per FG | 4) vaccine concerns are minimal | Conclusion: NOT HAPPENING
Padres: 1) ~$9M away from 1st CBT threshold | 2) could desperately use a corner OF upgrade over Myers or Profar | 3) championship roster already in place | 4) vaccine concerns are minimal | 5) POSSIBLE THREAT
Rangers: 1) No CBT concerns / payroll down ~$20M vs recent trends | 2) have options but could use a corner OF upgrade | 3) ~10 wins away from 6th playoff spot per FG | 4) vaccine concerns are minimal | Conclusion: POSSIBLE THREAT
That’s four possible threats for Conforto, but I think Cleveland is a massive long shot given their ownership group’s past spending habits. Boston could use an upgrade, but I’m not convinced they will want to blow their remaining CBT space on Conforto when they have other decent options. As for the Rangers, the big question to me is do they want to lock in another $20M per year in long-term commitments when competing in 2022 is very unlikely.
Ultimately it’s the Padres that scare me the most. They could really use an OF upgrade, the Tatis injury puts more pressure on their offense, and they’ve shown they’re willing to spend big & go into the tax to maximize their chances of winning.