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The problem is that it's hard to predict any specific result. However I think there's some patterns to the two. For the Seattle trade, if Getz made the same deal a lot, he'd come out a winner most of the time. Giving up relievers is generally a strategy that returns a lot of value for a rebuilding team. Giving away years of control on a cheap reliever is a way to restock a team. Trading away guys whose elbows are starting to act up already generally is a smart strategy. If Getz made this move often, it seems likely that he would win more of these than he lost. For the Arizona trade, Getz gave up very young pitching for an OF who fits into the rotation and fills an immediate need but with something of a limited ceiling. However, pitching is so highly prized and highly sought after that there's a lot of risk in giving up young pitching. Maybe you do this deal 5 times and it works fine the first 4, you get two actual ballplayers out of those first deals, but then you give up a young pitcher who turns into a true ace 3 years down the line and you say "oh we should stop doing that".

James Fegan. Finally something interesting to talk about with a potential Cease trade on the backburner. Then there’s the stadium project at least.

Not accurate to compare the Bauer, Clevinger situations with Tim. Dozens if not hundreds of players in every professional sport leagues have marital issues / infidelities. Far less have domestic violence accusations with filed criminal complaints. Tim’s on field production was very strong until the injuries and some would say the marital issues of the last season and a half.

Mena only got pushed down the list because of, hilariously, Rick Hahn's deadline acquisitions that Getz didn't get on development plans. Mena had good strikeout numbers at every level while being super young and with his fastball being the pitch I hear the most concern about. If Arizona gets him to up his fastball, then the trade could get ugly real fast. Of course, he could also bust and Fletcher could turn into a starting RF for six years. But give me the young starter who doesn't rely on overpowering hitters over the older .BAPIP merchant.

I still think they should bring him back if he’ll go for like $5M.

The talking heads were phenomenal live. The other one off the top of my head that was drastically better live was the Ramones. They played everything at 3 times the normal speed. It was something like 25 songs in 40 minutes the last time I saw the. Throw in Blondie and there's nothing better than the old CBGBs lineup.

Anything that wasn't an obvious blunder is a win for Getz. Swapping some roster names that we'll forget about in a couple years for newer names we'll forget about will raise the mood of Sox fans beyond freezing to chilly. We can spend the first fifty losses learning what we don't like about the new guys and the next fifty losses complaining about the usual stuff.

We get it. You like the Fletcher trade.

Getz being wrong about White Sox player development is how we got here. Edit: Anyway, I fat thumbed the poll and meant to hit AZ and Getz. Seattle trade is a good one.

Ever been to or seen Mt. Rushmore

I saw them at the aragon brawlroom. It was either 1980 or 1981.

These really aren’t comparable situations at all, especially Bauer. TAs issues getting signed are because he was a god awful player last season and isn’t really a SS.

Conquistador Procol Harum live is one of my all time favorites. It's epic.

Burnin' Down the House live on the Stop Making Sense album. The Talking Heads.

I’d think he’d get a non-roster invite offer from some teams that need a second baseman, similar to a Kevin Pillar type contract. Make the team, get 3 mil. Then it’s up to him to play his way into the lineup everyday.

PECOTA has the Sox at 65.5 wins. Glad they aren't wasting a year.

It's not just "If Mena turns into anything special" to me, it's the philosophy of the deal itself. This is where Hahn and Williams went haywire. Ok, one of like 47 places they screwed up, but a big one. For a long, long, long time it was "oh it's ok, we can make a deal like this, we give guys up and they never turn into anything." it's ok to give up Poreda, Richard, Sweeney, Olivo, Hudson, Holmberg, De Los Santos, Masset - no one there was a franchise killing player, so it was constantly ok to give up guys to supplement the big league roster - for years. Then all of a sudden, in the space of 2 years, the White Sox gave up Semien, Bassitt, and Tatis (Montas could get thrown here too). Any one of those first deals you could say "oh this is fine, we didn't give up a guy who killed us and we got a tolerable baseball player out of it so it was a win, no problem let's keep doing this". Then, it imploded and wrecked the franchise for years. This one might work out fine, but you do this type of deal enough and you're playing with fire. The odds of any particular deal blowing up horribly are low, but if you do enough deals of the same sort, they can.

If Mena turns into anything special, it's a big loss for Getz. There's certainly reason to have doubts about Mena's FB and the trade could turn out to be a wash, but I do think there is more potential in it biting the Sox in the ass than for AZ.

Completely agree, the Seattle trade was great. A loser team has no use for a good reliever outside of trading them. The Arizona trade, that's the type of deal I would have been completely happy with going into 2021 when there was a need for that kind of player to fill a hole on a contending team. For the 2024 White Sox, it makes no sense to me. Especially when you consider we have no major league pitching and need all the bullets we can get since we wont be signing any high priced FA pitchers.

This is exactly why I'd have no problem making Crochet the closer, and if he pitches well move him in July.

I like Nelson, but looks like im in the minority. Yeah hes negative, but hes justified to feel that way and echoes the fanbases frustrations well.

And with the removal of shifts, which everyone seems to have forgotten about, good LH handed hitters should be priorities. Fletcher does seem to have a good BAA RHP. Can't hit LHP and K's a lot but OK walk rate. He isn't even close to being fast but we've heard he has great jumps, reads, routes.Maybe his strengths are good enough to be a solid strong side of a platoon guy. Remember the Sox franchise has the worst or least productive LH hitters in the history of baseball. Left handed savages are still needed but hopefully both teams benefit from this trade .

I think the CHW and SEA trade is a win-win for both clubs. Seattle didn’t give up anyone highly touted and received a young closer who has 5 years of control and if he proves to not be a fluke, would be a steal. ARI easy win on receiving a 21 year old starter in the upper minors for an older OF who may be more of a 4th outfielder type.

Predictions are as of 2/6. The best 2/5 Over and Under Odds among the five linked are included below. PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus) https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ FanGraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings Current Over Under Odds https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/mlb/baseball-win-totals/ While each of the three WAR calculations and projections have merit (Baseball Reference being the third), I've found Baseball Prospectus to be the best of the three in terms of win loss projections based on their system and the fact they spend more time on the playing time allotment for their paid audience. FanGraphs will flesh out their run differential and perhaps a more refined W/L prediction before Spring Training. PECOTA has all six divisions with a prohibitive favorite (over 50% probability), with four of the six over 67%. AL East 57.8% Yankees and 52.4% Saint Louis the two outliers. Half of MLB teams start the season with an under 5% probability of winning the division. Nine teams have a pathetic 0.0% (White Sox, Oakland, Washington and Colorado) through 1.2% probability. Signings of the top remaining free agents (Snell 3.3, Montgomery 3.2, Chapman 2.6, Bellinger 2.4, Soler 1.9, Ryu 1.8, Anderson 1.6) will impact additional wins along the margins along with injuries or any remaining significant trades of Cease or others. American League East ( + 60 > .500) ( + 44 > .500) New York Yankees 94-68 .583 57.8% Divsion + 143 RD 89-73 .551 Over 93 -110 Caesars Under 93 1/2 -108 FanDuel Toronto Blue Jays 88-74 .544 16.0% Division + 81 RD 85-77 .524 Over 86 1/2 -110 BetMGM Under 88 -110 Caesars Baltimore Orioles 87-75 .535 12.1% Division + 66 RD 86-76 .529 Over 90 1/2 - 120 DraftKings Under 91 1/2 +105 bet365 Tampa Bay Rays 86-76 .532 12.6% Division + 63 RD 86-76 .532 Over 84 - 110 Caesars Under 85 1/2 -110 BetMGM Boston Red Sox 80-82 .493 1.5% Division + 7 RD 81-81 .502 Over 79 - 110 Caesars Under 80 1/2 -110 DraftKings American League Central ( - 48 < .500) ( - 34 < .500) Minnesota Twins 88-74 .544 67.9% Division + 57 RD 84-78 .521 Over 85 1/2 -110 BetMGM Under 86 1/2 +100 DraftKings Cleveland Guardians 83-79 .515 28.8% Division + 16 RD 80-82 .493 Over 76 1/2 -110 BetMGM Under 78 -110 Caesars Detroit Tigers 75-87 .460 2.8% Division - 60 RD 79-83 .487 Over 79 1/2 -130 bet365 Under 81 -110 Caesars Kansas City Royals 70-92 .433 0.5% Division - 108 RD 75-87 .466 Over 72 1/2 -115 FanDuel Under 73 1/2 +1- Draft Kings Chicago White Sox 65-97 .404 0.0% Division - 152 RD 68-94 .418 Over 62 1/2 -110 BetMGM Under 63 1/2 -110 FanDuel American League West ( + 2 > .500) ( + 8 > .500) Houston Astros 95-67 .586 75.8% Division + 134 RD 91-71 .560 Over 92 -110 Caesars Under 92 1/2 -105 DraftKings Texas Rangers 86-76 .532 13.8% Division + 52 RD 82-80 .506 Over 89 -110 Caesars Under 89 1/2 -110 BetMGM Seattle Mariners 85-77 .523 10.2% Division + 40 RD 86-76 .533 Over 86 1/2 -105 BetMGM Under 87 -110 Caesars Los Angeles Angels 75-87 .460 0.2% Division - 59 RD 78-84 .484 Over 71 1/2 -110 DraftKings Under 71 1/2 +100 bet365 Oakland Athletics 65-97 .400 0.0% Division - 152 RD 71-91 .440 Over 56 1/2 +100 DraftKings Under 57 1/2 -110 FanDuel National League East ( + 4 > .500) ( + 10 > .500) Atlanta N. L. Team 101-61 .622 93.3% Division + 184 RD 97-65 .598 Over 100 1/2 -115 DraftKings Under 101 1/2 -105 FanDuel Philadelphia Phillies 84-78 .520 2.5% Division + 81 RD 85-77 .524 Over 89 1/2 -110 Caesars Under 90 1/2 -104 bet365 New York Mets 84-78 .535 3.2% Division + 24 RD 81-81 .500 Over 82 -110 Caesars Under 82 1/2 +100 DraftKings Miami Marlins 80-82 .496 1.0% Division - 8 RD 81-81 .500 Over 77 -110 Caesars Under 78 1/2 +100 bet365 Washington Nationals 58-104 .357 0.0% Division -124 RD 66-96 .405 Over 66 1/2 -105 DraftKing Under 67 -110 Caesars National League Central ( - 18 < .500) ( - 10 < .500) Saint Louis Cardinals 86-76 .528 5 52.4% Division + 32 RD 83-79 .515 Over 84 1/2 -110 DraftKings Under 86 1/2 -110 FanDuel Chicago Cubs 80-82 .495 20.2% Division - 17 RD 81-81 .497 Over 83 1/2 -110 FanDuel Under 84 1/2 +100 DraftKings Milwaukee Brewers 79-83 .486 12.7% Division - 25 RD 80-82 .495 Over 75 1/2 -110 FanDuel Under 76 1/2 -115 DraftKings Cincinnati Reds 78-84 .483 12.5% Division - 34 RD 79-83 .486 Over 82 1/2 +100 DraftKings Under 82 1/2 -110 FanDuel Pittsburgh Pirates 73-89 .451 2.2% Division - 85 RD 77-85 .474 Over 73 1/2 -105 DraftKings Under 74 1/2 -110 FanDuel National League West ( + 0 > .500) ( + 2 > .500) Los Angeles Dodgers 101-61 .624 94.6% Division + 194 RD 93-79 .575 Over 103 1/2 -120 DraftKings Under 104 1/2 -110 bet365 Arizona Diamondbacks 85-77 .526 3.4% Division + 43 RD 84-78 .516 Over 83 1/2 -110 FanDuel Under 84 1/2 -110 Caesars San Francisco Giants 81-81 .500 1.2% Division - 3 RD 79-83 .488 Over 81 1/2 +100 Draft Kings Under 82 -110 Caesars San Diego Padres 80-82 .492 0.8% Division - 11 RD 81-81 .500 Over 81 1/2 -105 DrafKings Under 81 1/2 -106 FanDuel Colorado Rockies 58-104 .358 0.0% Division - 221 RD 64-98 .393 Over 59 1/2 -130 bet365 Under 60 1/2 +100 DraftKings Still think the Sox at over 62 1/2 wins give you a decent margin of safety, with the trade of Santos and likely trade of Cease and perhaps others, they may be closer than I'd wish. Based in the PECOTA projections and listed odds, the best bets in terms of a blended current PECOTA and FanGraphs projections are as follows: Best Bets Over 56 1/2 + 100 Oakland A's DraftKings - Looks like the best bet at this juncture, but Fisher is a wild card. Still don't see them dumping beyond July trades. Under 67 -110 Washington Nationals Caesars - Washington is really going to suck ass this season, and the rest of the division is decent plus, so a likely winner, though FanGraphs thinks the total is in line with their current 66 win predication. Likely now, but concerns with ownership dumping further the rest of the year Over 76 1/2 -110 Cleveland Guardians BetMGM - Cleveland's ownership gives me pause they may dump Bieber and other pieces. Think they will continue to add before OD and possibly in July, shrinking the margin of safety Under 90 1/2 -104 Philadelphia Phillies bet365 Under 84 1/2 + 100 Chicago Cubs DraftKings

TLR - Obvious Jerry - Kneecapped everything Hahn - Even with his budget, made bad moves Getz - If we're grading 2020 - 2023, it would have been nice to have some player development!

TA is bad but Rosario isn’t good either. He had one really good year defensively in 2022 and has been below average otherwise. i don’t know why character concerns holding TA back is so controversial with some of you that you need to prop up ancient guys like Andrus or second division starters at best like Rosario. TA sucked last year but he’d still be a White Sox if he didn’t have personal struggles, or someone would’ve taken a flyer on him by now as a second baseman. What TA went through last year absolutely factors in if a team thinks he’ll rebound and provide good production, and it matters to their clubhouse culture. He’s not worth the gamble right now.

This thread is beautiful. The colors, formatting. I love it. Good work once again my friend! Only thing it's missing is the trademark YouTube video/song

Leury Lynn Kopech Keuchel Grifol Montoyo Benintendi Kelly

Sox can still sign Merrifield Taylor + 6-7 more $2-3 million vets and still win the Central lol. Should have saved the Fedde money for now. Niche opportunity to outspend front end of market with other four Central teams now tapped out financially.???

There are tons of weak infielders still available for teams that need them. Looking at the list, I see Longoria, Brandon Crawford, k*** Hernandez, Jean Segura, Eduardo Escobar, Amed Rosario, Andrus, Didi Gregorius, on top of notable actual good player Matt Chapman. A lot of these guys have clearly been hoping for big league contracts and at this point they're probably going to get scooped up as NRIs. Anderson is in no way unusual here, and that's entirely coming off of his negative WAR season last year.

Well, except for the Aroldis Chapman exception.

@almagest makes a great point. I think it's scale. Criminal charges after being manipulated into choking someone until they pass out seems like a different scale. But this may be where MLB teams are drawing the line. Multiple domestic situations might be too toxic for modern media driven entertainment.

There might have been a few hit songs that were only heard live. Stay and Runnin Back To Saskatoon come to mind. Conquistador live release was much better and a pretty big hit. The Who Shakin All Over was live only. American Woman Live At The Paramount is amazing. Maybe I'm Amazed?

By the time Tim saw his career flame out it was too late. His demos don't always inspire second chances like a guaranteed deal. Hope he is working out somewhere.

Consistent with the soon to be 1/44 (2.27%) probability of a White Sox winning a World Series under Jerry at the end of this season. The Sox would have had over 50% better odds winning a second World Series if the World Series was determined via lottery ball selection instead of on field performance.

I grabbed the over of 63.5 at +100 odds on DK earlier. It's not going to be pretty but 64 wins is all it takes.

What is even worse is, the Sox and A’s haven’t done a $100 million contract, but look at this list: Team’s that haven’t given a $150 million -White Sox -A’s -Guardians ($124 million) -Cardinals ($130 million) -Pirates ($106 million) This is even worse. Team’s that have not given out a $200 million: -White Sox -A’s -Guardians ($124 million) -Cardinals ($130 million) -Pirates ($106 million) -Blue Jays ($150 million) -Orioles ($161 million) -Ray’s ($182 million) -Astros ($151 million) -Brewers ($188 million) -Cubs ($184 million) The competitive bar has by far moved past $100 million contracts. The competitive bar is now $200 million contracts. And the Sox record contract is 37.5% of the competitive bar.

Getz won both. The two easiest ways to win a trade in 2024: 1. Be the buyer in a fire sale. 2. Be the buyer of pre-arb talent from competitive teams that can't afford anything but immediate success from their prospects at the big league level.

If Getz and Barfield are both that wrong on this one, they should be fired. I think the smart money on how both of the trades will wind up years from now, is a bunch of nothing for a bunch of nothing. I guess I just like an OF who can catch the ball, and actually take a walk. All these way sub .300 OBP guys he's been acquiring make for very boring baseball games.

Give Hahn Lite some cred for finding OF bodies. Gavin is going to rock in the IL.

I think Getz wins both. The only way the Santos trade is bad is if he turns dominant. I can't see it, plus arm troubles. Both Getz and Barfield would have to be wrong for the AZ trade not to work.

This couldn't be further from the truth. Wrigleyville is a haven of 20 somethings year round. And Goose Island lost their lease because the property was sold and the building torn down to make way for the huge development that went up there with the Lucky Strike & Shake Shack in it.

Part of me is really annoyed by this, the other part just thinks that even if we did sign a nine figure deal, it would just be awful like our eight figure deals... just bigger.

Oh well. Then he'll suck, and it's a bad trade. I like the trade, and think we have our All-Star RF for the next 6+ years. Every time some dour guy shakes his tiny elf fist in the air and demands I be unhappy about a Sox move, only makes me like it more.

You only get on these lists by being terrible the previous year. ?

Not sure how anyone can say with a straight face that the Sox have a surplus of pitching. Teams with a surplus of pitching, if something like that even exists, either have top 5 farm systems or are perennial world series contenders. The Sox are neither of those things.

Also, will share the Ramos write-up because I absolutely love the kid and Law has gotten me even more hyped:

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2024/2/1/24055811/2024-seattle-mariners-farm-system-overview-tier-4-emerson-hancock-ryan-bliss-samad-taylor DeLoach is 17 and Berroa 15 in Mariners farm rankings by Lookout Landing. Article written Feb 1,2024 with decent writeups on both.

@caulfield12 what do you think of this move? What else do you think you guys should do before ST?

Every time I see this thread bumped, I think of Michael Scott finding out Toby is back.