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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/23/2019 in all areas

  1. 3 points
    Is this based on you watching him regularly? Because if it is, I could buy it. But there are some sample issues with that argument if you’re just going off the numbers. His CF numbers have been much worse the past two seasons as you say, but 2017 was a partial season for him, and he only actually played 187 innings in CF last year. His numbers in LF over that same span are actually quite good. In 2018, his sample in LF is about four times larger. It sounds like you’re looking at the Inside Edge stuff for part of this. Those 50/50 plays you referred to β€” he only had six total chances at them last year, and only one of those came in CF. Not good that he didn’t make many of those plays, but clearly non-conclusive if you’re trying to predict future performance I don’t think there’s enough data to suggest a precipitous decline in his ability to play the OF. I think that the closest answer to the truth is probably in the Dodgers usage of him, which is increasingly as a corner guy. It really seems like he is a guy who is probably an above average corner outfielder and a below average, but acceptable center fielder.
  2. 3 points
    When the Sox are good, you don't want Joc Pederson in CF with Eloy and another guy with not much range making out your OF. But for now, Pederson in CF wins more games than Engel in CF because Engel cannot hit. Pederson is fine in CF in 2019 when you aren't contending, but if he costs anything, as much as I have always coveted him, it really makes little sense. If you can get him for basically nothing, fine. It will make the team better.
  3. 3 points
    Yes the draft pick thing is a problem. The following players were drafted after Zack Collins in 2016: Alex Kiriloff, Forrest Whitley. These guys were taken after Burdi: Carter Kieboom, Taylor Trammell, Bo Bichette and Jesus Luzardo. There is a common trend among all of these guys. These guys were all taken after Jake Burger: Shane Baz, Heliot Ramos, DL Hall, Drew Waters, JB Bukauskus, Nate Pearson. The biggest problem with that year though was that Keston Hiura and Jo Adell were the two picks before Burger. They just weren't bad enough. The Sox refusal to choose HS players in the early rounds is unfortunate and lowers the ceiling on the rebuild a bit however.
  4. 3 points
    Lol hey all of a sudden everyone thinks we can compete with the slowest CF and outfield in baseball and no starting pitching i'm cool with that . But I'll be waiting with the big I told you so after the season. Besides it mostly new posters, I got some support from Balta but once Rabbit said Joc was a good CF everybody lined up to kiss his ass and isn't using anything but but speed doesn't matter what about reads and jumps which is what all the slow guys say. Or the old but so and so was good and he wasnt a barn burner. Wonderful I never said speed makes you great or lack or it makes you suck. I'm just saying speed is the best thing you can have as a CF and that shouldn't even be a debate ask Mickey Mantle Willie Mays, Mike Trout , Engel, Buxton and all the guys with blazing speed who were and are considered top notch CFers who far outnumber the slow one's who are considered good. And there's no doubt at all that Pederson is slow. I used sprint speed by statcast to measure speed and everyone is measured the same way by it so I don't see how disputing it's accuracy can help the slow guys.So them I used statcast Catch Probability that takes into consideration things like speed but also reads and jumps an OF gets and still Pederson sucked in a year where he played mostly LF and now he's going to play CF ? I really don't know what else to say.It's not like anyone came forth with better stats to support their claims. All I got was mostly trying to discredit my methods without backing up their claims. I don't think I'm dieing at all. I'm outnumbered by people drinking the koolaid and sick of losing but that's Ok it's been fun.
  5. 2 points
    I disagree. As of this second, the Sox are in no position to move anybody who might have a future impact, whether it's Fulmer or Bush. There's just no reason to. Get rid of Delmonico, no problem. But no reason to move players who could improve, let alone someone like Bush who is a high ceiling prospect, to help a team that won 62 games last year. 2019 is going to be a bad year with or without Pederson. Now, sign Machado? Then you can also pick up a starter, get Joc and try to compete for a WC spot this year if everything goes right. But as of now, I would be pissed if the Sox get Pederson to patrol CF on a team without Machado or Harper. Might as well hold on to any prospect and hope they improve.
  6. 2 points
    If it's contingent on trading Pederson, why would a Pederson trade come after? But before or after, he's bound to be right.
  7. 2 points
    I’m going to guess these will be the guys in the 16 to 30 range: RH Pitcher (6): Ian Hamilton, Tyler Johnson, Jordan Stephens, Jimmy Lambert, Jonathon Stiever, Spencer Adams LH Pitcher (3): Kodi Medeiros, Konner Pilkington, Bernardo Flores Corner Infield (2): Gavin Sheets, Bryce Bush Middle Infield (3): Laz Rivera, Luis Curbelo, Lenyn Sosa Catcher (1): Seby Zavala
  8. 2 points
  9. 1 point
    This is Rankings Week for FutureSox! Here is the list of events: TUE: Just Missed WED: Prospects #16-30 with capsules THUR: FULL TOP 30 LIST with capsules for #1-15 FRI: Writer Roundtable (personal highs and lows) So let's start with the prospects who Just Missed the Top 30. Any names surprise you here?
  10. 1 point
  11. 1 point
    I can't believe I agree with caulfield. Guys Pederson is 26, Markakis is 35. How many times do sox have to get burned assuming older players can repeat past performance before we stop believing the marginal FAs will be any sort of improvement?
  12. 1 point
    Question wasn't for me, but I'll answer my own opinion. Contending for division -- as early as 2020, but realistically 2021 or 2022. Contending for a pennant -- as early as 2021, but realistically 2022 or 2023. Contending for a WS -- as early as 2022, but realistically 2023 - 2024. Obviously many, many moves can be made that change that timeline. Also development of our younger guys play an important role of moving this up or back. General feeling this: Kopech, Cease, Dunning, etc. have talent, but like any other rookie pitchers or batters will have their flashes of greatness and learning experiences. They will also have to build up innings and not fizzle as the year wears on. Then build up playoff experience. To me, 2020 is the learning experience, 2021 is putting it together, but when your arms fizzle down the end (think of Braves this year or Astros on their first year of making playoffs). 2022 is when you probably have expectations of winning an ALDS and where I'd be disappointed if we didn't. 2023 is when I start having WS expectations if all goes to plan. Again, this all can shift up a year or back a year based on injuries and setbacks. AKA -- kopech loses a year... if dunning ends up losing a year this year .... burdi losing a year ... adolfo losing half a year .... Robert losing half a year .... Hansen losing his control and prospect status .... fulmer being a bust ..... burger losing almost 2 years... This list will continue to grow. Maybe losing out on Macahdo and Harper.. etc. etc. etc. A successful (AND REALISITIC) rebuild (IN MY OPINION) would be this: 2019: Acquire Machado to 8-9 year contract ... I actually want him at ages 34/35. I think he's a pure bat ala Beltre, Pujols, MIggy. Don't think ages 34/35 will blow you away, but think he'll still be good. Acquire major league talent on a 2-3 year basis that pushes the young guys. learning experiences, no major injuries, giolito takes a nice step forward. lopez continues to progress. Get a good, healthy year out of Rodon to where we either extend or trade him. Moncada takes a giant step forward to being a fringe all-star each year. 77 wins and competitive through the whole year. 2020: Bring up Madrigal. Have one of our OF prospects force the issue and be up by June. Cease up. Kopech back. Have our top prospects learn at the MLB level. 82-85 wins. Be in the hunt through August. 2021: Build build build upon the last year. bring in TOP TALENT supplemental FA to fill holes of prospects that didn't pan out. spend spend spend. 90-94 wins. Win the division. win 1-2 playoff games 2022: Build upon the last year. no slump after making the postseason. 90-95 wins. Win ALDS series. compete in ALCS .. winning at least 2 games. 2023-2025: Make or win the World Series or Bust.
  13. 1 point
  14. 1 point
    Isn't he kind of a big dude? I feel like he will be shifting to a corner spot soon (heck, the Dodgers did it last year in favor of playing a 1B in CF).
  15. 1 point
    I think in 2020 they realistically contend. It's not even about that for me. Adam Engel shouldn't be playing regularly for the Sox even if they aren't expected to be good. In 2017, he posted a wRC+ of 38. That number improved to 68 last season. He's not a major leaguer.
  16. 1 point
    The Sox have no #1 and no # 2 starter. If they wanted to compete they would have gone out and got a 1 or 2 starter. Nova isn't that. If you want to pin all your hopes and dreams on Giolito, Lopez, Rodon Covey Banuelos and go right ahead but if you think its only me who just doesn't get it you are sorely mistaken and you are in for a huge disappointment.
  17. 1 point
    @bmags there are dozens of you! Dozens!
  18. 1 point
    Probably not for only two years of control on Pederson. I'd do something like the rumored asking price of Bummer/Bush though for sure.
  19. 1 point
    You literally told me that I couldn't look at the fact that Joc's defensive numbers over the past 4 years have pointed straight down and said that only the average counts, and now you're telling him "It just doesn't tell the complete story about the players". Well fine, tell the complete story of the players, because you're deliberately leaving a lot out. Joc Pederson's offense wiped out his weak defense last year, but he failed to do so in 2017, that year he hit .212 with a .738 OPS and was bad enough that he was comparable to Engel overall. That's part of the story of this player too. Tell his story - he's no longer fine in CF, he's trended downwards substantially since 2016 but you say that you can only draw a flat line across that and care about the average, which blocks out part of the story. If he hits like he did in 2018 that's good enough to overcome it, but if he hits like he did in 2017 it does not, and if you put him out there against too many LHP then his overall offense is going to look really bad, so you better be ok with paying the price in trade for a guy who needs a platoon partner. Your blunt statement "there's literally no arguing on that point" is true, as long as you "don't tell the complete story about the players".
  20. 1 point
    You’re still not getting it. Nobody has an issue with your speed data. It just doesn’t tell the complete story about the players. Where you run into problems is when you disregard the fact that when you play a good defensive CF who is one of the worst offensive players in MLB, you’re costing your team wins. People are simply saying that Joc’s offensive production and CF shortcomings far outweighs Engel’s defensive production and offensive shortcomings. And it’s not even close. Last, Joc is fine in CF. He’s not a top of the league CF by any means and he doesn’t need to be. You can deal with that given his very good offensive production. Engel is a good CF. But remember, his offensive production is so bad it literally wipes out anything he does for the team defensively. He’s costing the team wins, especially when comparing him to Joc. There’s literally no arguing that point.
  21. 1 point
    I understand prospect growth isn't linear. If it was any other year but the Moncada Harper year the Sox would have no interest in speeding up the rebuild and if we don't get Machado neither would most of our posters. As you said long term pieces are the key but that's not what Pederson and every other guy we acquired so far is. AT the beginning of the rebuild whenever Machado or Harper were brought up we'd get a resounding no way the Sox go after them. Now all of a sudden everyone thinks getting Machado means we can win the division in the next 2 years. This will only be the 3rd year of the rebuild. The Cubs had 5 bad years before they got better. 3 if you want to count after Theo took over. The Stros had 3 bad years and another 3 after Luhnow took over. Lost in the ALDS in 2015 Missed the playoffs in 2016 , Won the WS in 2017. I'm not saying we have to follow the exact path they did but they both won WS so it's not a bad model. As far as drafting high not being a key look at how much it helped the Astros and they even screwed up a couple picks like all teams do. Correa , Bregman and Springer are head and shoulders above any results the Sox have experienced so far but we made up for that by having prospects we traded for who may have the same impacts as those 3. They just have to not get injured any more and get here. Trying to win too early screws up the chance at more impact draft choices. Not surrounding all those young players with talent too early didn't seem to negatively impact the Stros or Cubs. Their bond was built because they all were in the same system at the same time who came up together or a year or 2 apart. Then they added the free agents to complete the rebuild Verlander, Beltran, Reddick. Morton, Gurriel. January 14, 2015 Traded Andrew Thurman (minors), Mike Foltynewicz and Rio Ruiz to the Atlanta Braves. Received Evan Gattis and James Hoyt. Wonder if they would want a do over with that one. July 30, 2015 Traded Josh Hader, Adrian Houser, Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received Mike Fiers, Carlos Gomez and cash. They got 3 Ok years from Fiers during the 2015 playoff team and the 2017 WS winning team. Fiers was 30 Gomez was 29. I could go farther back but I don't see anyone they acquired in trades who made a difference before they started making the playoffs. Mostly a lot of good FA acquisitions. Fiers pitched 1 inning in the 2015 playoffs and was left off the 2017 playoffs and World Series roster.
  22. 1 point
  23. 1 point
    At some point, you need to try to win games and improve. Adam Engel doesn't deserve anymore time in a MLB outfield. Playing bad young guys with no future with the team is actually worse than filling the spot with average veterans. At some point, progress needs to be made and steps need to be taken. This needs to be a year of improvement and growth; Engel assists with neither of those things.. Pederson for two years is worth way more to the team than giving Adam Engel 500 more at bats. In this thread, there are people hoping for playing time for Adam Engel and Daniel Palka; they are literally two of the worst players in MLB. Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez are also bad baseball players. That would be an old school White Sox path; sign over the hill veterans that were once good, and hope to catch one more good year before their career is officially over. Once again, comparing Jones/Cargo to Pederson doesn't make a lot of sense. Adam Jones had a .5 WAR last year in 600 At Bats. He hasn't surpassed 2 WAR in 3 years. Gonzalez had a "bounce back" year last year with a 1.7 WAR; his bat speed has diminished significantly and he's never hit outside of Coors. He had a negative WAR two years ago. These aren't good adds; they're simply big names from the past that no longer are worth their reputations. The Sox need to bring in young, potentially, long term assets - Pederson may be locked up for two years, but there's no reason to think you couldn't extend him given the current climate of outfielders.
  24. 1 point
    First time poster, long time lurker. Some White Sox fans obsessions with bad baseball players has always baffled me. Comparing Daniel Palka to Joc Pederson is just laughably absurd. Palka is 27 years old and Pederson is 26. Despite Palka posting a +107 wRC last year, he was a .7 WAR player in nearly 500 at bats. He doesn't walk, he strikes out a ton, and he might be the worst defensive player in baseball. He graded out as a -12.1 last year despite playing the easiest position on the baseball diamond and playing a position that is cluttered with horrible fielders. Joc on the other hand, is one year younger and has already accumulated 10.1 fWAR, with two seasons over 3.1 and one at 2.7. He's an above average MLB player. Joc didn't grade out great in the outfield last year, but in his career he's a career average CF'er - which is much harder to be than an average left fielder. ANYONE who thinks Daniel Palka can even sniff Pedersons jock as a defensive player is absolutely kidding themselves. Pederson's wRC+ last year was 126!, and in his one down year he was a league average hitter with an wRC+ of 100. I get it guys, you had fun watching Palka on a very bad baseball team. He supplied you with some moments of joy in a season that had very few, and he seems like a fun good guy... but he SUCKS at baseball. He does not belong on any even mediocre baseball team. Joc, on the other hand, is an impact player on a Good baseball team. Even comparing the two players is absolutely laughable. Daniel Palka does not belong in a MLB uniform. He has some power and can hit the ball really hard, but overall he's a bad baseball player. He can't play the field, he can't throw, he's a poor baserunner and his bat ceiling is a slightly above average hitter? No thanks. Also, as a CF'er for 18 years of my life, people citing sprint speed is absurd. Aaron Rowand wasn't winning any sprint speed contests but he was a hell of an instinctual defender. I'm not comparing Pederson to Roward, but his sprint speed means very little. You're breaking down already unreliable defensive metrics even further - using catch probability on a year to year basis is a horrible way to analyze a player given the micro-nature that is the sample size. Long story short, Daniel Palka is awful at baseball and Joc Pederson is not.
  25. 1 point
    Yeah but Miller is a Milwaukee business, so it makes sense. And is a cool name, like Coors Field and Busch Stadium.
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