Not exactly.
Moncada, Robert and Jimenez are the same type of calculated risks.
Nobody can guarantee Luis will be a 5-6 fWAR performer. If you count the original signing deal and the extension, there’s nevertheless at least a chance it goes wrong.
A year ago, Moncada looked like a sure thing vs. Machado, right?
Jimenez is also an injury risk and he’s never going to be able to put up massive fWAR numbers due to defense, base running, etc.
The thing is the Padres can afford to do this because of their pitching depth, at the major league level, Clevinger in 2022 and in the minors.
They’re staking claim to being one of the best 2-3 teams in baseball for another 5-6 years, and their best pitcher, Gore, will be dirt cheap his first three years.
The White Sox have their risk in veterans Grandal, Abreu, Keuchel and Lynn (lesser extent). If they don’t make it to the playoffs or advance a round, they’re going to have a tough time coming up with enough money to entice Giolito. It would be around 50% bigger than the largest deal in team history, which just got inflated by Tatis’ deal and another $5-7 trillion in the US economy. Unless Kopech, Cease or someone like Kelley becomes that next ace, you’re going to have to buy one at top dollar on the open market. Not the White Sox game. It’s also pretty clear we don’t have the trade capital to pull it off, because they need to keep Kopech and Vaughn.
Overall, if Robert, Kopech and Moncada become stars, the White Sox will be fine. Two of them is enough for the Central. Just one puts the whole contention window at risk.
(Now you can obviously argue that Myers and Hosmer are risks too, but if they were really concerned they would have dealt Myers at peak relative value this offseason.) The Padres are investing in their future, the White Sox are waiting for the payoff before they will invest further. From a typical business standpoint, that approach is certainly preferable if you want to have the very best product in your industry. It’s definitely a better way to get the fans on your side than hiring Tony LaRussa.