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Agreed. He also knew (for the first time in his career) that he didn’t have to carry the load on offense. His approach was noticeably different, swinging at less pitches out of the zone.

Devils Advocate: Since Giolito's family isnt in dire need for the money he doesnt need to try and completely maximize his pay and can choose where he feels comfortable. Its impossible to tell someone's motivation unless you know them personally.

I wouldn’t want to give up any prospects to get Benintendi, so I prefer Eaton on that basis alone.

Jose will certainly regress but he’ll be better than what projection models are expecting out of him IMO. He legit was in much better shape last year and put up a xwOBA in the 93rd percentile.

If you can’t afford a weak bat from a position that is 1/9 of your lineup and primarily defensive (and often better D than the starter) then the correct answer is : “we didn’t build or roster correctly”

The whole idea behind "cancel culture" is dumb. The same people who are screaming this in response to things like being a racist and committing treason against the nation are the same ones who cancelled Colin Kaepernik and the Dixie Chicks. They had noooooo problem costing people their incomes then, so what changed? The party of "personal responsibility" and "fuck your feelings" is the party losing their minds here. Maybe they should take a hardy helping of their own advice? And please no one on Soxtalk give me the "Freedom of Speech" line or i really will lose it.

CHI 20. Rashawn Slater OT Northwestern CHI 61. Rondale Moore WR Purdue trade CHI 83. Rashad Weaver EDGE Pitt CHI 93. Greg Newsome II CB Northwestern trade CHI 205. Kelvin Joseph CB Kentucky CHI 219. Greg Eiland OG Mississippi State CHI 224. Tre Norwood S Oklahoma CHI 230. Jonathon Cooper EDGE Ohio State

I'm glad someone gets it.

I've run through this a few times. This is what I think is my best one: 24 Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT 52 Jalen Mayfield, OT 58 Ronnie Perkins, EDGE 131 Osa Odighizuwa, DT 161 Dazz Newsome, WR 205 Israel Mukuamu, CB 242 Ian Book, QB

I think Jose also benefited from having no April to mid may or so. He doesn't like the cold weather and usually isn't as good the first 6 or so weeks of the season. Career ops by month April 836 May 806 June 848 July 830 August 987 September 884 Overall 870. So last year he started with hot weather right away. Even that he was quite bad the first two weeks (maybe it is not just the weather but also some time to warm up) but in August and September he really raked. I think the better shape also played a role as playing for a contender motivated him more but some regression certainly will be coming. I would gladly take 3 war and a 130 wRC+ from him this year.

Can't do proof of vaccination, because the only people that could go are health care workers and people that have major health conditions. Those are the people that should stay away and let the healthy adults wear masks and socially distance themselves and things will be fine.

With a 60-game season that didn't start until deep into the summer, it's hard to justify comparing 2020 to the predictions of a full 2021 season. Many players (like Jose) didn't have the early season slump. Others never experienced a mid-season slump because of the length of the season. There was no cold weather to deal with. And on and on. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see a WAR drop from Jose, and placing his projection in line with 2019 seems logical. I do think, if 2020 had been a full season, we would have seen better results from Jose. He obviously couldn't have kept up the pace for HRs and RBIs over 162 games, but he looked totally locked in last year. I expect a very good 2021 for Jose and a higher WAR than predicted.

Would take Beni over Eaton 10/10 times. Sad the White Sox didn't get in on this. No reason not to. Would have been nice depth.

Benintendi always reminds me of Gordon Beckham and his rise and fall. Both looked like sure things to become stars. They both will end up with relatively long careers but with very ho-hum results.

Keuchel has averaged about 6.0 innings per start as of late, which means he’d only have to make 27 starts for that 4th year to vest. We’ll have to hope that Cease & Kopech pass him by come 2022 and (along with a Lynn extension) can push him down to the #5 spot in the rotation. That way we can skip him a handful of times and then hope he misses a start or two due to injury. He’s an important piece of the rotation this year, but I do worry about 2022 and especially 2023 with him. It would definitely be nice to have that $20M freed up for other things.

It’s 75% better than 3-4 years ago when Moncada was struggling and Benintendi looking like a perennial All-Star. After all this time, Yoan and Kopech still retain the volatility that was the partial reasoning behind the trade from the Boston perspective. To their detriment, though, Benintendi has regressed. He was the quintessential high floor, but limited ceiling collegian and Hahn rolled the dice. Devers was never going to be included as the third piece. Guessing it would be a 50/50 split or maybe even slightly leaning Devers if you had a poll asking who you’d prefer as a White Sox fan to have between him and Moncada from this point forward. Also, speaking of DH/1B/3B, Miguel Andujar would be an ideal add, but the Yankees aren’t stupid...even though he currently has no place to play.

Cordero is one of those toolsy guys like Adolfo that has never been able to stay healthy and match his raw power with actual HR consistency in the majors. Plus, AB’s getting more and more expensive. And he doesn’t have the arm for RF. For this season though, Benintendi in LF, Jimenez to DH would have been something to consider. Just need to keep Jimenez healthy and out in the field for 140+ games somehow.

I haven't seen one post where anyone is sad. Benintendi isn't a failed prospect . He's already accumulated a decent amount of WAR in his short career. But Boston never put him in RF so I would imagine he doesn't have the arm for it.

I don't think he is high upside at all. Not much about him excites me.

Pretty sure Adolfo was awarded an extra one for missing so much time due to injury.

I think they're saying that if either Collins or Grandal get hurt they need to have someone actually able to catch at a big league level, and I'd expect that to almost certainly happen at some point.

Yes, I’ve already argued that elsewhere. The counter is that the Rangers have one of the better scouting groups in the game, and that Lynn has already peaked. Odorizzi is three years younger, and you have the added advantage of taking him away from a rival...even though it doesn’t look like the Twins now can afford him as well. At the beginning of the offseason, he was projected around 3/$39-42. Essentially, you have him through 2023, and you keep Dunning. Of course, Lynn would be $5-6 million cheaper for 2021.

Yeah I agree, I can understand if you don't want to rank madrigal top25 due to upside concerns but not ranking him is quite crazy. Really for an 80-100 ranked player you are glad if he becomes a 2 war player. For example here are the 2014 fg top100. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2014-top-100-prospects/ There are some solid players ranked 80-100 and even a few good ones (berrios, odorizzi, wong, colome) but most of them did not even become multi year regulars.

That’s not indicated at all. Maybe they saw Dunning as basically a non-contributor

Signing Lynn to anything beyond 2 additional years with an option for 2024, or using him as leverage...just don’t think JR is going to take that kind of risk with a pitcher in his 30’s with Keuchel already on the books. After all, he’s turning 34 early in this season. An extension for him would be more surprising than Giolito. Even if he has a great season, how many huge long-term contract offers will he get? Could also just give him the one year QO. Then again, he’s a former Cardinal who dates back to TLR. Signing Odorizzi to three years and keeping Dunning would have been more logical, which indicates they were probably happier to give up talent than take on any more additional salary. Shocking, right?

He's a big union guy. He's not going to take a short deal because he understands that hurts the guys coming up behind him.

Seems like more teams are choosing to start at 6:10 or 6:40 for weekday games, Wish the Sox would have done that too. Stickin' with 7:10.

And in the most predictable way possible, #CancelDisneyPlus was trending last night in response to their decision. Because logically, if you are so against cancel culture, the only appropriate action to take is to cancel something else

True but also liking the Lucroy signing more & more! If he's fully recovered, he could have a solid impact.

On MLBN they compared AB to Darin Erstad. So he should be pretty attractive to KW in about 5 years.

Get a test of our actual abilities right out of the gate. I like it. Hopefully we won't be bitching heavily less than a month in, lol.

In April the only team we play that is actually trying to make the playoffs is the Angels. The other teams are Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Indians, Mariners, Red Sox. We will need to start off strong against these weak teams.

Pretty tough dude! Evidently, he played with a herniated neck disk for 3 years which kind of matches up with his struggles as it got worse. He also got concussed and a broken nose in a July 2019 home plate collision. Surely that couldn't have helped it. His surgery was last off season over a year ago (not sure exact date). But its sounds like he's feeling pretty good now and ready to get back to it. He could be a heck of a pickup!

20. Alijah Vera-Tucker OT USC 61. Dillon Radunz OT North Dakota State 83. Kyle Trask QB Florida 130. Andre Cisco S Syracuse 145. Shaka Toney EDGE Penn State 146. Paulson Adebo CB Stanford 151. Amen Ogbongbemiga LB Oklahoma State 157. Sage Surratt WR Wake Forest 191. Jaylon Moore OT Western Michigan 219. Ben Mason RB Michigan 220. Kylen Granson TE SMU

I’m making this somewhat political so I apologize but I just can’t stand this argument I’m seeing by one side of “Why does Disney get to be the moral arbiter or what is right and what is wrong?” Because they write the checks and she takes their money. You represent the company and they have every right to say “We don’t agree with these views and have decided to part ways in our relationship.” It just bothers me to no end this idea of having zero consequences for our actions. It’s fantasy land to believe otherwise

Ironically, he was the first reporter to get the Eloy contract extension, and after getting mocked for a week, Passan/Rosenthal etc. ended up crediting him

I agree with Vaughn. Hahn is really good at getting those types of extensions done. I think Lynn will get extended too but Gio is a different story.

Yeah, as much of a slam dunk it is Vaughn will sign a deal in spring training, Gio is the exact opposite.

Given Hahn's MO...I would be more surprised if he wasn't talking to those players about extensions.

Minnesota has 2 titles in the AL West.

Given that the Sox for the last couple years have been handing out those extensions in order to manage players controllable years, I don't think it's crazy to think they are working on Vaughn as fast as possible in order to grease the wheels. gio is gonna be a little harder because his free agency is much closer and he has had two pretty good seasons in a row

I wonder who posted this thread...

This is based on WAR, in 2019 when Jose won the batting titled his WAR was only 2.0. So right on with this projection.

I was looking through some box scores from 2020 to see who Jose had batting behind him. It seemed to be mostly Grandal, but in the 5th game of the season Nicky Delmonico was batting cleanup for the Sox. That lineup also featured Zach Collins, Danny Mendick, and Leury Garcia.

Interesting article and analysis, thanks for posting! Dallas Keuchel also among the pitchers with the highest expected WAR drop off (4.9 vs. 2.5). Really hoping the Sox won't have to eat $20M with this guy in 2023, they really could use the money for extensions or an upgrade. The good news is the Twins also have a few expected regressions (Maeda and Cruz). On the flippity flip, Nick Madrigal on the list for hitters with the biggest expected WAR increase (0.3 to 2.3). Wish the Sox landed Joc Pederson, also on this list (0.0 to 2.1). Perhaps Jed's trade of Yu Darvish (THE highest expecting pitching drop off from 8.1 to 3.8) was smart in retrospect.

Not seeing the Dunning move as a mistake, simply because they have (now at least four) alternatives in Cease, Kopech, Rodon and Lopez they believe can outproduce him this season. They likely never projected him as more than a fifth starter or swingman in the bullpen. They just have to be right on that evaluation. It’s nothing like trading Wells, Fogg and Lowe for one pitcher, then not being able to replace him...or giving up Montas and Bassitt in addition to a future MVP candidate for one year of Samardzija. Those were desperation moves...they simply had to work for the team to compete. What will make most everyone extremely irate is if they use this “window of unprecedented financial flexibility” not to take on any additional salary or fix the obvious roster/depth issues we’re already well aware of at the trade deadline.

So many ignorant takes here today, feels like a game thread.

Yes, I do understand that vaccine is not 100% effective. But most people will take a 90+% as an improvement over doing nothing. Whatever it takes to get this economy up and going. We simply cannot sit home for another year and watch business and people wither away.

Let's look at the 2021 Sox and compare them to 2020. Starting Pitching 2020 v. 2021 1. Giolito v. Giolito. Slight improvement. Giolito is still developing, and the projections have him improving. 2. Keuchel v. Keuchel. Slight decline. Keuchel isn't going to put up a ERA of 1.99 again. 3. Dunning v. Lynn. Vast improvement. Dunning wasn't really our 3rd starter, but I'm putting him here so I can match Cease with himself. 4. Cease v. Cease. Likely improvement, perhaps significant improvement. This is all about our new pitching coach helping to fix Cease. It's unlikely Cease could be worse. 5. Lopez/Gonzalez v. Rodon/Kopech. Likely vast improvement. Lopez and Gio were really bad. If Rodon doesn't get hurt, he'll be much better and a good bridge to Kopech. The Sox have significantly upgraded their rotation with Lynn, and the expected arrival of Kopech. If Katz can get Cease on track, the Sox will be very strong. Not top of baseball, but more than strong enough with their offense and bullpen. Bullpen 2020 v. 2021 1. Colome v. Hendriks. Improved. Colome was very good at converting saves, but his underlying numbers have been declining, and he might not be good enough for playoff baseball. Hendriks is better. 2. Bummer v. Bummer. Big improvement. He wasn't healthy in 2020. Hopefully he will stay healthy this year. 3. Heuer v. Heuer. Improved. Has to be as he gains more experience. 4. Marshall v. Marshall. Stable. 5. Crochet v. Crochet. Improvement if Crochet is used in the pen instead of stretched out to be a starter in AAA. He will improve with experience. 6. Cordero v. Cordero. Same. 7. Fry v. Fry. Same 8. Cishek v. Fill in the blank. Improvement, as Cishek was bad last year. 9. Detwiler v. Fill in the blank. If Crochet takes Detwiler's innings, this will be an improvement. This is a better bullpen, and could be one of the best, if not the best, in baseball. Hendriks can compete with anyone, Bummer is super solid, and the rest are very good. Crochet is the wild card. If they use him in the pen and he stays healthy, we should blow away teams at the end of games. Starting Lineup 2020 v. 2021 1. Anderson v. Anderson. Same. I actually think Tim can get even better, but I won't project that here. 2. Moncada v. Moncada. Vast improvement. If he returns to 2019 form, this will be huge boost to this lineup. 3. Abreu v. Abreu. Same. Many will predict a decline, and it may happen. But Jose will remain the leader of the team. 4. Jimenez v. Jimenez. Slight improvement. He will continue to get better, and will make up for any decline by Abreu 5. Grandal v. Grandal. Same. He didn't have a great 2020, so it shouldn't be too hard for him to at least match it. 6. Encarnacion v. Vaughn. Improvement. Encarnacion was 70 OPS+ bad. Vaughn, when he comes up, will crush that number. 7. Robert v. Robert. Improvement. He started hot, went ice cold, then started improving at the end. He should be much better in year 2. 8. Mazara v. Eaton. Improvement. People fear Eaton will get hurt, but he only missed a few games his 3 years in Chicago. When he plays, he'll be vastly better than 64 OPS+ Mazara. 9. Madrigal v. Madrigal. Same. He had a fabulous rookie year. This lineup should be much improved with a much stronger year out of Moncada, better DH play with Vaughn, an improved RF, and Luis Robert in year 2. We were second in the AL in runs scored to the Yanks. We could be #1 in the AL this year. Bench 2020 v. 2021 1. James McCann v. Zach Collins. Big drop off. This is the one position on the team where we are taking a step back. It's why many are calling for another backup catcher. I think if you give Collins some ABs, he'll come through on the offensive side. He will likely never be as good defensively or as a game manager as McCann. 2. Garcia/Mendick v. Garcia. If Leury stays healthy, this will be an improvement. 3. Engel v. Engel. Same. A solid platoon player and defensive replacement. 4. Last man v. Last man. ???? We don't know who the Sox will choose as their last bench player. Will it be an infielder or outfielder? Coaching 2020 v. 2021 1. Renteria v. LaRussa. Vast improvement. I know many of you hate TLR. But he's going to be first all-time in wins for a post-integration manager this year. Renteria had the Sox having fun last year, but he had no clue how to manage tight pressure packed games down the stretch and into the postseason. LaRussa does. 2. Cooper v. Katz. Vast improvement. We have to see it, but going off what Katz did for Giolito gives most of us confidence he'll do very well for other pitchers too. Might be the key move of the offseason. 3. Remaining coaches v. remaining coaches. Even. There may even be improvement here, but I'll leave it even for now. Overview Here are the areas of improvement. Starting pitching: Giolito slightly better, Lynn huge plus, Cease likely improved, Rodon/Kopech much better than Lopez/Gonzalez Bullpen: Hendriks better, Bummer healthier, Heuer more experienced, Crochet the wild card. The rest are the same. Lineup: Moncada much better, Vaughn better than Encarnacion, Eaton better than Mazara, Robert better in year 2 Bench: Garcia staying healthy. Coaching: Huge improvement with LaRussa and Katz. The only declines are Keuchel will be unlikely to have a 1.99 ERA, and Collins cannot replace McCann at catcher. Granted, this is a very optimistic overview. Injuries will happen and could upset this evaluation. But it's crazy to look at this team and predict they may not make the postseason, will melt down and be terrible, and all the other doom and gloom predictions Sox fans have been expressing lately. This is a young, hungry and improving team, strengthened by savvy and skilled veterans, managed by a Hall of Famer who has a top notch pitching coach by his side, with no obvious weaknesses. The lineup could be scary 1-9 if Moncada is back, Vaughn acclimates quickly, and Eaton stays healthy. The top 3 starters all were top 7 Cy Young vote getters last year, and there is potential for starters 4 and 5 to become studs. The bullpen may be the best in baseball. I wouldn't call us World Series favorites, or even AL Pennant favorites. But we can match up with anyone in the AL, and if we win the pennant, we will have a shot at winning the World Series. So, there's my rosy analysis. Go ahead and tear it down if you like. But if you are really a Sox fan, why not just enjoy it?? We have an awesome team that should be very fun to watch.

Keith Law has never liked our minor league guys. He hated the Chris Sale drafting.