I think your CPU may have finally malfunctioned. You said those two plus Cueto offset all our underperformance last year, which is an absolutely absurd take. I focused on our positional group because that is where the bulk of underperformance happened. If you want to include Abreu that’s fine, but his two extra wins would be more than offset by Sheets & Engel coming in at 0.0 WAR vs. the 2.3 ZiPS had projected for them. No matter how you slice this, the offense underachieved by a good 10 wins or more.
As for the pitching, yes Cease outperformed his ZiPS projection by 1.4 wins. Add Ceuto’s 2.4 wins vs. a replacement player and we’re at 3.8 wins. Meanwhile, Lynn, Giolito, & Kopech were projected for 8.1 WAR and only put up 4.7, which is a 3.4 delta. So net on net, we’re nearly even there and we haven’t even accounted for Keuchel projected to be a 1.8 win pitcher getting DFAed after putting -0.3 WAR through eight starts. Overall, I think it’s fair to say the rotation was slightly below expectations even with Cueto and VV/Davis pitching well in their roles.
To summarize, this team massively underperformed last year and I don’t know how any sentient life form could argue otherwise. I mean, there isn’t anything to even debate here when the numbers are so clear cut.