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Both sides spending a stupid amount of time arguing hypothetical situations. How about we wait another 6 weeks and save everyone the effort. This thread has become useless because these endless arguments are obscuring any small updates that are scattered throughout the rest of the thread.

The reason we’ve been discussing Ortiz so much is that the O’s have a lot of redundancy in the infield: Gunnar Henderson. Stud who can play either SS or 3B well. Not going anywhere. Under control for 5 years. Jackson Holliday. Anticipated stud who can play either 2B or SS. May still be a couple of months away, but maybe not. Will be a “must play” once up. Under control for 6+ years. Jordan Westburg. Solid 2B or 3B who can play SS adequately too if needed Decent debut half-season and will get even better. Under control for 6 years. Joey Ortiz. Best defender in the MiL system at either SS or 2B, can play 3B too. Bat has been excellent the last season and a half in the minors after recovering from shoulder surgery (non-throwing shoulder) in 2021. Under control for 6 years. Connor Norby. Seasoned AAA guy who’s a very solid hitter, weakest 2B defender of this group, can play LF. Under control for 6+ years. Coby Mayo. 3B who’s about ready offensively, may need some more polish defensively and probably won’t be as good at 3B as Henderson, Westburg or Ortiz despite a 70 arm. May move to 1B or RF, not because he can’t play 3B, but because we have better defensive options there. Under control 6+ years. Ramon Urias. Veteran who’s very capable at 3B (won a Gold Glove there in 2022) and 2B, can play SS too but not as well as several others listed here. Very decent bat (106 OPS+) and has been worth 7.4 rWAR in 329 games. Still under control for 3 more years. Jorge Mateo. Excellent defensive SS (Fielding Bible winner in 2022) who shows some amazing flashes with the bat (1.062 OPS last April) but has been a terrible hitter most of the time (78 OPS+). Defense was amazing as a starter, but slipped to merely above average when he was relegated to the bench in the second half of 2023. Under control for two more years. Henderson and Holliday are untouchable. Some consider Mayo untouchable, I’m a little less strident than some O’s fans (e.g. Sports Guy) but for I doubt he’d be moved in a deal for Cease despite Cease’s upside. So you can see, Ortiz is a bit redundant for us, which is why we’d be willing to part with him more readily than we’d part with an equally-rated pitcher or an outfielder. But there’s no magic to Ortiz here. Westburg or Norby could be included in a package as well. Personally I rank them Westburg/Ortiz/Norby, but they’re closely grouped and it depends what a team is looking for. Sorry if this is too much detail but I thought it might be useful context for those who don’t follow the O’s closely.

I avoid engaging you when you're on one of your typical crusades to prove yourself right, but this is bullshit. Getz holding out for X does not mean Y wasn't offered. For all we know Baltimore is offering 2 top 100 positional prospects, and JR's mandate is to get pitching in return. You do not know what is actually being offered. If Cease isn't traded by Feb 13, it could be for MULTIPLE reasons, only one of which would prove you correct. You don't get to claim you were proven right when we will likely never know what was or wasn't offered if a trade doesn't happen. But of course, everyone else is moving the goalposts. JFC dude, do better. This of course will be construed as getting personal, so feel free not to respond. I certainly won't engage with your inevitable response.

I'm trying to keep up, are you arguing cease doesn't have a lot of value after a guy with zero mlb experience just signed for 300+ million to pitch?

Kjerstad has to headline or pass

Hard pass for me…I’d hold onto the deadline if that’s the best I could do

One price of our freedom of speech is allowing folks that we don't like or believe deserve a voice to have a voice. It's the only way to assure that every person who should have a voice, does. I read the article, I don't believe him. Hopefully he had some savings after the confidential settlement so he's not on public aid. I'm glad he's not in a position to abuse anyone and banished from baseball. Media personalities, journalists, etc interview all sorts of undesirable humans. Perhaps it will encourage others who have been, or are currently being, abused to step forward and report the crime.

I'm not certain it would create interest. To me the MLB f draft is the equivalent of buying a bunch of scratch off tickets, waiting four years, and seeing if you won anything.

Maybe the best trade we made is the one we dont make Then this thread can finally go away

I like some of the back and forth on hypotheticals because it's interesting to hear different perspectives, but that all takes a backseat now that we're finally getting to the important stuff: which posters will end up being right and which ones will need to admit the other ones were right.

Getz has some ability to assess baseball talent, Hahn had zero. Getz hasn't done anything stupid his first six months. Getz brought in experienced external people for key positions. Just trying to remain optimistic with an open mind. I understand many expect 100 + losses in 2024, just as many expected 100 + wins and a World Series in 2022. I expect a few holdover players to outperform their 2023 output, and a portion of the new players to contribute. I also expect a better team / player attitude this season, and hopefully all of this leads to a much more enjoyable season for everyone. It's also too early to tell what Getz' long term mindset is. You can't say what players he would like for a competitive team on a long term basis based on a severe cost cutting of payroll this offseason. There aren't many players who want to come to an 100 loss team if they have better options.

Good points as always.....imo if Getz is asking for 4 legit pieces as you suggest, it's still all kabuki theatre because both sides kind of know where it will end up but they have to dance for awhile first and what each side will truly accept will only be revealed when there's a real deadline or when someone else has made a great offer but someone else also has an alternative that's time sensitive. Elias has to say no to the savage OF/IF/SP and legit 4th piece framework and offer 2 pieces instead without either the savage or the SP. Getz has to stick with 4 until the last second in the hopes he can use NYY/BOS to spook him into a deal and when the rubber finally meets the road, Getz and Elias both will either have to accept the 3 man framework plus maybe a lotto ticket or they won't. I think fathom said the "plan" is they want to wait until after Snell/Montgomery. Hopefully neither end up in the AL East or at absolute most only 1 ends up there. I think Snell will end up on the west coast and we'll see if TEX is willing to outbid NYY and BOS for Montgomery. IMO if Cashman is willing to play ball and he's on a hotter seat so he should, I would take Jones, two pitchers and a SS/2B prospect. I dont think they will move Dominguez because of fan backlash. It's hard to tell a little kid they can't have a piece of candy when they've had a small bite of it already and like it. Much easier to take something away from them that's only theoretical.

Still linking orioles to cease

Ha I'll take that as a compliment. If you think that post was lengthy you should've seen everything I started writing about the Rays. I decided fuk it. JR cannot even see the benefit or hiring a lot more developmental people in scouting, coaching, or any computer science/biometrics people. We're just spinning our wheels talking about getting prospects again. I'm not confident at all that the Sox have the right people to turn high draft picks or prospects from another team into useful players.

Think about how bad the AL Central has been. Then think about how many years the White Sox, with all their advantages, seemed to not even try to compete. MLB should do itself a favor and force JR to get out.

Love that not even finishing seems to be an implied option for the White Sox...

I can confidently put Sox last but no clue for division winner.

If Cease only has offers of $45M in two years, something went terribly wrong, and it has nothing to do with his down 2023.

They’re having financial issues

What is stopping the Mariners to trade for hitters using their pitching instead of what he is saying?

I think we need to revisit this after spring training and rosters are finalized. My hunch is the Guardians will add some pieces and be the AL Central team that loses in the first round.

I’d bet on the Tigers to win the division. Minnesota took some big steps backward meanwhile the Tigers looked like the team to beat in the second half of last season. They have the best manager in the division, added some useful pieces (one of whom was poached from the twins) and their young talent is a year older and primed for breakout seasons. I could see Skubal contending for Cy Young. Really like the Canha addition for them too. They’re just unfortunately stuck with Baez but I wouldn’t rule out him having a ~100 OPS+ season again. losing the division I dunno. I think the central will actually be close and entertaining next year. The easy answer is the Sox but I could also legitimately see us winning 80 or so games next season. I voted for the royals, I’m not impressed by anyone on their team outside of Witt, including Vinnie P and Ragans.

Zzzzzzzzzzz

Any optimism in the White Sox for next season has to be zapped at this point, right? Getz says he does not like the team and then trades/signs players who will probably make the team worse under the guise of cutting payroll all the while why Reinsdorf says he wants to win in 2024. It's pretty depressing to have this type of leadership. Onwards to last place!

Montas took them out of the Cease market.

then they'd all be on ignore!!!!!

It’s a shame we can’t ignore admins.

Today's game should have 28 man rosters. Times have changed.

In other words you now realize there’s a real chance I’m right and Cease will not be going anywhere this offseason, but you need to move the goalposts so that you don’t have to admit I was right. “Sure he didn’t move but that’s because Jimmy said the Sox were stubborn so ha!” After all, the insiders have been completely right about the Cease negotiations so far, the leaks haven’t at all been self serving.

It literally happens everywhere. The question to help delineate is a matter of scale. As a result of public and state tolerance. I don’t recommend going there? There are better places to go. It is obviously consistent with many gulf and Caribbean islands and beach destinations in terms of beautiful natural aspects. If you went there though, you would understand.

I think it’s worth pointing out that the majority of Orioles fans would do a Cowser + Ortiz package for Cease. This may not fully meet our fandom’s desires, but it does represent one consensus top 50 prospect (most would have him as a 55 FV guy) and one consensus top 100 prospect (50 FV guy). And while a bunch of message board posters aren’t ultimately agreeing to a trade, it does suggest an acknowledgement of value that Cease has which Balta & Aly refuse to accept. Fans almost always overrate their prospects is the key point, which is a great point because it means a savage OF + infield prospect + lesser 3rd piece framework is likely possible, but will require both sides to come to a compromise. My guess is Getz is still asking for four pieces (and legit ones) while Elias is reluctant to give up a SP prospect at this time. Hopefully push comes to shove at some point and Covich is agreed upon as a third piece. A Cease to Baltimore trade just makes too much sense for both sides.

I never understood why people think you can run a MLB organization like the NFL or NBA. Drafts are a much higher risk in MLB since you have more choices. The level of talent in the NCAA isn't as big as a divide from the NFL or NBA.

Eh.....I still think you are inferring alot of things that are questionable. For example, let's assume we are at the point of where pitchers and catchers report and let's say Getz successfully called Elias bluff and Elias is now offering the 1) LH savage OFer of Getz choice (Cowser or Hjerstad, Getz likely prefers the former), plus 2) the IFer that Getz wanted (Ortiz/Norby) and 3) he's finally agreed to SP Cade Povich as the third piece. 95%+ of this board would take that deal and such a deal would also thoroughly repudiate you and baseball galaly's theory that Cease is only worth a single back end Top 100 player plus some lottery tickets. Suppose Getz still says no and the reason is because he still wants a pitching heavy deal, not a pitcher as the third piece deal. That a trade didn't go down doesn't necessarily mean we overvalued Cease, it could also mean that Getz/JR simply has the wrong priorities in terms of what they want in the return. You will be correct only if 1) he isn't traded by ST AND 2) our insiders uniformly confirm that no one offered 2 Top 100 players (or equivalent) in any type of combination. You gotta satisfy both elements. But Getz saying I only want pitching and someone offering a treasure trove of bats doesn't mean you are right. It means our FO and owner are stupid.

I appreciate your detailed analysis, thanks Frobby.

I don’t know that I buy this part. It still seems to me that the idea of the Central being always pathetic is a new, recent phenomenon. Last year the Twins took an easy division, but they had the run differential of a 90 win team. They were held back by their poor performance in close games. 2022, the Guardians were a legit 90 win team. 2021 the White Sox were a legit 90 win team. 2019 you had a couple good years by the Twins. 2016-2017 was the peak of an Indians team that went to a WS game 7 and won 100 games the next year. Before that the Royals and Tigers had multi year runs including WS appearances for Detroit and a KC title. Mostly the Central has behaved like a normal division, a team plays well and wins 90+ games. What we saw last year, where no team could do that, seems like an anomaly. I don’t know which team it will be, but out of Cleveland, Minnesota, and Detroit, there are a couple teams that could definitely come together and push 90 wins.

Well someone picked the Sox to win the division. Probably was a joke vote. I picked them last. Picked Detroit for 1st because I don't have a clue except they are being proactive and seem to be rising.

I dunno looks like Fields was a much better college player than Penix

I think that is the most depressing thing, even in the weakest division in the AL, the White Sox are at best the 4th team and probably the 5th team.

?

26 year old glove-first player who’s not elite even with the glove is not the sort of thing a big market team should be looking for. The moment you acquire him, you’re looking for the replacement. Cease was an elite prospect with elite upside. To make it worth trading him, you gotta get similar upside.

To me, the TLR emoji means pure bewilderment.

I’m not comfortable at all waiting to the deadline. If all offers are crap, then you really have no choice, but waiting on perfection is a really bad idea IMO.

And if you still don’t see the return you like at the trade deadline, then what? At what point are you being too stubborn? Getz should obviously be trying to maximize the return, but it’s also such a fine line to walk. I’m surprised at how comfortable some of y’all are with hanging onto Cease. Just insanely risky.

Lol nice try. It's an "Inside the Orioles" writer not a national SI guy....sounds like Elias is doing a fine job greasing local writers and converting them into basically state media. Unscrupulous but impressive.

the sad part is If the O's (2nd lowest payroll in MLB) signed Snell or Montgomery and traded for Cease they'd be pennant favs for the next 2 years. Instead we're arguing about Cease's value for players that are blocked until 2026 ?

Depends how old the lamb is.

Just saying it once is too much.

I feel like you have told this story about your niece multiple times and it’s weird every time

You better clear your search history.