This may be long winded, but I really like to write these more for myself than anything so I can look back on my own thoughts.
First thing that comes to mind are teams like the Rangers that are actively saying they'll be cutting payroll. I don't think they'll be the only ones. It's times like this I wish our owner wasn't JR, because this is about a perfect of a storm you'll ever get. You have a young, talented team, coming into form, ready to take that next step - meaning, winning a playoff series, possibly competing for a pennant if things all go right. I'm probably the poster you hate to hear, but I realistically never really believed this team was coming out the other end ... just couldn't realistically expect Dunning, Rodon, Cease to carry the back end of the rotation through a playoff grind and against playoff lineups. I think realistically, that's the same problem next year. You have a lot of arms, but we really need 2-3 of them to take that next step to where they can be counted on consistently. So is that Stiever, Cease? Crochet, etc I'm not so sure at this point. At this point my level of confidence is this order: Dunning, Kopech, Cease, Crochet (he'd be my number 2 in that last if I knew more about his injury, part of me thinks he'll come back and blow out his arm in ST or something) Steiver. I think realistically you're going to see a few steps back out of Keuchel, and that's fine. But that really means we need some of these guys to step up this year. I think this year was a bit unfortunate becasue over a 162 game season we would've been able to test drive a lot of these guys and build up some innings. Next year is going to be a grind, and some of these guys may start off hot, but can they keep that up through September and into October? This team will go as far as the rotation takes it.
Which leads me to my next point - we need Bauer. I've been a backer of his and continue to be. Would we have TOO MUCH pitching? Maybe, but at the same time, we all know injuries happen and championship teams always have LUXURY at positions. Look at the yankees, injuries happen and they continue to win. That's a sign of a team with depth. Same with the Astros of years past, Cubs, etc. So to me, you bring in Bauer and just roll. If you have injuries like the Padres did at the end of the season, instead of having nobody ... (still don't get why they didn't pitch Gore or Patino more) you now have Cease, Steiver, Kopech, etc. to step up.
Other SP I'd consider are Rich Hill and Alex Wood and Corey Kluber. Same as last season. Those guys CAN step in and win you playoff games. Those guys are also cheap, 1-2 year deals, and only going to give you 100ip because of injuries. Which, with our amount of possible SP? Can be a good thing. Outside of that? I pass on the SP out there.
Bullpen: I think we're good, but always can look to add.
Offense: I mean, you look around and you say where are the holes? Fortunately there aren't many. RF is obvious, but outside of that you really don't need anything if you believe in Engel as your 4OF, Mendick as your back UTIL IF, and Collins/Mercedes as your backup C. I for one am in that category.
So where can we improve ... I mean I think you have to be content, and likely happy with Vaughn at DH/1B, so nothing there. Abreu isn't going anywhere. Madrigal/Anderson either. Moncada? This will take heat, but I call him Joe Crede. type of guy who CAN be a game changer, but more likely will be a nice bat, nice glove, but never reach his potential. I would be open to trading him (mostly because who else as you continue to go around the diamond -- not Eloy, not Robert, etc) but there's nobody waiting in the wings...so il think you're set almost every except for RF. So really the ONLY player I COULD see trading is Moncada. Which I'm not saying we should do at all. Just food for thought as I compose this post.
What YOU can do. As teams are cutting costs, you can pick up guys who's contracts aren't ideal, a bit bloated, etc. but for free. So essentially a FA signing. Also the contracts in the offseason should be smaller ... so I'd like to be aggressive in this front.
Names for Consideration:
Chris Sale, Xander Boegarts (again this is where maybe getting creative with Yoan which nets you a SP could work in a way ... trade a Yoan then trade for Xander -- it's a little bit video game'esque, but there are going to be franchises looking to dump salary, so i think you can explore all options), Charlie Blackmon (Rox pay for part of contract or include a Hampson, Rodgers, Gray, etc.) Lorenzo Cain, Avi Garcia, Starling Marte, Springer.
Weird thing is if you look to all the CF and RF on teams right now? Not that many viable options, or sure less than I expected.
Sorry for the nature of this post.. it was really top of mind type of writing ... in synopsis ... i think you talk to the red sox and see what they're willing to do and for what price. i think its conceivable to get a Sale (if you're comfortable with his health), Xander, JD Martinez (the last two really don't have much of a spot unless other moves are made) I think you also call the Rockies who need to shed payroll, have some talent, and can find a match ... aka pairing an expensive RF like Blackmon (i understand the splits, age, etc. etc.) and maybe net yourself a nice other piece... Marquez, Gray, Hampson, Dahl, Rodgers, etc. Likewise, someone like Lorenzo Cain in RF, or Avi ... could make some sense too.
My ideal offseason:
Net me Sale, Bauer, Kluber as tier 1 choices. Stroman, Hill, Wood as Tier 2 choices - but please net me at least one outside arm that CAN be a difference maker in the playoffs. So don't mess around with Quintana and Robbie Rays of the world.
OF - Tier one: Lorenzo Cain, Springer, Starling Marte, Blackmon (w a prospect or talent attached -- aka Gray, Marquez, Rodgers(not sure where you put him unless part of bigger trade/offseason).
UTIL - acquire a nice vet, not really necessary in my opinion - I am super comfortable w Engel and Mendick + Leury etc. but maybe you make a move.
Only guy I'd be willing to trade from our exisiting "core" is Yoan Moncada, i understand that is unlikely to happen, and would need several corresponding moves to make sense (aka Xander or Rodgers, or something, without those being net positive, not sure it's truly worth the risk unless you're receiving back a bonafide ace in return).