Leaderboard

When Reinsdorf heard the news

And Albert Belle goes to $99.5M Frank's 1999 extension goes to $109,671,731.09. MAGIC

People are raving about the Dodgers and the Blue Jays offenses. But let's just look at how much better the White Sox offense is likely to be this year. Here are the deadbeats of the 2021 offense. Player AB H HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Hernandez 194 45 3 0.232 0.309 0.299 0.608 69 Eaton 189 38 5 0.209 0.298 0.344 0.642 76 Mercedes 240 65 7 0.271 0.328 0.404 0.732 100 Goodwin 235 52 8 0.221 0.319 0.374 0.693 90 Mendick 164 36 2 0.22 0.303 0.289 0.589 64 Hamilton 127 28 2 0.22 0.242 0.378 0.62 67 Lamb 113 24 6 0.212 0.321 0.389 0.71 94 Madrigal 200 61 2 0.305 0.349 0.425 0.774 112 Jimenez (2021) 213 53 10 0.249 0.303 0.437 0.74 100 Vaughn (against RH) 298 66 7 0.222 0.277 0.332 0.61 69 Collins 195 41 4 0.21 0.33 0.338 0.669 66 Zavala 93 17 5 0.183 0.24 0.376 0.616 66 Totals 2261 526 61 0.232 I'm not calculating collective OBP, SLG, OPS or OPS+, but you can see the situation. We had 2 players at league average - Mercedes and Jimenez - and 1 above - Madrigal. Everyone else was below, often well below. EDIT: The 2021 team had 5357 ABs, with a .256 BA, .336 OBP, and .422 SLG, and .758 OPS. Most of these guys pulled those averages down. Overall, 2261/5357 is 42% of the ABs. Now here is a possible lineup of the 2022 Sox using their 2021 numbers. Player AB H HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Anderson 527 163 17 0.309 0.338 0.469 0.806 118 Robert total 275 93 13 0.338 0.378 0.567 0.945 156 Abreu 566 148 30 0.261 0.351 0.481 0.831 125 Grandal 279 67 23 0.24 0.42 0.52 0.939 157 Jimenez (2020) 213 63 14 0.296 0.332 0.559 0.891 139 Sheets (v. RHP) 160 38 11 0.268 0.344 0.556 0.9 145 Vaughan (v. LHP) 119 32 8 0.269 0.383 0.555 0.938 153 Pollock 384 114 21 0.297 0.355 0.536 0.892 137 Moncada 520 137 14 0.263 0.375 0.412 0.787 117 Harrison 505 141 8 0.279 0.341 0.4 0.741 106 Totals 3548 996 159 0.28 (Note that Excel rounded off numbers, so 0.28 equal .280, for example.) I've used Jimenez's 2020 numbers to approximate what he might look like in 2022. I've used the splits for Sheets and Vaughn because they make a perfect platoon. And I've moved Yoan Moncada to the bottom of the lineup because that's probably where he should hit unless he returns to his 2019 numbers. There are 10 players above, because I've put Sheets and Vaughn together as a platoon. Here are the other 3 players likely to stay on the roster when the team cuts down to 26 players. I used Reese McGuire's totals against right handers because he has massive split differences and would likely play most of his time against righties. EDIT: The group above, if healthy, could end up with as many as 4500 ABs. Robert could add 250-300, Grandal could add 100, Jimenez could add 300, Sheets/Vaughn could add 250, and Pollock could add 50. Player AB H HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Garcia 415 111 5 0.267 0.335 0.376 0.711 96 McGuire (v. RHP) 158 43 1 0.272 0.333 0.367 0.7 95 Engel 123 31 7 0.252 0.336 0.496 0.832 124 This trio could get the lions share of the remaining ABs. And here are a couple of tidbits to consider. What if Luis Robert hit like he did after he returned from injury last year, or if Moncada returned to his 2019 numbers? Player AB H HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Moncada (2019) 511 161 25 0.315 0.367 0.548 0.915 140 Robert after return 180 63 12 0.35 0.389 0.622 1.011 170 ************* What to make of these numbers? 1. Everyone of the main starters has an OPS above league average. To provide some context here, the Blue Jays led baseball last year with a collective OPS+ of 115. The White Sox were 4th at 107. Every hitter on the Sox except Josh Harrison is likely to exceed an OPS+ of 115, often by a LOT. And the 3 bench players are divided, with Engel above, and Garcia and McGuire just below league average. 2. Most of the team is getting better. Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Gavin Sheets, and Andrew Vaughn are all on the upswing. Yoan Moncada could be too. It's possible that Abreu, Grandal, Pollock and Harrison will decline somewhat. But with more on the upswing, it's possible the Sox could hit better than these numbers. 3. The aggregate totals are way below the likely totals because they include partial years from key players. You have partial years or small samples from Robert, Jimenez, Grandal, Sheets/Vaughn, and to a lesser extent Anderson and Pollock. So the HR's you might expect from this group, for example, should be much higher. The Sox led the AL in HRs in 2020. They might vie for the ML lead in 2022. 4. Unfortunately, there may be injuries this year too. But the team is in a better place to respond. Of course we don't want to lose Robert or Jimenez or Grandal again. But if we do, we are in a better position to respond. Pollock can play CF, or Engel can. Sheets/Vaughn can cover the outfield corners. Garcia can cover everywhere. And we still have some productive hitters in AAA in Jake Burger, for example. ************ So, while I'm concerned about the pitching, I believe the White Sox offense could be the best in baseball this year if everyone stays healthy. EDIT: One thing that's kind of fascinating is that I looked up the top scoring White Sox team of all time. It's the 2000 club, which scored 978 runs. They had a collective OPS of .826. The 2021 team had an OPS of .758. 7 of the 2022 regulars exceeded an .826 OPS last year or in Jimenez's case, in 2020. So, if all went perfectly, perhaps the Sox could beat that total. But 978 runs? The Astros led baseball last year with 863. Last time a MLB team exceeded 900 runs was in 2019, when 4 teams did it. GO SOX!!

C- 2nd MLB; 1st AL; 1st ALC (before McGuire trade). 1B- 13th MLB; 7th AL; 2nd ALC. 2B- 27th MLB; 14th AL; 5th ALC. 3B- 8th MLB; 6th AL; 2nd ALC. SS- 9th MLB; 6th AL; 2nd ALC. LF- 7th MLB; 4th AL; 1st ALC (before Meadows trade to DET. TB is 5th MLB and DET is 16th). CF- 4th MLB; 3rd AL; 2nd ALC. RF- 23rd MLB; 13th AL; 5th ALC (before Pollack trade). DH- 11th MLB; 7th AL; 2nd ALC. SP- 7th MLB; 2nd AL; 1st ALC (as of April 5; don’t shoot the messenger!). RP- 3rd MLB; 2nd AL; 1st ALC (as of April 4). Overall: 5th MLB; 4th AL; 1st ALC (as of today; position rankings adjusted for late trades/acquisitions. The next best ALC team is MIN at 14th).

The Twins pitching staff is horrendous and a half ucl'd paddack does not change that.

Managerial in-game decisions (lineups, pitching changes, bunting, stealing, etc.) are overrated. Not saying they don’t matter, but they don’t matter nearly to the degree you would think from reading this message board. Oh, and it was the pitching staff who failed to deliver in the playoffs last year.

I have nothing to contribute at this time but look forward to grabbing some popcorn and reading this thread regularly. Thank you.

The issue I have with this is the alternative became Vince Velasquez. I wouldn't want to invest long term dollars into Carlos Rodon. I understand that. But the Sox didn't have to. They could have made a one-year investment to a pitcher that just gave them a 5 WAR in 2021, and have thin pitching depth in their organization. It would have just cost them money, nothing else. "Taking a chance" is an overstatement when it's a one-year commitment to a player that JUST produced for you. And looking at things in hindsight, if you're asking me if I'd rather have Rodon or Harrison/Velazquez/Kelly in 2022...I'm taking Rodon. Mendick can play the Harrison role, VV SUCKS, and who knows when Joe Kelly actually gets here.

Reasons I wanted the Sox to keep Rodon. 1. Best starter on the Sox first half. 2. Best pitcher in AL first half. 3. Built up to 132 innings last year after 2 years of next to nothing. Suggests fatigue was his arm problem at the end of last year, not some structural issue. 4. Would have given the Sox 6 legit starters, plus Lopez. 5. Could have used a 6-man rotation to lighten everyone's load, keep Keuchel from reaching the innings needed to vest him another year, and keep Kopech from being gassed before the playoffs. 6. If someone went down, could just shift to normal 5-man rotation to cover gaps. 7. Left handed 8. Only required 2-year commitment, with opt out after 1 year, if the Sox matched the Giants' offer. Had a QO been attached to Rodon, would he have gotten even this much? At this point, it's water under the bridge. The Sox are short on quality starters, and without Kelly for now and Crochet for the year, short in the bullpen as well. They are going to have to hit their way to a title, it appears.

VAfan, you do have a highly optimistic take but you gave numbers and analysis to authenticate it . Let’s hope they bear out. I’m just happy the main offensive pieces are healthy going in.

Crazy how the quickly the pen went from a major strength to a major question mark in a week.

1. White Sox 2-5 Who cares?

Trying to get right link for MILB. Sorry, I didn't have a spring training. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/stats/affiliates?teamId=145&date=04/06/2022 https://www.milb.com/scores/chicago-white-sox/2022-04-06

No manager makes every decision with a 100% success rate. In game decisions are important but team culture and attitude are also important. Last year the team stayed in the race with major injuries. If he wasn't so disliked by fans the results should have had him in manager of the year discussions. I could see him earning a Manager of the Year award. Is he the best in baseball or even the best in our division? I don't think so. But he's who we have.

No. I didn't say that. If that's what you read, I'll try to explain it again. None of these decisions are made in isolation. In the analytics department Duncan doesn't have the only say. TLR doesn't ignore all of the information given to him by the analytics department. Essentially I am saying everything that you want to blame on a single person is wrong. No one makes the decisions by themselves.

TLR is going to get Manager of the Year. Laugh at me now I don't mind.

I'm saying the decisions are not solely based on one person. I'm sure even in the analytics department, Duncan doesn't have the only say and whatever he says goes regardless of any other input. Everyone says TLR is too old school. Well the old school way was for the Manger to manage the players andet the coaches do their work.

I like Paddack too, but if the Twins end up with him instead of Montas I'll consider that a win. Particularly if they're trading from their big league roster to do it.

He was brought in to win in the playoffs. Until he does so with this team, he is a failure.

Can't wait for us to rest guys up for the playoffs

Out of options guys who have 0 MLB ABs, net you a lottery ticket at best.

Not official, but Merkin tweeted it out last night and DVS had an article mostly laying it out.

He struck out 40% in AA

How many other RF prospects are MLB ready right now, are ready to be traded, and have the upside of Adolfo? I believe the consensus is that one of the teams with high waiver priority would pick him up. So let’s say the Pirates have a roster spot and don’t have a 4th outfielder who projects some upside. Wouldn’t it make sense for them to pick up Adolfo for a mid-level prospect if they think the Orioles would grab him first? Same goes for any of the other teams I listed. You’re simultaneously buying low and high on Adolfo. He’s looking great and is MLB ready while having diminished value because of his lack of options. Adolfo has always been fairly well-respected for his skillset but he’s been injured. If I recall correctly Kieth Law or another prospects guy used to talk about Adolfo being a borderline top 100 prospect if he could ever be healthy. I’d love for a 2017-2020 Sox team to have traded away a prospect for current moment Adolfo. He’s more interesting now than Mazara, Palka, or Eaton were.

MLB trade values has him at a 2.5. Would love if they could get a lefty pen piece with some/any MLB experience such as this deal from one of the teams you mentioned.

Sheets should get most starts at DH when facing right handers. The difference between him and Vaughn was massive last year. Maybe Vaughn closes that gap, but to start him over Sheets against a RH would be like starting Leury Garcia over Luis Robert in CF. The wRC+ gap between Sheets and Vaughn was around 80, with Vaughn being the second worst hitter on the team, better than only Zavala. Just look at the numbers in the original post above.

Yup. Just like last offseason when they acquired Lynn, the number 1 priority should have been a playoff caliber starting pitcher. If Scherzer/Verlander/Ray were too rich/risky, then they should have gone to Gausman/Stroman or even Rodon. Unacceptable to just completely misjudge the market. Sox play in a great city, should have the highest playoff probability in baseball and a route to winning for years to come. They had a very enticing offer if they could just compete monetarily. They need to stop expecting the market to come down to their internal valuations which have been incredibly low. Especially with the minute potential the team had to acquire this type of player via trade, they should have understood the necessity to strike in FA and convert on a big arm early. I think they tried, but were woefully low on Verlander, Ray and probably others. Seems like they didn't give Rodon much thought or pursuit at all.

Saw they are now #1 at catcher following McGuire acquisition.

I know Rodon has historically been a baseball player during the season months and a hunter/video game player in the offseason but he did have legitimate injuries and combined for 41 innings in 2019 and 2020. Expecting him to bounce back from that, even with a renewed work ethic and rapport with Katz, and throw 32 starts with 200 innings pitch is unreasonable.

As evidence by the team that won the WS last year, you don't have to be the greatest on paper going into opening day.

Gotta love a positive post! Thanks man! It isn't all doom and gloom.

Madrigal was actually above average despite all the talk about his bad base running and fielding in his rookie year. In his limited time in 2021 he was a positive base runner (UBR 2.0 )and fielder ( OAA 1.0, UZR .6) As a hitter in both 2020 and 2021 his wRC+ were respectively 111 and 113 and the Sox will miss the financial flexibility he provided. It sucked that like many of our young players that he was injured too much. I will also say that Vaughn will be an upgrade. I don't think there's any chance his 2nd year in MLB will be worse than his 1st year. Robert should be a huge upgrade because he haven't even got to see him play yet for any extended period of time. Eloy is capable of doing better than last year since he has proven he can slug .500+ . He also just has to stay on the field more.

And I’m sure you’ll find something else about the “complaining” to complain about yourself. Being critical of your front office’s moves in no way makes you less of a fan. Implying such is BS. Blind optimism and labelling anyone critical as “fans” as if they are some how lesser is just as annoying to read as the overly doom & gloom pessimism. You don’t have to be here if it’s such a drag.

Forget it, Jake...It's Soxtalk.

Since as long as I can remember, my dad and I watch Field of Dreams the night before Opening Day.

I have no concerns about the offense. Harrison > (last year's 2Bmen) Pollock > (last year's RFers) Just gotta hope it's enough to make up for the lack of starting pitching depth.

If the offense is relatively healthy, then yes it should be better than last year: Robert & Eloy both available for full seasons and getting better Grandal even more productive with his knee issues resolved Pollack providing superior production in RF for ~120 games over Eaton and filler Vaughn taking a big 2nd year jump (he won’t platooned though) Moncada’s power numbers improving as he continues to recover from long COVID Deeper bench (Leury, Sheets, Engel) and AAA depth (Burger, Romy, Haseley). The problem is for as much optimism as there is on the positional side of things, there should be an equal amount of pessimism on the pitching side of things.

So when the Sox rake on offense I guess all you guys will just complain about something else. Not sure why appreciating the Sox is seen so negatively by Sox "fans". And if the Sox win anything, just don't dare come on here and celebrate it.

Not sure how you came to the conclusion that he didn’t care about improving. I don’t think that was the issue, the issue is that he just isn’t that good.

This team still has Giolito, Cease, Lynn (eventually), Kopech as starters. It also has Timmy, Pito, Eloy, Grandal, Moncada, Robert, Pollock, Andrew Vaughn/Sheets…do people realize how legit that list is. We complain about Moncada and that 4 WAR but he is like there sixth best player. Robert is MVP type of players, Pito is former MVP, TA is a superstar and regular contender for batting title, Grandal best offensive catcher in game, Eloy and Vaughn guys who are going to be no doubt .900 OPS guys, Pollock not much worse when healthy….like that is legit.

Grandal got hurt, whole big thing, so they are going to try and have Cueto play catcher. We’ll see if it works out, guy still has a hell of an arm.

I'd go ahead and schedule an appointment to get that neck looked at.

"Don’t give up on your dreams, or your dreams will give up on you.” "Perennials are flowers that eventually fade, while division championships are memories that will remain with us for a lifetime."

Now we are to the point of almost wishing injuries for Rodon (and Madrigal it seems) to prove a point? The better they do, shouldn't that partially be a reflection on the organization? If they all get hurt, why would other teams in the future want to trade for Sox players/prospects? Do you really believe the Giants are so dumb as to be easily fooled by Scott Boras PR stunts?

I believe I could be in the best shape of my life, If I started eating better and worked out 6 days a week…..which seems about just as likely to happen as the White Sox offense staying healthy all season.

On paper, overall, no. If the offense doesn’t suffer the same catastrophic injuries, that will be better. The pitching has already suffered serious injury even after losing a 4 WAR starter w/o replacement. With little depth to fall back on and luck already not on their side, it’s tough to see them as an improved team overall heading into opening day.

Detroit Cleveland Chicago Minnesota KC

Whew the title had me believing the thread was about the Sox going from first to last. ?

Yeah, I'd always just eat the palmer house and pistachio. The sherbet was originally intended to be a pallet cleanser before you dive into the other flavors, but I feel like it's grown over the years and is there's way too much of it in the pics they posted.

I'm pulling for him.