Have been watching this for a while and have to take the bus today because of weather so let’s write this.
A solid predictor of future performance and team quality is run differential. If teams are winning close games but getting blown out in losses, they will have a record better than their run differential and often that means their record will correct eventually with a batch of losses in close games.
The White Sox are at -30 this year. That is 24th in baseball, between the Rockies and the Orioles. This is legitimately bad. They are way worse than the Cubs or Red Sox on this, they are down with the Tigers.
This is a team that has played extremely bad baseball overall, and this is why the fans are pessimistic despite their record - they have played way worse than their record. This is also bad enough that its not something that one player returning from injury will fix.
Whatever other metric you attach - strength of schedule or whatever else - doesn’t help this.
Context is useful here. Last year the White Sox had a +147 run differential - not the Dodgers or Astros but a legit playoff team. This is a team playing dramatically worse than last year. A few other teams like the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Reds have similar dramatic drop offs and they are not good teams right now.
What about last years’ Braves? In mid May they had a -15 run differential. By June 1 it was back to close to 0, it hung close to 0 throughout June, then they were at +40 by the trade deadline - not a dominant team but a legitimate wild card threat before adding players. That’s what we need to be doing literally right now - winning games solidly and moving that back towards 0 by mid June.
Right now this team looks like pretenders because they look like the Orioles or Tigers. In run differential they dropped from 0 during that first losing streak, hovered for a week, and then kept getting worse. If we are talking about a team on Memorial Day that has a -40 run differential, which is what they’re on pace for then they might well be a true 3rd place team.