Felt like digging into this a bit more today.
Robert gets 445 PAs and a .793 OPS. That's about exactly where his offense was before playing through the wrist injury dragged him down. So, this is projecting that he is healthy for a much larger portion of the season, although not the full year. Also, about 1/3 of his value comes from his defense, but his defense last year was a negative for him due to a big dropoff in his range after the hip injury, so this is projecting a return to positive defense from him. If that's not the case, then that puts a ceiling on his ability to perform of something like 3-4 WAR if fully healthy. He's got to get defensive value back if he is going to be a 5 WAR/All Star level player, or he's got to hit better than he did pre-injury last year.
Grandal is projected for a .750 OPS and 435 PAs. That's really optimistic based on his .570 OPS and 376 PAs last year, he hasn't had 400+ PAs in a year since Milwaukee.
Zavala gets a .630 OPS projection. So maybe the real catcher's spot is Grandal gets fewer PAs than that, but Zavala has a little bit better performance with the bat.
Moncada .742 OPS, 540 plate appearances. Compared to the .626 OPS last year that's a big improvement, but only gets him up to 2 WAR.
Eloy, 445 PAs with a .808 OPS. That's kinda splitting 2021 and 2022 on offense, but you definitely hope he can outhit that if he stays healthy. He only had 327 PAs last year, so they have projected better health but not a big boost on offense.
Vaughn is projected as an average defender, Eloy shows up as far more negative on defense so presumably they have him spending time in LF. Vaughn comes in at a .818 OPS with the team leading 593 PAs. Average defense, a solid OPS, and plays the whole year only gets you 2 WAR out of 1b though.
Sosa is a 1 WAR player with a .662 OPS. Slightly positive defense.
Anderson 476 PAs, .756 OPS. 351 and .734 for him last year, so projecting better health and better offense.
Colas with a .685 OPS.
On the pitching side, Cease is a 3.6 WAR pitcher, he definitely can outdo that but the projection systems are always going to be conservative after breakout years.
Lynn is throwing 131 innings with an ERA of 3.9. Both slightly better than last year.
Joe Kelly has a 3.72 ERA. Crochet is listed with 48 innings.
Lopez with a 4.16 ERA. So ZiPS likes Kelly better than Lopez, lol.
Giolito throws 160 innings with a 3.9 ERA.
Kopech throws 110 innings with a 4.24 ERA.
Clevinger, 114 innings with a 4.58 ERA.
Overall, this is a projection that says "In general the White Sox who are here will be mostly healthier than last year and will perform better overall, and that takes them to bein a .500 team again."
You can see a path to them being better than this. Robert's defense is better, Moncada's offense is a little better, Colas hits better than that. Kopech, Clevinger, Cease, Lynn all have upside in the rotation if they stay healthy. Add in an extra 2-WAR outfielder for help somewhere. There's a path here to 90 wins, but it's very much an "Everything goes right" path. They've generally projected better health and better performance from almost the entire lineup already, so there's not a ton of room for guys to dramatically outperform that. There is room for the rotation to dramatically outperform that, but it requires exceptional health from the starters, you can't have Cease get hurt. Everyone stays healthier in the lineup, the rotation performs better than these projections - that's a path to nearly 40 WAR and about 90 wins, which should put them competitive for the playoffs.
A path to below 80 wins? Almost everyone in the lineup is already projected to be healthier and better than last year. They just have to do what they did last year and they're well below .500.
Looking at this, I'm not sure this team has a path to 100 wins. You need a ROY type season from Colas, an MVP type season from Vaughn, huge seasons from guys in the rotation, Moncada to find his 2019 form or something like that.