The SP market really heated up today as predicted. With Tyler Glasnow off the board, these are the SP with TOR potential available:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (9/$225)
Blake Snell (7/$200M)
Jordan Montgomery (6/$150M)
Dylan Cease (2/$20M)
For teams with less means or willingness to take on long-term risk, middle of the rotation starters available include:
Shota Imanaga (5/$85M)
Lucas Giolito (2/$44M)
Marcus Stroman (2/$44M)
Michael Wacha (3/$36M)
Shane Bieber (1/$12M)
After that you’re looking at a mix of lower ceiling guys, wild cards, scrap heap signings, and players with off the field baggage. For instance, Mike Clevinger is the top pitcher on both MLBTR & Fangraphs’ top FA lists not mentioned above.
Things worth pointing out. That contract projection for Yamamoto is likely light and 10/$300M is very possible. Snell greatly outproduced his peripherals last year and has only made 28+ starts once in the past five years. Montgomery has performed well in recent years but with below average stuff and K rate. The MOR guys all have warts hence why their prices are expected to be much lower.
Given the amount of teams desperate for quality SP, it’s not hard to see why a SP like Cease who ranks 1st in starts made, 4th in K rate, 5th in Stuff+, and 8th in fWAR from 2021 to 2023 would be incredibly high demand.
Two points of reference on Dylan’s potential value. Free agent wise, his best comp would be Aaron Nola, who got a 7/$175M deal in free agency. Yes, Nola has the lengthier track record, but both are coming off somewhat similar 2023 seasons after monster 2022 seasons. Regardless, I think this would be a fair expectation for Cease. However, for surplus valuation purposes, on a two year deal in this market, I think he’d get $75M to $80M. Given projected earnings of $20M to $25M over the next two seasons, we’re talking about $50M to $60M in expected surplus value.
Trade wise, Glasnow is the best comp and he just went for what I’d consider a 50 FV pitching prospect plus a lesser OF prospect. Based on an old Fangraphs assessment of prospect value, a 50 FV pitching prospect would be expected to provide roughly $20 in value over the life of their control period. Looking at Glasnow, I think an optimistic projection would be ~4 wins next year, which would put his expected surplus value at ~$15M. However, Glasnow has truly elite stuff and offers a team like the Dodgers even more value because they can more easily manage his innings until the playoffs. Add in the extension, and you can see why he commanded the package that he did.
So what does this mean for a potential Cease trade? Given his stuff, durability, control, & cost, I would expect him to be valued at the higher end of the range or ~$60M in expected surplus value. Conceptually, I believe that means we should expect one 55 FV prospect, one 50 FV prospect, and one 45 FV prospect or alternatively three 50 FV type prospects of varying degrees. Packages I could see based on this analysis include:
Orioles: Kjerstad, Ortiz, & Horvath
Dodgers: Busch, Sheehan, & Pages
Braves: AJ S-S, Waldrep, & Grissom
A fourth lesser prospect would be possible in each trade, but I ultimately expect three potentially impactful pieces coming back regardless of trade partner with the quality of the third piece dictated by the headliner.
TLDR - Cease should get us an absolute haul and it’s only a matter of time.