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Declining Slowing Worse on defense Worse on offense Also an asshole. other than that, great move.

Dane Dunning in 2020. Here are his games. 1. Beat Detroit 5-3. No decision. Pitched 4.1 innings 2. Beat the Royals 5-2. Pitched 5 innings. 3. Beat the Royals 7-4. No decision. 4.2 innings. 4. Beat Pittsburgh 8-1. 6 innings. 5. Beat Minnesota 6-2. 7 innings 6. Lost to Cleveland 4-7. 4 innings. 7. Beat the Cubs 9-5. No decision. 3 innings 8. Lost to Oakland in the playoffs 6-4. Pitched .2 innings, gave up 2 baserunners and was pulled. He was given 6.56 runs support in the regular season games he started, never receiving less than 4 runs of support. So, in 8 games, Dunning made it to 5 or more innings 3 times, or 37.5% of the time. He gave up 0 runs twice (plus Oakland), and otherwise gave up 3, 3, 2, 4, and 5 runs. ************* Meanwhile, I'm not going to lay out all of Lance Lynn's starts. but in 13 starts, he never pitched LESS than 5 innings. He AVERAGED about 6.2 innings per start. Dunning gave up 17 runs (15 ER) in 34 innings. Lynn gave up 34 runs (31 ER) in 84 innings. But 10 of those 34 runs were in his last start against Houston. Otherwise, he gave up the following run totals in his starts, 0, 0, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, 6, 1, 1, 3, 10. (His only 2 bad games were against Houston.) He received 4.26 runs per game in support, with 1 run twice, and 3 runs 4 times, plus 4 runs 3 times. In 7 games, Dunning had 4 runs once, 5 runs twice, plus single games of 6, 7, 8, and 9 runs. So, if you gave Lance Lynn the kind of run support Dane Dunning received in 2020, he would have been 11-2, or maybe 10-3. Plus, let's look at Lynn's 2019 season. 16-11, 3.67 ERA, 208 innings, 246 Ks, 141 ERA+, 7.5 WAR. Lance Lynn is a horse. He has the potential to pitch 200 innings. Go into or complete the 7th inning in a ton of his starts. ********** So how to evaluate the trade. 1. The Sox are MUCH better in 2021 with Lance Lynn. They have a workhorse pitcher they can slot into the top 3 spots who will keep them in just about every game, and will save their bullpen. 2. Lance Lynn costs only $8 million for 2021. This is way below what his market value should be given his recent production. This won't prevent the Sox from making any other moves they want to make. 3. Lance Lynn might be extended past 2021. He'll be 34 in May, so he won't command a huge deal for years 2022, and 2023. He should be the kind of pitcher the Sox can afford. Of course we'd all like the Sox to spend more, but we're likely never going to get there. 4. Dane Dunning is a maybe pitcher. Who knows what Dunning's upside is? It's probably not higher than a 4th or 5th starter, maybe a ceiling of a #3 starter. But for 2021, he wasn't going to give the Sox 30 starts, and he seldom pitched even 5 full innings. 5. Dane Dunning is older than Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech and only a year younger than Reynaldo Lopez. If Dunning were 23 or 24, you might be able to take his numbers and project him to become a better pitcher. But he's about to be 26. Lopez had pitched seasons of 188 and 184 innings by Dunning's age. So, even though you have more control of Dunning, he's not going to be a full time starter until 2022 at the earliest, when he'll be 27. The White Sox have lots more arms on the way who may have higher ceilings than Dane Dunning. 6. Dane Dunning is NOT Shane Bieber. I just had to respond to the post that suggested Dunning's upside was Bieber. Bieber is YOUNGER than Dunning and has already pitched 406 ML innings compared to Dunning's 34. To even make that comparison is just ridiculous. ********** 7. Should the White Sox have just signed Trevor Bauer? Bauer, will be 30 in January, pitched since 2012, career ERA of 3.9, only had a sub-4 ERA in 2 of 9 seasons, total WAR of 17.5. Lynn, will be 34 in May 2021, pitched since 2011, career ERA of 3.57, has had a sub-4 ERA in 8 of 9 seasons (missed 2016), total WAR of 24.2. Also, in 2020, Bauer's best year, he fattened up by pitching against DET 2x, PIT 2x, KC 1X. He also faced MIL 3x, Cubs 2x, and White Sox 1x. Lynn has been the much more consistent pitcher of the 2. When you do a cost comparison, Lynn comes out well ahead of Bauer. ************ My bottom line. I'm good with this trade. I hope the Sox extend Lynn because I think he'll remain effective for a few more years. Just look at Charlie Morton's years when he was 33-35. Lynn could be as good, and will pitch more innings than Morton. I also don't believe Dunning is ready to carry much of a load, is pretty old for a guy just starting out, and the Sox have 3 RHPs ranked just below Dunning in their pipeline in Kelley, Stiever and Thompson, who are 19, 23, and 20. Plus we still have Kopech and Cease who have more upside. So, GO SOX!

Lance Lynn is an upgrade for next year; a substantial one over the uncertainty they still had in their youthful rotation. Lynn is a horse - both in size and durability, he could wear Bartolo Colon as a backpack and still throw 200 innings. There are positives about Lynn, as has been recently documented he added a cutter which enabled him to find much success following a season in which his career looked like it might be coming to a close. He has the chance of being a top tier pitcher, even if I wouldn't be shocked to see him fall back into the 3-4 fWAR range - which would still be a substantial upgrade. Last season, Lynn was good, but not as great as he had been the year prior; his FIP trickled over 4, but that was driven heavily by a very poor last start. Lynn will also be 34 years old, but he strikes me as a pitcher who is more likely than not to be durable and age as gracefully as his body jiggles when he delivers a pitch to home. The problem with Lynn isn't the player - who is a clear upgrade - but the process by which the Sox are moving towards their competitive window. Rick Hahn told us for the past four years that when the window was open, the White Sox would have no interest in trading assets for Rentals. They would fill the gaps with their financial flexibility; utilizing the fact that they had not spent money for the past six years, flush with cash, the White Sox would fill their remaining holes with financial investments in FA or, as I assumed, by absorbing big money contracts to limit any return they'd have to give in trades. There were pieces out there that met this claim; a Darvish/Heyward package almost seemed like a perfect fit for a team that needed a defensive RF who could swing a little, and a rotation anchor. The White Sox instead traded for a pitcher not just because he was good, but also because he was cheap - make no mistake about it, the 8 million dollar price tag was every bit as enticing as his production that came along with it. The White Sox could have absorbed salary from multiple franchises to take on a high quality SP without surrendering a viable asset, but instead they went the route of doing exactly what they promised they wouldn't; trading a viable asset for a one year rental at the beginning of the window. Don't blame the fans for trusting the word of their FO; "THE MONEY WILL BE SPENT" Kenny Williams embarrassingly claimed following the White Sox falling out with Manny Machado. The window is open, and the White Sox are continuing to operate like a small market team. Following the Lynn trade, and barring an unforeseen signing of someone like Springer (which is not happening), the White Sox are selling their fans on being all-in next year... and their payroll likely won't be in the top 10 in all of baseball. That's like screaming "I'm all in" at a poker table, when you have only 3 dollars left at a $1/$2 table. Dane Dunning was a nice piece, but I think Sox fans enjoyed him much more due to the pitchers around him. Dane threw strikes, while other young arms - namely Cease - struggled significantly to do so. As a fan, strikes are enjoyable but the Sox also could not have sold higher on Dane. Coming off Tommy John and turning 27 next year, Dunning was likely nearing a finished product. He also was sheltered by the White Sox last year; making 5 of his 8 starts worse one of the five worst offenses in MLB. Could he continue in a long line of recent arms who greatly exceeded expectations due to elite command? Sure, he absolutely could... but he could also be out of baseball in two years. Pitching is hard, and pitchers always have an edge when they are unknown. I have always said a key to a good rebuild is trading away the assets you know the industry overvalues; only time will tell if the White Sox chose the right starter to move. The White Sox are definitely better going into next year by a good bit; they needed a horse and durable arm to throw out there and they got exactly that. The problem isn't the player, but it's that we all trusted the process and the process turned out to be one Lance Lynn sized pile of shit sold by a cheap ownership group who had no intention on ever repaying the fans for the misery they were put through by not even trying to put a viable MLB product on the field.

Who is the third one besides Collins and Anderson?

The important thing to remember is that this means we basically got Giolitto, Lopez and Lynn for Avery Weems.

For anyone else like me that either doesn't like Lynn or didn't want to move Dunning and is looking for a reason to accept or even like the trade, let's look at what some of our opponents have to say about it: Twins Reddit - "A) fuck. Good trade for the WS and they addressed a huge need for a reasonable cost" Texas fans - "We got a pitcher with a history of recent TJS. What else is new?I Ihope this pans out." "His value spiked a bit last year, too, which is a mild concern. Sox are selling high." "White Sox look so good right now except for their manager." "To be fair, we don't know exactly what the white sox gave up yet. And I just don’t think the league was ever going to value Lynn as an ace." "Sox fans melting down they gave up six years of Dunning for one year of a MORP. I love the internet." BONUS nod for the fanboys: "I am a tiny bit devastated we didn’t wrangle Yermin from them."

do you ever have a positive take on anything?

If you know he was the one who didn't laugh at it then you must be the one who did, correct?

Really just want Hahn to say "we don't believe in handing out starting jobs in the offseason, but there can be exceptions. And that exception is Yermin Mercedes will be the starting DH for this team, his minor league stats will translate exactly, and everyone on the internet was right about everything."

Rojas hasn't proven anything in the MLB. He's not going to be expensive add. Schwarber has hit in the big leagues. People forget Hahn targeted and acquired Eaton. He is on board with this move. As for the manager, Hahn definitely wanted Hinch but also really valued the potential of a search process. He wanted to interview several other guys to learn about the processes of other teams, the teams the Sox will be competing against, etc. Both for the purpose of learning and for a potential competitive edge. Unsolicited personal attacks from this loud mouth. What a shock. Reminding me why I stopped posting frequently.

I'm OK with this move if we are able to get 3 more pitchers at the trade deadline for him.

Hold on, why are people mad about this? ? Dunning is a 4 at best. This site is toxic af these days.

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The amount of over-valuing of unproven, best case ceiling #3 Dane Dunning in this thread is astounding but not suprising.

Wow. Some of the takes in this thread are just unreal. Dane Dunning flashed potential. So what? Lance Lynn is a bonafide ace who can throw 120 pitches every start. He’s the exact type of horse you bring in when you want to win a World Series. my only regret is they didn’t make this trade a few months ago because we’d have beaten the A’s.

Don’t you ever have anything positive to say because it seems like your always whining and complaining about something.

Any chance you guys can take this offline? We are trying to belabor an actual signing, that is a topic that appeals to the masses, and it hasn't been fully beaten into the ground yet. Thanks

If we end the offseason with TLR, Katz, Lynn, Eaton, Brantley, Q, and Hendriks, that isn't too bad. I'd give it a C. Of course it would have been a full grade higher without TLR.

raBBit dropping some truth bombs. I never noticed how annoying Ray was until this week.

Like Joc?

A great move would have been signing Trevor Bauer and not giving up 6 years of a guy who is likely a coinflip to be just as good as Lynn down the road. I agree we're better in 2021 than we were this time yesterday. I've said that multiple times. I just think this move is a clear signal, and I fucking hate what it represents.

It's very very toxic, horrible in fact. You should definitely avoid it.

Dude, you hit the nail right on the head here. Nobody is mad they traded Dunning. Nobody is mad they acquired a pitcher as good as Lynn. People are mad that they traded 6 years of Dunning for only 1 year of Lynn. Dunning might not be shit, that's fine. But this trade was a horrid value and that's what we're complaining about.

Honestly, if I was a Ranger fan, I would be upset with this trade and I could only imagine this board if the trade was in reverse. Sox just got a work horse and I refuse to believe trading for Lynn is not taking advantage of overselling Dunning. I liked Dane but seriously... doesn't anybody remember the hand-wringing of who was going to start game 3??? Lance Lynn is a stud.

So the running theory in the other thread due to the food groups twitter is that it was either Dunning+ for Darvish+Heyward or Dunning+ for Lynn. And if thats the case then I am livid. Not because of Dunning, fuck Dunning. But Darvish is a better pitcher and is signed to a longer term deal. Heyward solidifies RF for a few years. In the end if money was selected over a better return then once again we got jobbed.

NSC ??????

You guys know dunning is older than Bieber right? Also Lance Lynn is good and Shields was not.

It fills “postseason starter you don’t need to warm up someone once game starts”’ role

I’ll wait to get see the whole deal but Lance Lynn for Dunning alone is a big meh from me. But sounds like we’re giving up more. Lance Lynn >>> Dunning but 6 years Of Dunning >>>>>> 1 season of Lance Lynn. we’re better in 2021 than we were an hour ago, but this is pretty meh to me. Just spend fucking money on free agents.

The captivation with team control is getting out of control.

This has nothing to do with that trade. This is all about value NOW. To me the value of having Dunning for 6 years is much greater than Lynn for 1. I don’t think Lynn for 1 is worth it... ok??? Yes Lynn will most likely be better this year but that’s all you get. To me it’s a very short sighted move and worth booing. And bringing up the Eaton trade doesn’t change anything about how it’s looked at today. I get that some will see it differently and that’s ok. I really hope this move doesn’t come back to bight us.

I want Greg’s thoughts.

I’m good with Quintana. I like the guy and I think he’ll be a rock solid 4/5. But in totality, the Lynn trade + Q + Joc makes me sick. Just more of the same BS from the Sox right when they’re on the precipice of greatness they get in their own way. Just spend some fucking money on more than role players you cowards. And don’t trade long term assets for 1 year fixes. Hahn preached this for years, and now I’m supposed to like a deal when he does the opposite?

I'm pretty much down the middle on this move. I really liked Dunning but Lynn is awesome and it feels good to be on this side of trades again. Hoping we can extend him for another year or two though. Lynn, Joc, and Q would be a good offseason. All three are very underrated on this board IMO

Let's say they sign Quintana, Hendriks, Pederson and Brantley. That's still not enough to get past the big boys. The Dodgers had the best regular season team in baseball for YEARS and they had to ADD the 2nd best player on the planet to THAT team in order to win a world series.

My favorite part about this thread is that there are good takes on both sides, but then you have "lol lance lynn is fat lol" and "Dane Dernando Dunning will win the Cy Young". My big concern is that this is an all-in, win now move and I don't trust Jerry to open up the wallet for right field or the #4 and #5 spot in the rotation to make the Sox the clear favorites.

My last piece on the deal. The frustration for me is the Sox are now all in next year - you dont trade for a rental if you aren't. Yet after FA they're payroll will likely rank outside the top 10 in baseball. It's honestly a joke at this point. They just won't spend.

I can't keep up, so Lynn's playoff appearances don't count and are small samples but Dunning proved he sucked because he didn't dominate an elimination game where his manager practically told him he was bad and couldn't do it before anything even happened.

I’m fairly confident 2 of Kopech, Cease, Crochet, Kelley, Dalquist, Thompson, Steiver etc will be about as good as Dunning, one of those guys likely ending up significantly better. Which is why I’m not sweating losing dunning.

This has the Fernando Tatis Jr trade written all over it. Dunning becomes Bieber, Lynn flops.

If you think Lynn is a total pumpkin or Dunning is a future 2 somehow, I understand hating this trade. But Lynn looks like a workhorse 2+, and even one year of that is worth Dunning. TBH, if 4 years from now we are saying we lost the Series because of a hole Dunning left, drafting and development will be the much bigger problem than this trade. Dunning is a fun guy to root for, but his skillset is fairly replaceable. That said, I would have liked this trade a lot better if we were getting 1.5 years of Lynn 6 months ago.

Sox fans will NEVER change. 1. For all the reasons talked about ad nauseam already, the Sox were not going to be players for Springer or Bauer. Would it have been great? Sure, but so would have Harper, Cole, Machado, the list goes on. It's not how the Sox do business, never have. Deal with it or move on. 2. More importantly......The Sox don't need to make a splash. We've become so used to winning the offseason and being trash by July. The foundation is finally in place. The Sox are going to win the World Series with Giolito-Robert-Moncada-Eloy-Grandal-Timmy leading the way. This is the core. Right now they need to add depth to bring this thing to the finish line. Using a guy like Dane Dunning is how you do that.

We are now on the Dunning will be a Cy Young winner pat of the trade reaction discourse I see.

A Dunning + for Lynn, Joc and Quintana offseason is so on brand. Makes me want to vomit.

Now open up the f$@#ing wallet and sign Bauer!!

What's to say he does? You're only guaranteed 1 year of Lynn vs 6 of Dunning.

I like this in a one year vacuum. Long term this gives me heebie jeebies

I’m fine with it. Dunning is a 4/5 starter with TJ on his record. If you’re relying on him down the road for an important game, you’re probably in trouble.

Garbage deal Fuck you reinsdorf