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This is the fucking point that everyone is trying to make to you but you are too busy making a big deal about a ball being thrown over the fence. AJ CAME IN KNOWN AS AN ASSHOLE AND THE SOX WON WITH HIM AND IT WAS FINE AND WE ALL LOVED HIM BECAUSE HE WAS OUR ASSHOLE.

This is always your way of arguing...you make some fluffy statement backed with nothing but your opinion...people quote you stats countering your opinion...you say the stats are meaningless...then offer no counter data...then typically you demean the person you are disagreeing with and say they are not addressing the argument. Do you think maybe this is the reason SO MANY people on this board have called you a dick? Your position was "clubhouse cancers destroy teams" and so I merely googled most hated players in baseball and quoted you the top five in order. AJ was not an all time great outside of being a great ass and yet he was instrumental in the Sox winning the WS.... Billy Martin's WS teams used to have fist fights in the dugouts. Sure when you have a fringe team like the early 2010's White Sox a couple of bad personalities can make them look terrible but please show me some evidence in any sport (Isiah Thomas was supposedly a monster, Michael Jordan gave out no, no one likes Aaron Rogers). If your revised position is "Bad players that are jerks don't help you win" or "great players that are jerks don't help bad teams win" I will happily agree.

Im not sure if you've been watching the news lately, but it turns out many attorneys are completely insane and are so stupid that I wouldn't hire them to answer phones for my assistant.

That's part of why it was a bad move to trade 5 years of a #4 for 1 year of a #2. Not only is it a bad time for JR to extend a veteran pitcher, but why would Lynn want to extend now? He's in his thirties, has made good money, so the team has no leverage -- and next year's FA situation is almost certainly going to be better because there will be more clarity on revenue streams around the league. No one knows whatthis season is going to start like, but EVERYONE expects fans in the seats by the end of it. Don't try too hard to make it make more sense. The FO has not been given the resources to "do it right," so they're "doing the best they can," and that's gonna make a lot of moves they make seem weird because we can all see that there were better alternatives available.

I want TLR locked up for a minimum of 5 seasons.

Thank you very much and I think I speak for the rest of Soxtalk in hoping that they caught it early enough to give you hope. I pray that you and your family are given the strength to endure.

Good post. I live in Pittsburgh and the real concern here (and maybe a good thing for us White Sox fans) Is there is an industry belief that Musgrove has yet to even reach his peak. He started demonstrating his potential after he came off the IR last year. He was downright unhittable over his last few starts as he has really started to pound his ++ slider more and more. Musgrove has elite secondaries, what keeps him from being a TOR is he doesn't have a dominating fastball even though he can push it to 94. Joe just turned 28, so he is now entering his prime. Put a better team behind him, one that can score runs and this big guy can consume innings ala Lance Lynn. Having him in the 4 hole behind Gio, Dallas and Lance would be a big bag of riches and would assist our bullpen having 4 guys who can carry the mail. If you can get Joe, GET HIM. That said I don't want to trade Nick and I don't think we'd have to. I think the Pirates like their MI prospect base especially with Nick Gonzalez looking like a potential star at 2B down the line. If anything the Pirates probably would be interested in a power hitting corner outfielder, catcher or even pitching. I think a package of Stiever or Matthew Thompson and Adolfo plus maybe a lotto ticket could get the Sox in the park. Talk is that the catching prospect for Toronto, Kirk, was the headliner of a potential trade deadline deal involving Musgrove. He's a bit higher rated than Adolfo, Thompson or Stiever. I don't know what else was involved, if anything. I seriously doubt it was just Musgrove for Kirk.

...we're all splitting hairs and yelling at each other... over a player that isn't going to sign here.

Is this the last move of 2020?

He seems to think one of the 4 lottery tickets the Cubs got back is equal to Kopech?? Weird

I don’t get who is he building a trade for. Is that supposed to be for Darvish? If so, why is the price ridiculously higher than what the Padres actually paid?

That Rogers ballot makes me feel bad about baseball and life in general. Also this would be the first time in a while no one is elected, right? Like, quite a few years?

My god you are high.

Valid points made on both sides about whether the Sox should pursue Bauer on a one year deal. After reading the 2019 SI piece (linked below) about him, I tend to side with those who do not want to take the chance of having that @hole destroy team chemistry. https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/02/19/trevor-bauer-cleveland-indians-training-tools-twitter-controversy-cy-young Bauer may not get what he wants (a large one-year Contract) given the reticence of owners to spend during a pandemic. At the right price i suppose you sign him and hope he gets off Twitter, shuts up with his ReTrumplican politics (including climate change denial) , and makes an effort to be a good teammate. I don't know...maybe just pass on that dude.

He's a very good pitcher who I would love to have on the Sox, especially on a short contract. Playoff, Pennant and World Series odds go way up in our favor with Bauer in the rotation. None of the arguments that he is a bad dude will sway my opinion. I have always thought he was the obvious play for the Sox this offseason to put a strangle hold on the AL Central.

Bauer is a mid-rotation starter who flashes top-end performance before reminding everyone once again that he's not an ace. The idea that this guy is worth anywhere near Kershaw/Sale/DeGrom/Scherzer/Price/Greinke/Verlander, etc. money is nuts. I'd be willing to overpay the guy just because the Sox are in position to overpay a FA given the cheapness of their core ATM, but he's not actually worth it on paper. IMO $25M is an overpay that is worth it to the Sox. $30M per for 1-2 years is also better for the Sox than trading away top SP prospects. But if Bauer wants neither, fine, go elsewhere and be a bad contract over there.

I keep wanting to bump this topic because I want to force a move into existence.

Ty cobb was actually fine, his biographer made up a bunch of shit not dissimilar to eight men out.

Lynn would want to extend now because his last contract was that of a pitcher people thought was falling apart. 3/$30 from the Rangers is nothing. He has earned $56 million in his career. If he can get 2/$40 as an extension, suddenly he is nearly (counting this year) doubling his career earnings over 3 years. With the uncertainty of the lockout next offseason, if you could get that in writing right now, without having to worry about being stuck taking a 1 year cheap deal in March, you take that.

Why would we extend a RH first baseman now when we have 7 years of control already?

TBH the most likely extension that isn't getting talked about is Andrew Vaughn.

It’s risky for Hoyer in the sense that Cubs’ fans are likely going to get very impatient when they’re a Top 3-5 MLB franchise but are acting like the TB Rays. Especially whenever they look at their Marquee charges to bills or attempt to purchase anything in the neighborhood outside the ballpark. But the curious thing is the second biggest issue with Epstein for the latter half of his Cubs’ career (after bad free agent deals) was the almost complete inability to develop their own pitching. Davies will likely be gone by August. Why not address THAT? Because fixating on position players alone has proven to be a mistake in hindsight. If you trade Bryant/Baez/Contreras and then Kimbrel for half his salary...that leaves fans with just Rizzo and Hendricks to cheer for. Which won’t be easy for any Cubs’ fan who revisits the feeling around the franchise four or five years ago to digest. Arguably, Darvish, Contreras (two years left on contract), Hendricks and Bryant/Baez in walk years should be comparable pieces to what the Sox auctioned off in their rebuild. Early returns though, suggest the very worst possible timing in history to be doing such a thing.

Thanks. And that means we hopefully have at least another $21M to work with as I believe last year’s payroll was around $130M on a full season basis. The challenge is Hendriks will likely eat up $13M of that if we are able to convert, leaving potentially only $8M for a #4 starter and a bat. Quintana, Richards, Paxton, & Kluber might end up taking one year deals, but I’m confident they all get $10M+, which means we need Jerry to push this thing closer to $135M to $140M or will need to settle for C tier free agents to fill out our remaining holes or skip a bat altogether. I’m definitely concerned they add Hendriks and then go super cheap elsewhere, which would put us in a dangerous spot from a depth perspective. And that really sucks, because for $140M or a 7.5% payroll increase vs 2020, we could probably add Hendriks, one of those starters, and La Stella or Schwarber. Do that and you immediately have a fairly complete roster to start the season and keep most of your prospect currency intact for whatever holes present themselves, all for an extra $10M that will have no bearing on the quality of life for anyone in our ownership group.

Gio seems like the kind of guy who will want to be part of this competitive window...and RH knows how to whisper the right words in his target's ear. Having Katz in our corner doesn't hurt the chances either. I think Rick will get this done.

The argument shouldn't be "should the White Sox trade from organizational depth" it should be when and for whom. I know I'm a broken record but Musgrove Sept 26th, 2020 his greatest game ever by game score against Indians...who had already clinched a playoff spot, bottom 5 offense and Pirates got 8 runs in first 4. Sept 20th, 2020--his second greatest game score of his career against Cards...Sunday afternoon game after Saturday night game and the Cards were playing their TENTH road game in 7 days (three doubleheaders that week). Previous 32 starts 5.28 ERA. You really want to throw THREE assets including a top 6 prospect for that???? Sign Q for money only....let the young players improve their value in minors until trade deadline...see how our young major league pitchers are developing and then trade them for someone actually good from a team that is bad or is imploding...Castillo from the Reds, Bieber from the Indians, deGroom from the Mets or like that.

According to Spotrac, they're just under 110M (link) at the moment, with the salary estimations on Gio & ReyLo.

Don't be so pessimistic. Every time we discuss a player the Sox sign, or trade for, regardless if it's keeping someone like Abreu or signing Eaton the issue of age comes up in a negative way. Eaton is a solid player and experienced

I didn't know Katz made those comments. Thanks for letting me know. Perhaps that's why they seem to be looking into Musgrove closely as it seems Q is priced out of our range financially, if they want to still afford Hendriks.

I think that package of Thompson, Adolfo, Beard is pretty fair for both teams. I like that trade, and I’d be willing to give that up for Musgrove. I wouldn’t hate signing Richards or Quintana, but I think Musgrove is a notch above those guys.

Certainly a good point on Stiever, I agree, 2020 has to be taken with a grain of salt on some level. I think Musgrove is better than Richards. Richards lost his starting role in San Diego last year. For a cheap, depth option as potential protection against Cease/Rey failing off I wouldn't oppose it even still. And to answer your question about if it's better to keep those 3 players instead of getting Musgrove in my view no it's better to move them if we can get a sturdy entering his prime SP for them. There is a really high probability only 1 of those guys will actually make it given the fact most prospects don't make it. I do like Thompson and I like Stiever, but the Sox can strike now and may need another arm to do it. So I'd move any of them. The Sox are still trading from the "depth" of the system and the top talent remains. They still have Crochett and Kelley so it won't be like the farm system will be empty.

I agree on the 109 estimate

I had done more research on Musgrove to figure out what else could be driving the sizable differences between his ERA and FIP (as Fangraphs calls it E-F). As I noted the bad D of the Pirates and inconsistent BP play has a lot to do with it, but one thing I have overlooked is his pitching with men on base. This is what's keep his LOB% down, in other words more men scored against him when they get on base (again, some of this could be attributed back to the Pirates BP, but a lot of it is on him also). For his career, his overall OPS against is .740. However with men on base, it is .790, which is a pretty big difference compared to other pitchers. I sampled some of the pitchers with elite LOB%, and for their career, their overall OPS and OPS with men on base are about the same (granted some of these guys have the added luxury of pitching in front of elite BPs, e.g. Clevinger, Kershaw, Ryu), in fact, a guy like Verlander actually shifts to another gear with men on base the last 5 years, he's absolutely lights out. Even for a mid rotation starter, their difference is anywhere from marginal to .30 ish. Now I haven't seen Musgrove pitch more than a start or two myself, I don't know how well he could pitch from the stretch, but that really seems to be inflating his ERA compared to his FIP the last few years. 2020 is actually a year he posted a strong LOB% (14% increase from 2019). However since 2020 stats are SSS, there isn't a large enough sample of ABs with men on base to truly tell if Musgrove has made real improvements pitching from the stretch, at least not without seeing him pitch. I still believe he's an improved pitcher from 2019 based on his much improved secondary pitches, but I would say his ability to pitch from the stretch will be the determining factor between him being a legitimate #3 or even #2, or just a #4 starter with a shiny FIP and fWAR.

Whoever laughed at this is in for a tough reality check.

Gotta disagree with you here. Katz has already stated that Kopech will be on a strict innings limit next year and five starters is not enough to get through a normal season let alone a pandemic-impacted one. We need a solid #4 starter at minimum to ensure the most basic level of depth. I’ll keep saying it, but Kopech needs to the be #6 starter to begin the season (in AAA), Lopez the #7 starter (in bullpen), and Stiever the #8 (in AAA). Still a lot of uncertainty there, but most teams aren’t going to more than six legit starters outside maybe the Dodgers.

Good post. Thanks for the insight. I would easily give up Stiever and Adolfo for Musgrove. I know some people think that’s giving up too much, though.

Giolito and Robert are the two most pressing currently I believe.

Both are affordable. LaStella will be needed since Madrigal might not be healthy to start the year and I get a feeling TLR might like LA Stella better anyway. He provides Moncada long hauler COVID insurance at 3b, too. Give him 1/8m. We can get Schwarber for 1/5-6m. Play musical chairs with him and Eloy at LF/DH. Honestly, if we can get Hendriks plus those two, I'd be fine not adding another SP if we are maxed out. I think Kopech and Cease can hold down 4/5.

Logic!

Are they actually that high? I only get to ~$109M ignoring signing bonuses and leaving three roster spots open for outside additions. If my numbers are correct, that means we’d be ~$31M away from a $140M payroll figure, which is probably what it would cost to add the three guys you mentioned. I’m still fairly confident we spend on a closer and a #4 starter, but just not sure if Jerry will allow us to splurge on that bat. I see that being a late January or early February addition when someone is desperate for a job and is willing to take something like 1/$5M from us.

Irrelevant but i wabted to wish u all my fellow sox fans hapoy bew year with heslth to everyone of u and your families, unfortunately 2020 closes for me bad csuse today new years rve i diagnosed with lung cancer,hapoy new year!!!!

Yep have a feeling Jerry wants to wait for more COVID clarity and CBA agreement.

I don't see any extensions happening for established players at the moment, given JR and the economic climate. Now, something low where the team has all the leverage on a guy like Madrigal, perhaps.

^Eddie Murray got in on the first ballot. 85%

This is a key point. With Boras controlling the executive board of the players union there will most likely be some type odmf work stoppage. With the decreased revenue from last year, both the union and the owners would be wise to stockpile money.

With the year coming to a close, I thought it might be interesting to check back in on that U of I testing data to see how it played out over the course of the semester. Aside from the initial wave associated with all the kids coming back onto campus to start the semester, it seems to have held up fairly well. The case positivity mainly stayed between ~0.3% to ~0.6% with some outliers on each side, and the total cases per day stayed generally well below 50 until the October surge that hit state/nationwide. Even then, it still stayed below 50 more often than not; there was just a notable uptick in positive cases. I get that it's impossible to know for sure, but it doesn't seem glaringly obvious to me that the students would be any safer remote learning. Score one for the physicists and the epidemiologist they worked with?

He spends when there is a high degree of certainty that revenue will offset costs. Look at our payrolls after the 2005 season when attendance was sky high and tell me that isn’t the case. The problem is he doesn’t want to take on any financial risk, so until fans start showing up he won’t spend more than what he’s confident will be covered.

Trubisky has a far better chance of being above avg next year than a 2nd rounder does so why not build the best team around him as possible. Draft O-line in the 1st and 2nd. If they want a QB to develop take one in the 4th or 5th.

I don’t know. Quarterbacks named Brady and Prescott started and they weren’t first rounders. Why not have a kick ass offensive line and a quarterback that is above average at best if you can’t get a decent one in the first round?

True.