Probably a bit early to look ahead, but at the same time there's very little likelihood that we catch the Rays or that Oakland/Seattle catch Houston. Only thing really TBD is 3 games in Houston or Southside. So wanted to discuss the rotation and how people would like that to lineup for a potential matchup.
Lynn - home era 2.60, road era 2.31, day era 1.25, night era 3.18. One GS against HOU, 4ip, 6runs, 13.50ERA. Career 5ERA at minute maid, poor against houston last year with a 12era, 16 runs in 11IP last year. really, he's done poor at 4 ballparks in his career ... wrigley, minute maid, yankee ... and suprisingly PNC.
Giolito - Home era 3.79, road era 3.60, day era 4.98, night era 2.92. One game against HOU this year, complete game 3 hitter, 1r.
Cease Home era 3.22, road era 5.37, day era 3.05, night era 4.97. 2 GS against HOU, 9ERA, 10R
Rodon home era 2.45, road era 2.32, day era 3.40, night era 1.81. 2 GS against HOU, 0.64ERA
As much as i love lance lynn and would say he's the ace of this team, his numbers against the Astros over the past 2 years is poor. Every out in the postseason is big, so something to think about when picking game 1/game 5 starter.
Meanwhile Rodon has cleaned up against Houston ... has even road/home splits as well.
Cease clearly has an advantage pitching during the day and at home. some guys respond okay to different routines, some need that day to prepare.
Giolito seems to be one of those guys. and that doesn't surprise me. he seems to be methodical and maybe it's as simple as afternoon games he can't get comfortable in his routines?
Of course all of these stats can be skewed by a start or two and not sure how different they look going back to other seasons ... but it's worth discussing.
Assuming Houston has a better record, I'd go:
Rodon
Lynn
Travel Day
Cease?
Giolito
Travel Day
Rodon or Lynn?
This lines up Cease at home, also lines him up in Game 3. I chose this assuming that if things go wrong we'd need a decent amount of innings from the bullpen & that a Kopech/Crochet could be fresh enough 3 days later to come in for high leverage 2IP relief. You could very easily sway me in any rotation breakdown. I'd also consider Giolito out of the gate, switching with Rodon. Cease at 4 makes sense too, because correct me if I'm wrong, but that would lineup for a bullpen day for whoever starts game 3, meaning they could give you an inning?
Also wonder how TLR historically has handled arms in the playoffs. I feel like this phenomenon of being on a super short leash is over the past 6-8 years. Like, didn't it really, really start with Bumgarner? Which now that i think of it is like 10 years ago... But either way TLR wasn't really around then. So wonder if he's a quick leash, or maybe more of the Ozzie 5 CG in a row mentality.