I’ve never met another person whose entire evaluation is to take the previous season and assume that continues on forever. I also don’t know how anyone could be using ERA as their primary pitching metric in this day & age.
Secondly, what is a top 100 prospect worth? Are they all worth the same and if your answer is no, then what type of top 100 prospect is Cease worth?
Also, why was Giolito with 2 months of control worth a legit 50 FV prospect, but two years of Cease plus a potential compensation pick is worth the same? If you say it’s because of the “market”, who are all these free agent SPs with legit TOR ceilings that will be affordable to teams like the Orioles?
Finally, how do you know there wasn’t a strong deal last year? There are rumors that Hahn was asking for Jackson Holiday until very late in the process (i.e. not serious negotiating). Perhaps Elias made an offer that would be to Getz’s liking now? It wouldn’t be the first time two teams couldn’t agree to a trade at the deadline and then for it to happen in the off-season (Sale, Lynn, etc).