Picks:
Dodgers run line - this is an easy one obviously. its about as big of a mismatch as there can be in baseball... only worries are Buehler's exit velocity and high flyball %. I can see him getting dinged for a 2-3 run homer possibly, but outside of that he's been good. Hopefully when he gives up the homer it's bases empty. Outside of that this should be a rout. weaver has been trash, serving up 11% barrels which is just entirely too high and the dodgers are too good to lose this one.
Jays over Yanks - value is good here. I think it's a slight edge to the jays here. happ has been better of late, and actually his underlying numbers show he should continue to improve, it's just the jays are top 5 in league in offense. they are taking walks, not chasing, and mashing. while the going is good, got to pile in.
Indians run line - this one is going to be very, very small. almost in pass territory. --- **** Junis is on mound today, not singer, all about the same though *****but the indians haven't really been very good. they were bottom of the league, now of late are league average. mckenzie on mound has been a rock star in all metrics, however still just his 4th start. that scares me with that juice. paying him like he's done this for years. Royals have been trash without soler and the team is just bad. bullpen is bad. etc. etc. feels like a fools bet to play this too big. but royals are so bad that i think i'll end up small, probably ML too.
On fence here because of fantasy implications playing with me... but i think you have to take the brewers over tigers. everythign is trending towards a brewers breakout soon. bullpen looking better, offense starting to click, etc. tigers are opposite. they had a nice run for a two week stretch but their offense and bullpen turning back into the tigers. I think i have to play brewers ML here. but another small play.
PASSING ON:
Passing on: Padres - juice is high, clev has been better of late, but his metrics don't support the juice/name recongnition in vegas at this point. rockies on the road aren't great, good names, but they chase too much. I'm waiting to see the k props if it's at 4.5 i'll take a stab at clev on a small bet.
Passing on our Sox - toyed with a game over, or maybe a sox TT over, but pirates bulpen better of late and not sure what you'll get out of a musgrove. all of his numbers are trash, but i still love him. I'll have fun watching, but with money in my pocket.
Braves/Marlins - marlins f5, however passing on this too. everything lines up right for marlins here. sixto has been on fire, kyle wright should be in AAA if not for terrible pitching out of braves. but marlins offense is really bad of late and braves offense is top 5 as well. pair that wtih sixto's third start overall? meh.. i can see the marlins being up early, but not enough to take my money and play it.