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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/15/2023 in all areas
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I'd prefer we acquire more well rounded players with our one legitimate trade chip.7 points
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6 points
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4 points
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Quite sad how in the worst division in baseball, the Sox will clearly have the least amount of talent4 points
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4 points
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Now we're getting outspent by the Royals this offseason...that's a pretty big accomplishment, to lose a two-team race to the bottom. It's pretty preposterous to think Getz hitting the ground running is providing any significant advantage when they're not even attempting to compete in the first place.4 points
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Nothing personal against the OP, but can we please limit LaRussa threads to one a day.4 points
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I don’t want to trade for all of these utility players on the orioles than either.4 points
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@baseball_gal_aly - I see you lurking! Let’s hear your pessimistic Cease take after the Glasnow trade.4 points
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The lesson is if you are in such bad shape you need to rebuild, don't let the same people that got you in thar mess try to rebuild the team. At some point, they will make the same mistakes and have the same results that weren't good enough before.3 points
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I don't know if this string is the best place for this, but I just read an interesting article on Fangraphs about how horrible the White Sox were with roster depth. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-not-to-build-for-depth/ Spoiler alert: They had no one to plug in from the minors, their waiver churn didn't work, and they just ended up playing guys who weren't ready.3 points
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Look at the roster. The answer is obvious on if they will be competitive or not.3 points
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3 points
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And the least amount of interest to get better The least amount of interest to pay someone, anyone who can play baseball WE SUCK!!!3 points
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3 points
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Glasnow is electric when healthy, but a five year deal seems extremely risky for him on the wrong side of 30 Nice when you have a huge budget3 points
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He's an advisor to Reinsdorf. He was an advisor to Reinsdorf before he was manager. It's no different than before except everyone now is on hyper LaRussa alert.3 points
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Also, you know you have a problem when it’s 3am and all you can think about is Dylan Cease trade packages.3 points
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Yeah who cares about offense! It’s not like you need that to win any games or anything!2 points
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2 points
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Literally went from a team many picked to win the WS to one of the three worst teams in baseball within two years2 points
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That is reasonable. Discectomies are tricky for pitchers so much of it will depend on how much and how long the nerve was compressed. The tissues due to the surgery will heal in 4 weeks, the disc itself doesn't have significant nerve fibers in the outer rings. After tissue healing it's just stretching the involved tissues. The nerve healing is the wildcard. It can take months or a year in severe cases. But in his scenario, a couple of months is reasonable.2 points
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O's have to give to get. They aren't going to have roster space for all these dudes, and at some point they need to supplement their roster, especially on the pitching side. I am not taking anything but an A+ offer from anyone else until the O's meet my price.2 points
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2 points
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An insane contract for a dude who averaged like 80 innings over his career.2 points
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2 points
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He couldn’t have been an advisor to Reinsdorf when he was helping ruin other teams.2 points
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I think the White Sox will not sign Yamamoto so we might as well move on................................2 points
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Well the good news is that you can't give your two cents when you've only got one cent to spend.2 points
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2 points
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The SP market really heated up today as predicted. With Tyler Glasnow off the board, these are the SP with TOR potential available: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (9/$225) Blake Snell (7/$200M) Jordan Montgomery (6/$150M) Dylan Cease (2/$20M) For teams with less means or willingness to take on long-term risk, middle of the rotation starters available include: Shota Imanaga (5/$85M) Lucas Giolito (2/$44M) Marcus Stroman (2/$44M) Michael Wacha (3/$36M) Shane Bieber (1/$12M) After that you’re looking at a mix of lower ceiling guys, wild cards, scrap heap signings, and players with off the field baggage. For instance, Mike Clevinger is the top pitcher on both MLBTR & Fangraphs’ top FA lists not mentioned above. Things worth pointing out. That contract projection for Yamamoto is likely light and 10/$300M is very possible. Snell greatly outproduced his peripherals last year and has only made 28+ starts once in the past five years. Montgomery has performed well in recent years but with below average stuff and K rate. The MOR guys all have warts hence why their prices are expected to be much lower. Given the amount of teams desperate for quality SP, it’s not hard to see why a SP like Cease who ranks 1st in starts made, 4th in K rate, 5th in Stuff+, and 8th in fWAR from 2021 to 2023 would be incredibly high demand. Two points of reference on Dylan’s potential value. Free agent wise, his best comp would be Aaron Nola, who got a 7/$175M deal in free agency. Yes, Nola has the lengthier track record, but both are coming off somewhat similar 2023 seasons after monster 2022 seasons. Regardless, I think this would be a fair expectation for Cease. However, for surplus valuation purposes, on a two year deal in this market, I think he’d get $75M to $80M. Given projected earnings of $20M to $25M over the next two seasons, we’re talking about $50M to $60M in expected surplus value. Trade wise, Glasnow is the best comp and he just went for what I’d consider a 50 FV pitching prospect plus a lesser OF prospect. Based on an old Fangraphs assessment of prospect value, a 50 FV pitching prospect would be expected to provide roughly $20 in value over the life of their control period. Looking at Glasnow, I think an optimistic projection would be ~4 wins next year, which would put his expected surplus value at ~$15M. However, Glasnow has truly elite stuff and offers a team like the Dodgers even more value because they can more easily manage his innings until the playoffs. Add in the extension, and you can see why he commanded the package that he did. So what does this mean for a potential Cease trade? Given his stuff, durability, control, & cost, I would expect him to be valued at the higher end of the range or ~$60M in expected surplus value. Conceptually, I believe that means we should expect one 55 FV prospect, one 50 FV prospect, and one 45 FV prospect or alternatively three 50 FV type prospects of varying degrees. Packages I could see based on this analysis include: Orioles: Kjerstad, Ortiz, & Horvath Dodgers: Busch, Sheehan, & Pages Braves: AJ S-S, Waldrep, & Grissom A fourth lesser prospect would be possible in each trade, but I ultimately expect three potentially impactful pieces coming back regardless of trade partner with the quality of the third piece dictated by the headliner. TLDR - Cease should get us an absolute haul and it’s only a matter of time.2 points
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Since this is Getz first year in the job there is no historical evidence either way. Until we have a body of evidence of his work, I'm not going to assume that he is competent or not. I'll base my view on evidence not assumptions that may be biased. It's the researcher in me. I'm just pointing out that someone on his staff probably has some inside knowledge of a pitcher he has know for a decade and it may have influenced the decision. So far he has said one of his goals was to improve team defense. He has definitely done that. We'll see where he goes from here.2 points
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They may never sign another free agent again. A guy like Flaherty making $14 after the season and red flags he had is nuts.2 points
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2 points
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Well, duh. Any guy who's married is adamant about not being the decision maker.1 point
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Chuck Comiskey was the biggest single shareholder. It was Veeck's group that owned 54% of the team after the sale. I made the correction.1 point
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1 point
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Isn't this what happened in 2013? All the starters tanked, and they didn't replace them.1 point
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Their team was on the field and that was the problem. How on God's green earth did Rick/Kenny/Tony/Pedro/Jerry etc screw this up so badly??1 point
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who gives a rip. These players the Royals are bringing in are all past their primes.1 point
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They are always all hype. The yankees always tend to keep the ones that matter and discard the trash. A NYY prospect that is moderately strong offensively in single A will catapault to the top 100 immediately and stay there for 4 years despite rarely growing and still end up finding their way in a trade for a starting pitcher.1 point
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1 point
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Pretty crazy that if you don't want to spend big money on players, spend it in scouting and development and then you can just cycle through good players and trade them before they get super expensive and you restock the farm and have suitable replacements on the cheap ready to fill the hole that was created. Seems like this would be perfect for a guy like JR.1 point
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I don't want to pay $150.00 for the season, and I don't understand the blackout rules, so I'd be pretty angry to get the package, then find out I can't watch certain games, depending on where I am. I'm too lazy to try to figure out the best way to give MLB my money right now. Especially with a "free" alternative.1 point
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So yeah I'm definitely going with it's the losing that sustains him.1 point
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