Abreu trade "unlikely"

[Balta1701]

Again, why can't the White Sox trade them now, and sign them later if there is a need and they are worth the money?

 

It's pretty much a free look at how they will age, and you get some assets for assets you don't need while you aren't going to contend. You obviously will have competition, and their new teams will have some sort of say, but they save their current salaries for a couple of seasons, so if they are worth it later, they can pay them more then.

If he was willing to sign a 4/$80 extension and he was moved to the Red Sox, why wouldn't they offer him such an extension to keep him off the market? the logic for other teams is the same, if they think he's a good player and will remain so until he's 35 then it makes good sense for them to lock him up rather than playing the 2019 free agent market for Smoak and Goldschmidt...and their teams might well lock those guys up too.

[ChiSox59]

That contract would be perfect.

 

Sure, but why would he sign that? He'll probably get 2 years and $40M the next 2 seasons. So he's effectively getting 2 guaranteed years at $20M per. Security? Sure...but I think he'd do better in FA in he doesn't fall flat on his face the next two seasons.

[Bob Sacamano]

Sure, but why would he sign that? He'll probably get 2 years and $40M the next 2 seasons. So he's effectively getting 2 guaranteed years at $20M per. Security? Sure...but I think he'd do better in FA in he doesn't fall flat on his face the next two seasons.

 

For what would be his age 33 season and on? Probably better but not much.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just a general observation about AAV and excess value, as I notice a lot of people using that to lower their perception of an Abreu return at his salary.

 

Does it not ignore supply and demand and pretend as though any of 30 teams can have any player at what they view as appropriate value WAR for dollar spent?

 

There are only so many consistent top 10 hitting first basemen in baseball. The whole league these days ttys so hard now to accouunt for defense, it overinflates guys like Hayward, and undervalued almost all 1b in my opinion. Part of that is less steroids in the game too.

 

Just a thought when people say groome+chavis (or whatever) is too much for abreu

Along these lines, not all WAR is created equal because of the simple fact there is only so many positons. The more WAR you can get out of an individual positon the greater overall value provided to the team. What this implies that each incremental WAR out a given position is worth more than previous one. So when people say the market value of WAR is $10M per, it’s really a flawed assumption. Teams should pay much less for that first unit of WAR than the second and so on. In other words, a 4 WAR player like Abreu is definitely worth more than double of a comparable 2 WAR 1B. Surplus values should take this factor into account and rarely do I see that happen.

[shipps]

I think Jose would probably sign a contract lower than market value to stay with Sox. He loves it here, he feels loyal to the org, and is motivated to help grow the young talent.

[ptatc]

I still think it could also mean "Abreu is not going to be here in 2020". If he's not going to be here in 2020, because he won't sign or because you know something else about his medicals, then I think you must move him now. His value is not likely to go up any farther - you can make a case (I think a wrong one) that Garcia's value is going to go up, but Abreu is coming off a great year and still has 2 years of control left. He's not going to raise his value even with a great first half.

 

We cannot allow ourselves to be an 85+ win team led by the youngsters in 2019 and then lose our veteran 1b/DH. That is the worst case scenario, and we should do what is necessary to avoid it.

I disagree that he should be traded just because he won't be with the Sox in 2020. There needs to be a veteran presence for the young players during the maturation proceeds to success.

 

If they are offered an overwhelming group of prospects it's a different story.

[southsider2k5]

If he was willing to sign a 4/$80 extension and he was moved to the Red Sox, why wouldn't they offer him such an extension to keep him off the market? the logic for other teams is the same, if they think he's a good player and will remain so until he's 35 then it makes good sense for them to lock him up rather than playing the 2019 free agent market for Smoak and Goldschmidt...and their teams might well lock those guys up too.

 

He can want to sign that deal with the White Sox, but not for the Red.

[southsider2k5]

Relevant for the trade market for Abreu

 

Jerry Crasnick‏Verified account @jcrasnick 4h4 hours ago Of the 117 #MLB players who hit 20-plus HRs this season, 16 are free agents. Could the surplus of power hitters change how teams approach the offseason?

 

 

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2161090...gers-come-cheap

eetings.

[Jose Abreu]

So it sounds like we asked for Devers or Benintendi and the talks are off for the time being.

 

Heyman

 

The White Sox are said by one source to have made a request that included at least one young player currently on Boston’s major-league roster, and apparently the request either halted talks or at least appears to have left the sides thinking a deal won’t be easy.

[Chisoxfn]

So it sounds like we asked for Devers or Benintendi and the talks are off for the time being.

 

Heyman

Would JBJ qualify as a young player on their major league roster?

[Eminor3rd]

I think so.

 

I think you'd have to be willing to guarantee the fifth year. 5/$100mm is fair.

[Jose Abreu]

Would JBJ qualify as a young player on their major league roster?

The way I read it, I thought he meant "young" player as in somebody who was recently in the minor leagues. JBJ is entering his age 28 and 6th Major League season so I'd consider him as more of an "in his prime" player than a young player.

 

This is also coupled with Cafardo having removed the White Sox from his list of teams interested in Bradley.

[hi8is]

So it sounds like we asked for Devers or Benintendi and the talks are off for the time being.

 

Heyman

Both arms and both legs. This has been what I've pointed to expecting Rick requiring for a trade to be consummated... and again, as such, it probably ain't happenin.

[Quin]

So it sounds like we asked for Devers or Benintendi and the talks are off for the time being.

 

Heyman

 

Lmao Rick

[bmags]

Quick to assume it was Devers or Benintendi, could be Rodriguez, Red Sox likely went after Abreu because he’d be cheaper than paying Santana so I’m unsurprised if they balked at any ML pieces.

[hi8is]

Rodriguez

Good call there too - without a doubt fits Heymen's description.

[caulfield12]

Would anyone really trust Smoak or Logan Morrison mostly based on last season?

It’s about the same as believing in Avi Garcia. Maybe one standard deviation in increased confidence.

 

It’s easy to say xyz player like those two or Belt could replace Abreu, but picking the right bargain bin has been incredibly elusive on the offensive side.

[steveno89]

I think you'd have to be willing to guarantee the fifth year. 5/$100mm is fair.

 

I would not feel comfortable signing Abreu to a 5/100 extension right now, especially with him being on the wrong side of 30. He's a quality player, but why pay full retail now?

 

The Sox are in a position where they absolutely should have a high asking price for him because it is only a two year guaranteed contract. Something around a 4 year/70 million deal with a 5th year team option could be doable. There's just not much incentive to pay more than that for him though.

 

Sox are playing this the right way, listening in on Avi/Abreu but holding a high price.

 

 

[chitownsportsfan]

I would not feel comfortable signing Abreu to a 5/100 extension right now, especially with him being on the wrong side of 30. He's a quality player, but why pay full retail now?

 

The Sox are in a position where they absolutely should have a high asking price for him because it is only a two year guaranteed contract. Something around a 4 year/70 million deal with a 5th year team option could be doable. There's just not much incentive to pay more than that for him though.

 

Sox are playing this the right way, listening in on Avi/Abreu but holding a high price.

 

Putting 20 million yearly on the payroll until 2022 doesn't make a lick of sense. It makes zero sense considering the Sox already control Abreu for two of those five years. It makes negative sense when you consider he's already on the wrong side of 30.

 

I think two things are true right now:

 

1) Jose Abreu's value is as high as it's ever going to be trade wise right now, this offseason

 

2) That isn't a reason to trade him in itself

 

There's no rush. The Sox are going to have a helluva lot more info about their contention window next offseason. If Jose is on the club and is coming off something like a 290/350/550 year and the club is primed to contend in 2019 and there's payroll available then sign him then. Marginal wins are more important then. Jose Abreu's value to the Sox will be more relative to what it is now.

[TheTruth05]

So it sounds like we asked for Devers or Benintendi and the talks are off for the time being.

 

Heyman

 

Love this. This is how it's done,you tell em Rick.

[FT35]

Love this. This is how it's done,you tell em Rick.

 

Exactly. It's the Red Sox who are inquiring...not us. The pressure is on them to ante up because they are the ones in "win now" mode. I think it's funny all the Boston fans saying this prospect or that player is TOO MUCH for Abreu. Well...it doesn't really matter because if it's too much, you don't get the player you're asking for if you don't match the price. I know the logic is profound...but if you believe a certain player is the missing link to a championship run, you pay to get him. If not, you pay an inflated amount to get someone not as good on the FA market and hope it works out in your favor. Not much else to it. Go sign Adam Lind if that's closer to your price range.

[Bob Sacamano]

Exactly. It's the Red Sox who are inquiring...not us. The pressure is on them to ante up because they are the ones in "win now" mode. I think it's funny all the Boston fans saying this prospect or that player is TOO MUCH for Abreu. Well...it doesn't really matter because if it's too much, you don't get the player you're asking for if you don't match the price. I know the logic is profound...but if you believe a certain player is the missing link to a championship run, you pay to get him. If not, you pay an inflated amount to get someone not as good on the FA market and hope it works out in your favor. Not much else to it. Go sign Adam Lind if that's closer to your price range.

 

I'm thinking they sign Santana. That way they hold onto their last few chips and don't have to go over 4 years or sign Hosmer long-term.

Edited November 30, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Rowand44]

I obviously could be wrong but I don't think we have any intention of actually trading Jose. Now I'm sure Rick is asking around to see if he can get a Devers out of someone but he knows that's not going to happen and unless it did than Jose stays. Just my opinion.

[witesoxfan]

I obviously could be wrong but I don't think we have any intention of actually trading Jose. Now I'm sure Rick is asking around to see if he can get a Devers out of someone but he knows that's not going to happen and unless it did than Jose stays. Just my opinion.

 

Kind of how I feel too, which is how I felt last offseason as well. Abreu is about a 3 WAR player but is valued by the Sox as a 5 WAR player. Unless some team wants to pony up, the Sox are not going to be in any rush to move him.

[Superstar Lamar]

If either of those guys are on the table (rather than the Red Sox saying straight out no), I would be happy to sweeten the deal with minor league talent. Would Abreu and Fulmer make it happen?

 

A late 2018 OF of Jimenez, Benintendi and Garcia brings a smile to my face.