Has anyone done a breakdown of the 2021 Seattle Mariners?
They went 90-72, but their run differential of -51 runs should have left them at 76-86! So they were 14 games better than where they should have been.
The Sox? 93-69, with an expected 97-65 record.
I was looking at Stathead baseball, part of Baseball Reference, on the White Sox scoring and leads summary. I was thinking about whether a better bullpen might improve the Sox' record.
In Stathead, there's a chart for Inning-by-inning W-L record. You can see the team record when ahead, tied, or behind by inning. The Sox record didn't look very good, so I started searching for a comparison. I first looked at the Tampa Bay Rays. But then I found the Seattle Mariners!!
Look at this chart.
Tied
Sox
Mariners
Rays
6th
11.-15
15-9
18-15
7th
5.-14
16-6
13-10
8th
5.-13
18-5
13-12
9th
5.-8
14-4
8.-17
10th
5.-6
13-7
7.-12
11th
1.-0
4.-2
2.-6
12th
XX
0-1
1.-1
The White Sox had a losing record when tied in the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th, then went 1-0 when tied entering the 11th.
The Rays had a winning record when tied beginning the 6th, 7th, and 8th, but losing records for the 9th, 10th, and 11th, with a 1-1 record to start the 12th.
But the Mariners? Winning records when tied from the 6th-11th, with a 0-1 record to start the 12th. And these weren't just slightly over .500 records like the Rays. The Mariners won a very hefty percentage of their games when tied in the 6th inning or later.
Now one note should be added here. You can't total the columns. If a team is tied after the 6th but wins the game, that goes down in the ledger. But if no one scores in the 6th, that same game will be tied in the 7th. And so forth. So there is some carryover going on here.
Still, combined with the skewed expected W-L numbers, it seems curious to me.
Is there any kind of lesson here?
Is there any chance that an improved bullpen could improve the Sox' record when tied late in games? Interestingly, the Sox had a better record than the Mariners when ahead from the 6th inning on. But they also won a lot fewer games than Seattle when behind from the 6th inning on. This is shown in the 42 comeback wins for Seattle v. 32 for the Sox. (The Rays had 46).
So, if the Sox and their bullpen did well with leads, why did they do so poorly with late ties? The Sox did much better percentage-wise in 2020.
I don't have the answers, but I'm putting this here to see if anyone does.