So continuing forward with this, I’m going to first focus on the rotation and the broader plan there. My hope is that Cease is moved this off-season (ideally for positional prospects) and that would essentially leave us with one starter in Kopech. Looking inward first, we do have a lot of pitching prospects that are going to begin their 2024 seasons in the upper minors. Nastrani is probably the closest to the majors, but Mena, Eder, Cannon, Bush, and several others have a shot at being ready at some point. That being said, we should build up enough pitching depth so we don’t have to rush any of these young arms. Let them come up when they prove they are ready for an extended shot.
Based on the above, that means we need to add three legit starters that we can pencil into the rotation. Given we are punting the 2024 season, I’m actually ok with a hodge-podge of lesser candidates competing for the #5 spot. Touki wasn’t great last year, but he did put up solid back-end numbers over his last six outings and at a minimum he can be a solid swing-man on the cheap. He’d enter camp as my favorite for the #5 job, although I’d have him compete against whatever lottery ticket arms we end up taking fliers on (and we should pick up several more guys like him, Patiño, García, Honeywell, etc.). Doesn’t sound like Davis Martin will be ready right away, but he’d be the guy I’d plan on giving this role to in the second half if Touki doesn’t appear to be the guy.
So with two spots technically filled, it’s time to get to the meat of the rotation. To start, I’d be looking at one year deals for two guys who were unproductive or hurt for the Yankees this past season: Luis Severino & Frankie Montas. The former made 18 starts for the Yankees this year and was absolutely terrible, but may have had some bad HR luck and could be a change of scenery guy. What’s promising is he was very good in 2022 and his pure stuff last year doesn’t appear to be radically different. I’d offer him a 1/$12M deal and try to tack on a team option for 2025 at $20M in exchange for a buyout of $3M. That would give him a $15M guarantee, but I’d ultimately settle for a one & done.
As for Montas, he basically didn’t pitch last year (1.1 innings in Sep) after having shoulder surgery early in May and enters the off-season as a massive wild card. He was obviously very good with the A’s but struggled after getting traded to the Yankees in 2022. It’s really tough to project how much he’ll get on the open market, but my guess is he will also be limited to one a year prove it deal. I’d offer a very similar contract to one I proposed to Severino. The main difference would be a slightly lower base salary at $10M but with $2M in incentives based on starts made. I’d offer the same exact team option / buyout structure, but again would be perfectly fine with a one and done deal since a productive Montas has real flip value at the deadline.
To fill out the rotation, I’m going to test my strategic priorities and sign 26 year Cuban RHP Yariel Rodriguez to a sizable multi-year deal. He was a dominant reliever in the Nippon League back prior to shifting to a starting role for Cuba in the WBC. Now, my view on him is entirely based on very limited second hand reports, but he sounds like he has a starter’s repertoire along with the stuff to be a back-end reliever as a fall-back. Not sure what that costs you nowadays, but I’m willing to gamble on a say 5/$40M contract. Again, that may be a bit too high or low, but as long as my scouts feel he has the upside of a #3 type starter with the floor of a quality setup man, I’m willing to take a gamble in a range around that amount.
In summary, these moves would result in the following rotation:
Luis Severino ($12M)
Frankie Montas ($12M)
Yariel Rodriguez ($8M)
Michael Kopech ($4M)
Touki Toussaint ($1.5M)
To me, that’s a great use of rotation innings in a lost season and all at a very reasonable cost. And as hinted at above, Nastrini (and possibly others) would be a real threat to take one of these roles as soon as his performance and/or injuries/trades permit. Even if the veterans don’t perform well, they buy us some time with the young arms. If they do perform, they provide legit trade value at the deadline or possibly some 2025 stability if the team options were to come to fruition. Regardless, I like how these moves fit the broader strategic roadmap I outlined in my previous post and I’d give Getz huge kudos for pulling something like this off vs. grabbing a bunch of safe innings-eaters.